The Housing Chronicles Blog: Do we need a new & improved New Deal?

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Do we need a new & improved New Deal?

Princeton Professor Alan Blinder argues in the New York Times that the best lessons to be taken away from the latest boom-and-bust cycle is a need for some kind & gentle regulation that provides just enough guidance so the greedy don't get carried away by future misadventures:

An inordinate share of the dodgiest mortgages granted in recent years originated outside the banking system. They were marketed aggressively, sometimes unscrupulously, by mortgage brokers who were effectively unregulated; we have now lived to regret that arrangement. The need for a federal mortgage regulator — including a suitability standard for mortgage brokers — is painfully obvious.

Next, we should resist calls to scrap the “originate to distribute” model, wherein banks originate mortgages, which are then packaged into mortgage pools and turned into mortgage-backed securities that are sold to investors around the world. This seemingly convoluted model has given the United States the world’s broadest, deepest, most liquid mortgage markets. And that, in turn, has meant lower mortgage interest rates and more homeownership. These are gains worth preserving.

But the model needs some nips and tucks. A far less radical, though still regulatory, approach would require both originating banks and securitizers to retain some fractional ownership of each mortgage pool. Keeping some “skin in the game” should accomplish two things: make the banks and securitizers more attentive to the creditworthiness of the underlying mortgages, and reduce the tendency to play “hot potato” with mortgage-backed securities.

And while we’re on the subject of M.B.S., we must end the regulatory fiction that off-balance-sheet entities like conduits and S.I.V.’s are unrelated to their parent banks. (S.I.V. stands for structured investment vehicle, if you must know, but please don’t ask me the difference between it and a conduit.) Since last summer, we have seen one financial giant after another brought to its knees by losses that originated off balance sheet...

Because securities firms are now under the Fed’s protective umbrella, they must start operating as safely and soundly as banks. That means both closer supervision and less leverage...We should all take a deep breath here, because sharply reducing the leverage of securities firms, to bring it close to that of banks, will be a major change in the financial landscape. It will, for example, substantially reduce the profitability of investment houses and, therefore, reduce their scale. But that’s the price you pay for access to a publicly financed safety net...

Next come ratings agencies, whose recent performance has drawn criticism. The good news is that they are making good-faith efforts at change. They are improving their analytics, and guarding against conflicts of interest by hiring ombudsmen and submitting to independent third-party reviews...My Princeton colleague Dilip Abreu suggests paying ratings agencies with some of the securities they rate, which they would then have to hold for a while. Robert Pozen, head of MFS Investment Management, wants independent investors in the conduits to hire the agencies instead. Another idea would have a public body, like the S.E.C., hire the agencies, paying the bills with fees levied on issuers. If you have a better idea, write your legislators...

Everyone knows we live in a world of giant multinational financial institutions, huge cross-border flows of capital and increasingly globalized markets. Such an environment demands ever closer international cooperation and coordination among the world’s major financial regulators. But today’s level of international cooperation is wholly inadequate to the need. Perhaps the current worldwide financial crisis will finally persuade the world’s financial regulators that lip service is not enough...

...let’s be clear about the purposes of all these New Financial Deal reforms. They would not banish speculative bubbles from the planet. After all, there have been bubbles for as long as there have been speculative markets. But with each bursting bubble, new flaws in the system are exposed.

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