August existing home sales steady after four months of decline

Existing-home sales remained steady in August at 5.34 million units per year after four straight months of decline.  Sales were still down 1.5 percent year-on-year.

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June existing home sales dip for third straight month, prices rise to all-time high

Existing-home sales decreased for the third straight month in June, falling by 0.6 percent from May and down 2.2 percent year-on-year. The ongoing supply and demand imbalance helped push June’s median sales price to a new all-time high of $276,900, up 5.2 percent year-on-year.

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May existing home sales dip 0.4 percent from April, down 3.0 percent year-on-year

Total existing-home sales decreased 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.43 million in May from downwardly revised 5.45 million in April. With last month's decline, sales are now 3.0 percent below a year ago and have fallen year-over-year for three straight months.

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April existing home sales slipped again year-on-year due to lack of supply

Total existing-home sales decreased 2.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in April from 5.60 million in March. With last month's decline, sales are now 1.4 percent below a year ago and have fallen year-over-year for two straight months.

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March existing home sales up 1.1 percent from February but still down 1.2 percent year-on-year

Total existing-home  sales rose 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.60 million in March. Despite last month's increase, sales are still 1.2 percent below a year ago. The median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $250,400, up 5.8 percent from March 2017 ($236,600).

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February existing home sales rebound 3.0 percent from January, up 1.1 percent year-on-year

Despite consistently low inventory levels and faster price growth, existing-home sales bounced back in February after two straight months of declines, rising 3.0 percent from January.  Sales were also up 1.1 percent year-on-year.

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January existing home sales down 3.2 percent from December and 4.8 percent year-on-year

Due largely to a shortage of affordable inventory, total existing-home sales sank 3.2 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million from December 2017. After last month's decline, sales are 4.8 percent below a year ago (largest annual decline since August 2014 at 5.5 percent) and at their slowest pace since last September.

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December existing home sales down 3.5 percent from November, but 2017 best in 11 years

Existing-home sales subsided in most of the country in December, but 2017 as a whole edged up 1.1 percent and ended up being the best year for sales in 11 years. In December, existing-home sales slipped 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million from a downwardly revised 5.78 million in November. After last month’s decline, sales are still 1.1 percent above a year ago.

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November existing home sales rose 5.6 percent to strongest pace in almost 11 years

Existing-home sales surged for the third straight month in November and reached their strongest pace in almost 11 years, and were up 5.6 percent from October and 3.8 percent year-on-year. All major regions except for the West saw a significant hike in sales activity last month.

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October existing home sales rise 2.0 percent but still down 0.9 percent year-on-year

Existing-home sales increased in October by 2.0 percent to their strongest pace since earlier this summer, but continual supply shortages led to fewer closings on an annual basis for the second straight month.  After last month's increase, sales are at their strongest pace since June (5.51 million), but still remain 0.9 percent below a year ago.

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September Pending Home Sales Index flat from August, down 3.5 percent year-on-year on supply constraints

The Pending Home Sales Index was at 106.0 in September, unchanged from August.  The index is now at its lowest reading since January 2015 (104.7), is 3.5 percent below a year ago, and has fallen on an annual basis in five of the past six months.

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September existing home sales up 0.7 percent from August but down 1.5 percent year-on-year

After three straight monthly declines, existing-home sales slightly reversed course in September and rose by 0.7 percent, but ongoing supply shortages and recent hurricanes muted overall activity and caused sales to fall back on an annual basis, falling by 1.5 percent.

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August Pending Home Sales Index fell to lowest level since January 2016

The Pending Home Sales Index retreated 2.6 percent to 106.3 in August. The index is now at its lowest reading since January 2016 (106.1), is 2.6 percent below a year ago, and has fallen on an annual basis in four of the past five months.

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August existing home sales dipped 1.7 percent from July, up 0.2 percent year-on-year

Existing-home sales stumbled in August for the fourth time in five months as strained supply levels continue to subdue overall according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales gains in the Northeast and Midwest were outpaced by declines in the South and West.

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Pending Home Sales Index fell again in July as inventory remained tight

The Pending Home Sales Index decreased 0.8 percent to 109.1 in July. After last month's decline, the index is now 1.3 percent below a year ago and has fallen on an annual basis in three of the past four months.

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July existing home sales slipped 1.3 percent to lowest rate of year as prices rose 6.2 percent year-on-year

Total existing-home sales slipped 1.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.44 million in July. July's sales pace is still 2.1 percent above a year ago, but is the lowest of 2017. The median existing-home price for all housing types in July was $258,300, up 6.2 percent from July 2016 ($243,200). July's price increase marks the 65th straight month of year-over-year gains.

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June existing home sales drop 1.8 percent, largely due to lack of supply

Total existing-home sales decreased 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.52 million in June from 5.62 million in May. Despite last month's decline, June's sales pace is 0.7 percent above a year ago, but is the second lowest of 2017.

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Existing home sales rebounded 1.1 percent in May while sales prices reached new high

Existing-home sales rebounded in May following a notable decline in April, and low inventory levels helped propel the median sales price to a new high while pushing down the median days a home is on the market to a new low.

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April pending home sales index posts first year-over-year decline since December

The Pending Home Sales Index decreased 1.3 percent to 109.8 in April from a downwardly revised 111.3 in March. After last month's decline, the index is now 3.3 percent below a year ago, which is the first year-over-year decline since last December and the largest since June 2014 (7.1 percent).

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First Quarter 2017 Economic Update: Some Mixed Signals but Real Estate Remains Strong

This seems to be an odd time for the U.S. economy, which has remained somewhat sluggish since the beginning of the year. This compares to a rise of nearly eight percent in the S&P 500 since January 1st and a seller’s market for housing in which there simply isn’t enough inventory to satiate several years of pent-up demand.

Meanwhile, both business and consumer confidence – which have been at record levels lately due to promised changes in our byzantine tax code and reductions in business regulations – are starting to slightly wane due to a political system still mostly stuck in neutral.

GDP growth, which averaged just 1.6 percent in 2016 --- the lowest since 2011 – fell further to an initial estimate of 0.7 percent during the first quarter of 2017, due largely to consumers, businesses and state and local governments tightening their spending. However, not only is it likely that this estimate will rise with the second and third iterations, but, as of mid-May, analysts are forecasting growth in the second quarter at 3.6 percent as investments in fixed assets rebound. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book showed residential construction growth accelerating through the end of March as non-residential construction remained strong.

Job growth, which rebounded by 211,000 in April, started out very strong in January and February – ranging from 216,000 to 232,000 -- before dipping sharply to just 79,000 in March. However, given April’s official unemployment rate dipping to 4.4 percent – a 10-year low – March’s performance is widely being viewed as a temporary dip due to poor mid-month weather, fewer construction jobs being added, and a dip in retail employment as that sector continues to battle against online competitors.

In terms of inflation, while the Consumer Price Index (less food and energy) dipped 0.1 percent in March, it has still risen by 2.0 percent over the past year, or even with the target set by the Federal Reserve. The Producer Price Index reported similar trends, dipping 0.1 percent in March but up 2.3 percent over the past 12 months.

Not surprisingly, due to this somewhat murky collection of jobs and inflation data, in its most recent May meeting the Fed delayed raising interest rates until the labor market has stabilized further and inflation needs some more taming.

If there is one area which is not murky, it is confidence. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey has been on a high plateau since President Trump’s election, settling at around 97 in March and April. Nonetheless, a new trend in the survey has revealed stark differences based on political beliefs, with optimists in one corner and pessimists in the other, especially in terms of expectations for household incomes, inflation and unemployment. These partisan extremes can in turn cause instability and impact consumer spending.

Looking specifically at the building industry, builder confidence has remained at well over 60 since last September, and has averaged 68 since the beginning of 2017. In tandem with this confidence, construction spending rose for five straight months before slipping 0.2 percent in March. Although housing starts dipped 6.8 percent in March, they were still up over nine percent year-on-year. And, while March building permits rose a moderate 3.6 percent from February, they’re up by a robust 17 percent over the past year.

Similarly, sales of new single-family homes rose by 5.8 percent in March to an annual rate of 621,000 units, or a year-on-year increase of nearly 16 percent. Median new home sales prices rose 1.2 percent year-on-year to $315,000, but are still down from last year’s peak of $332,700 in December. At current sales rates, existing inventory would take 5.2 months to sell versus 5.5 months a year ago.

For existing homes, sales rose 4.4 percent in March to an annual rate of 5.7 million, which is also up nearly six percent from a year ago and marked the strongest month of sales since February of 2007. Median existing home prices rose close to seven percent year-on-year to $236,400, for the 61^st consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Although September inventory rose moderately to over 1.8 million homes to a still-brief timeline of just 3.8 months, it has fallen year-over-year for 22 consecutive months.

Looking ahead to 2017 versus 2016, the NAHB is projecting annual single-family starts to rise by 9.0 percent and multi-family starts to decline by 1.6 percent.In addition, look for a rise of 12.1 percent for new single-family homes to 626,000, and existing homes sales to increase 3.2 percent to 4.98 million.