There is actually a precedent for this type of change: in the early to mid 1800s, the first
streetcars (then powered by horses or mules before the shift to electricity
later in the century) began plying the streets of Newark, New Orleans, New York
and Toronto.
By the 1890s, over 900
different streetcar routes nationwide helped to usher in the idea of ‘streetcar
suburbs,’ which were the first versions of transit-oriented developments built
around transit stops. Some ‘interurban’
lines also ran through rural areas in order to connect different urban cores,
thus creating the first far-flung exurbs on the periphery of a city’s economic
and geographic sphere of influence.
By the 1890s, over 900
different streetcar routes nationwide helped to usher in the idea of ‘streetcar
suburbs,’ which were the first versions of transit-oriented developments built
around transit stops. Some ‘interurban’
lines also ran through rural areas in order to connect different urban cores,
thus creating the first far-flung exurbs on the periphery of a city’s economic
and geographic sphere of influence.
What makes the driverless car concept compelling today is
the marriage of two technologies: detailed
maps and sensors which allow connected, computerized cars to drive (Google)
along with the growing popularity of car-sharing services (ZipCar, Uber, Lyft),
which are especially attractive to city-dwelling Millennials who have largely
postponed historical milestones such as buying cars and homes or getting
married.
So just what does this mean for land use and real estate
development? Firstly, the very act of
decoupling parking requirements from obtaining project approvals will have an
enormous impact on how we design office buildings, retail centers, high-density
multi-family projects and even the traditional single-family home.
If more than one-third of land in some cities today is
devoted to parking, the need for fewer spaces could free up valuable parcels
for better uses. If up to 30 percent of
traffic in downtown areas is due to people circling around looking for parking
spots, driverless cars would eliminate that extra congestion by dropping off
their riders and retreating to a centralized parking lot, much like cell phone
lots at airports.
If homebuyers don’t
have privately owned cars, driveways and garages (at least for storing cars) could
become unnecessary or optional. For
example, instead of driving to the nearest light rail stop, suburban residents
could order their shared, driverless car for that troublesome “last mile” while
dropping off their kids at school and (legally) emailing or texting colleagues
during their morning commute.
When people ask me what would change if I won the Lotto, I
don’t mention the big house or the red sports car: I simply wish for a driver to negotiate
California traffic for me, thus freeing me up for just about everything
else. Perhaps within a decade or so I
will get my wish.
