The Housing Chronicles Blog: 8/1/18 - 9/1/18

Friday, August 31, 2018

August Chicago PMI slipped 1.9 points from July but still up 6.9 percent year-on-year

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer slipped to a three-month low of 63.6 in August, down 1.9 points from July's 65.5.  A softening in Supplier Deliveries, Order Backlogs and Employment offset gains in Production and New Orders, driving the decline in the Barometer. However, it still sits 6.9% higher on the year and continues to signal robust business conditions.


Final August consumer sentiment index remained subdued due to higher prices and interest rates

Although there was a small uptick in late August, consumer sentiment remained at its lowest level since January. Most of the August decline was in the Current Economic Conditions Index, which fell to its lowest level since November 2016. These results stand in sharp contrast to the recent very favorable report on growth in the national economy.


Monday, August 27, 2018

July Chicago Fed's National Activity Index fell to +0.13 from +0.48 in June

Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.13 in July from +0.48 in June. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.05 in July from +0.20 in June.


Thursday, August 23, 2018

2Q 2018 commercial/MF loan originations up 32.0 percent from 1Q and 4.0 percent year-on-year

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations, second quarter 2018 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations were four percent higher than during the same period last year and 32 percent higher than the first quarter of 2018.


Fed meeting minutes: More interest rate hikes, concerns about global trade disputes discussed

U.S. central bankers discussed raising interest rates soon to counter excessive economic strength but also examined how global trade disputes could batter businesses and households.


FHFA: 2Q 2018 house prices up 1.1 percent from 1Q and 6.5 percent year-on-year

U.S. house prices rose 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2018 and 6.5 percent from the second quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2018. FHFA's seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was up 0.2 percent from May.


July new home sales dip to lowest level in nine months, but still up 12.8 percent year-on-year

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000, the lowest rate in nine months. This is 1.7 percent below the revised June rate of 638,000, but is 12.8 percent above the July 2017 estimate of 556,000.


Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Mortgage applications rise 4.2 percent, rates flat at 4.81 percent

The Market Composite Index increased 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans rising 3.0 percent and refinance activity up 6.0 percent.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged from 4.81 percent.


Friday, August 17, 2018

2Q 2018 online retail sales grew 3.7 times faster than overall retail year-on-year

Online retail sales grew 3.7 faster than overall retail sales for the year ending in 2Q 2018. During the previous year, online retail sales rose by 15.5 percent versus 4.2 percent for all retail sales. The share of retail sales rose to 9.6 percent in 2Q 2018, up from 8.8 percent year-on-year.


Leading Economic Index rose 0.6 points in July to 110.7

The U.S. LEI increased in July, suggesting the US economy will continue expanding at a solid pace for the remainder of this year.  The strengths among the components of the leading index were very widespread, with unemployment claims, the financial components, and the ISM® New Orders Index making the largest positive contributions.

July housing starts rebounded 0.9 percent from June, but down 1.4 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,168,000. This is 0.9 percent above the revised June estimate of 1,158,000, but is 1.4 percent below the July 2017 rate of 1,185,000.


Thursday, August 16, 2018

Initial unemployment claims dip by 2,000 in weekly report

In the week ending August 11, initial unemployment claims were 212,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 215,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average.


July industrial production up 0.1 percent from June and 4.2 percent year-on-year

Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in July after rising at an average pace of 0.5 percent over the previous five months. At 108.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.2 percent higher in July than it was a year earlier.


July building permits rose 1.5 percent from June and 4.2 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,311,000. This is 1.5 percent above the revised June rate of 1,292,000 and is 4.2 percent above the July 2017 rate of 1,258,000.


Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Mortgage applications dip 2.0 percent, rates slip three basis points

The Market Composite Index decreased 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans down 30 percent and refinance activity remaining flat. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.81 percent from 4.84 percent.


Inflation expectations for business remain unchanged at 2.1 percent in the year ahead

Firms' inflation expectations went unchanged at 2.1 percent over the year ahead. Current economic environment: Sales levels remain "about normal," on average. Profit margins improved somewhat, and year-over-year unit costs increased somewhat to 2.0 percent, on average.


Retail sales up 0.5 percent in July and 6.4 percent year-on-year

U.S. retail sales rose a healthy 0.5% in July, although June's sales were reduced from a 0.5% to a 0.2% gain. Retail sales rose 0.6% minus gas stations and auto dealers.  Over the last year, retail sales have increased 6.4%, close to the long-run average since 1980.


2Q 2018 productivity up 2.9 percent from 1Q versus 1.3 percent year-on-year

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.9 percent during the second quarter of 2018, as output increased 4.8 percent and hours worked increased 1.9 percent. From the second quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2018, productivity increased 1.3 percent, reflecting a 3.5-percent increase in output and a 2.2-percent increase in hours worked.


August builder confidence drops one point to 67, buyer traffic index falls below 50

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged down one point to a solid 67 reading in August on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI index measuring current sales conditions inched one point lower to 73 while the component gauging expectations in the next six months all fell a single point to 72. Meanwhile, the metric charting buyer traffic dropped two points to 49.


Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Total household debt rose another 0.6 percent to all-time high, delinquency rates stable at low levels

Total household debt increased by $82 billion (0.6%) to $13.29 trillion in the second quarter of 2018. It was the 16th consecutive quarter with an increase, and the total is now $618 billion higher than the previous peak of $12.68 trillion, from the third quarter of 2008. Further, overall household debt is now 19.2% above the post-financial-crisis trough reached during the second quarter of 2013.

While overall delinquency rates have remained stable at relatively low levels, transition rates into delinquency have fallen noticeably for student debt over the past year, reflecting an improved labor market and increased participation in various income-driven repayment plans.


July Small Business Optimism Index rose to second-highest level in 45-year history

The Small Business Optimism Index marked its second highest level in the survey’s 45-year history at 107.9, rising to within 0.1 point of the July 1983 record-high of 108. The July 2018 report also set new records in terms of owners reporting job creation plans and those with job openings.

A seasonally adjusted net 23 percent are planning to create new jobs, up three points from June. Thirty-seven percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, a one-point increase from June.


Friday, August 10, 2018

Consumer sentiment slips to lowest level in nearly a year in mid-August read

Consumer sentiment slipped to its lowest level since last September, with the decline concentrated among households in the bottom third of the income distribution. The dominating weakness reflected much less favorable assessments of buying conditions, mainly due to less favorable perceptions of market prices.

These are extraordinary shifts in price perceptions given that consumers anticipate an inflation rate in the year ahead of 2.9% in early August, unchanged from last month. The data suggest that consumers have become much more sensitive to even relatively low inflation rates than in past decades.

Overall, the data indicate that consumers have little tolerance for overshooting inflation targets, and to the benefit of the Fed, interest rates now play a more decisive role in purchase decisions.

Second Quarter 2018 Economic Update: The Strongest Growth since 2014, But Will it Last?

It was certainly good news to hear that the initial estimate for GDP growth of 4.1 percent in the second quarter of 2018 was the fastest since the third quarter of 2014. This recent rate of growth compares to 2.2 percent in the first quarter of 2018, 2.3 percent in 2017 and 1.5 percent in 2016. As of early August, GDPNow was also forecasting third quarter growth of 4.3 percent, although both these GDP estimates and forecasts are likely to change as more information comes in.

Most of the surge noted during the second quarter was due to a boost in consumer spending (along with the highest levels of consumer confidence in years), exports, nonresidential fixed investment (including commercial real estate, factories and machinery) and government spending. It would have been even higher were it not for declines in private inventory investment by businesses and residential fixed investment (including home building and remodeling).

One political factor weighing heavily on the boost in growth was the export of goods, with its rise quadrupling from the first quarter to 13.3 percent, as numerous countries stocked up in advance in order to avoid real and potential retaliatory tariffs.   This export surge itself was responsible for about one full point of the 4.1-percent GDP increase. At the same time, the rate of import growth fell sharply to just 0.5 percent, indicating that domestic suppliers either had adequate inventories or capacity to meet demand.

Another political factor was the tax cuts enacted at the beginning of 2018, which boosted consumer spending after a lag in the first quarter, and led to large corporations buying hundreds of billions of their own shares, thus helping to support the stock market. A healthy stock market, in turn, improves both 401k balances as well as consumer confidence.

What we don’t know yet is if the export surge or the boost in consumer spending is sustainable, but we’ll find that out through the rest of the year.

For now, the job market remains tight, with July unemployment dipping back to 3.9 percent along with 157,000 new positions. Looking at just the second quarter of 2018 alone, job growth rose by over 21 percent versus the same quarter of 2017. Moreover, for the first seven months of 2018, job growth increased by over 16 percent versus 2017.

Wages, which had remained stubbornly flat throughout much of the economic recovery, surged during the second quarter of 2018 by 2.8 percent over the previous year, for the sharpest increase since the third quarter of 2008.

Still, with inflation slowly on the rise, most of these wage gains are being eaten up by higher costs for energy, transportation and shelter. Annual core inflation readings from the CPI, PPI and PCE Price Index have recently ranged from 1.9 to 2.8 percent versus the Fed’s preferred increase of 2.0 percent. It’s for that reason that we’re likely to see a total of four interest rate increases by the Fed this year, and up to three more in 2019.

For the housing market, although home builders continue to push forward on meeting demand, they’re up against several headwinds including higher mortgage rates (up 18 percent annually through the first week of August), higher building costs (especially tariffs on Canadian timber) and ongoing difficulties locating suitable land and labor.

Although average monthly housing starts and building permits did fall by a small amount between the first and second quarters of 2018, they were still up moderately for the first half of the year versus 2017. New single-family home sales, which averaged an annual rate of 646,000 in the second quarter of 2018, were also up 6.4 percent for the first half of the 2018 versus 2017.

The pricing premium for new versus existing homes, which approached 40 percent as recently as the end of 2017, steadily fell to just nine percent by June of 2018, thus making a new home much more competitive. In fact, forecasters are pointing to the new home market to drive the housing market in the near term, as the existing home market remains penned in by low inventory, increasing affordability issues and higher interest rates.

Still, with the backlog of unsold new single-family homes rising to 5.7 months in June, some builders are also facing similar affordability challenges with their buyers. In the long run, however, given the huge pent-up demand for housing in the U.S., only the most serious shocks to the economy are likely to derail the long and slow recovery.

July CPI up 0.2 percent from June and 2.9 percent year-on-year

The July CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, largely due to energy (+12.1%), transport (+4.0%) and shelter (+3.5%).  The 'core' index rose 2.4% year-on-year, for the highest increase in nearly 10 years.


Thursday, August 9, 2018

Initial unemployment claims dip 6,000 in weekly report

In the week ending August 4, initial unemployment claims were 213,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 214,250, a decrease of 500 from
the previous week's revised average.


Mortgage applications dip to lowest level in 2.5 years, rates remain unchanged

The Market Composite Index decreased 3.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier to its lowest level since January 2016, with purchase loans falling 2.0 percent and refinance activity down 5.0 percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances remained unchanged at 4.84 percent.


Bloomberg: Consumer comfort index rises to 17-year high of 59.3 in weekly update

U.S. consumer sentiment advanced to a 17-year high of 59.3, elevated by rosier views of the economy and personal finances.  This is the highest level noted since February 2001.


June wholesale trade sales slipped 0.1 percent from May but up 10.2 percent year-on-year

June 2018 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 0.1 percent from May but up 10.2 percent year-on-year. Inventories were up 0.1 percent from May and 5.1 percent year-on-year.


July Producer Price Index unchanged from June, up 3.3 percent year-on-year

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.3 percent year-on-year. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3 percent in July, and was up 2.8 percent year-on-year.


Wednesday, August 8, 2018

Consumer borrowing growth slowed in June as revolving credit use declined

Consumer borrowing slowed in June after hitting a six-month high in the prior month, but still rose at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.  Revolving credit, including credit cards, declined by 0.2% in June after rising 11.2% in May. This is the second drop in credit-card use in the past four months. Nonrevolving credit, including auto and student loans, rose 4.4% in June, and has been rising at a relatively steady pace in recent months.


July new home mortgage applications up 0.2 percent from June and 3.6 percent year-on-year

July mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 0.2 percent from June and 3.6 percent year-on-year.  MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally-adjusted
annual rate of 637,000 units in July 2018, up 8.5 percent from June.


Tuesday, August 7, 2018

July Employment Trends Index up 5.4 percent year-on-year

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in July, after increasing in June. The index now stands at 109.89, up from 108.72 in June. The change represents a 5.4 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

CoreLogic: June home prices up 0.7 percent from May and 6.8 percent year-on-year

CoregLogic:  June home prices increased nationally by 0.7 percent from May and 6.8 percent year over year. Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that the national home-price index is projected to continue to increase by 5.1 percent over the next year.


JOLTS: June job openings rose 0.5 percent as surplus of open positions remains

Although overall job openings were nearly flat between the final days of May and June (rising by 0.5 percent to 6.7 million), hires fell 1.67 percent while separations rose 1.53 percent. With 6.6 million unemployed persons in June (falling to 6.3 million in July), there still likely remains a surplus of open positions.


Friday, August 3, 2018

Service sector index dips 3.4 points in July to 55.7

The NMI® registered 55.7 percent in July, which is 3.4 percentage points lower than the June reading of 59.1 percent. There has been a ‘cooling off’ in growth for the non-manufacturing sector, and tariffs and deliveries are an ongoing concern. Still, the majority of respondents remain positive about business conditions and the economy.


June trade deficit rose to $46.3 billion as imports rose faster than exports

The nation’s international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $46.3 billion in June from $43.2 billion in May, as exports decreased and imports increased.


Online advertised vacancies rebounded by 170,800 in July

Online advertised vacancies increased by 170,800 to 4,651,500 in July, nearly erasing the loss of 171,633 noted for June. In July of 2017, the number of online job vacancies declined by 146,067.


Jobs rose by 157,000 in July, unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 157,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down  to 3.9 percent. This growth rate compares with 248,000 in June and 190,000 in July of 2017. Employment increased in professional and business services, in manufacturing, and in health care and social assistance.


Thursday, August 2, 2018

Initial unemployment claims rise by 1,000 in weekly report

In the week ending July 28, initial unemployment claims were 218,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 218,000.


Bloomberg: Consumer Comfort Index slips from 17-year high, but gender gap at highest level since 1990

Bloomberg: The weekly Consumer Comfort Index eased to 58.6 from a 17-year high 59 in previous week as the gender gap widened to 18.6 points in favor of men, up from 16.5 points in prior week.  This is the highest gap since 1990.


June factory goods orders rose 0.7 percent, up for second straight month

New orders for U.S.-made goods rose for a second straight month in June and were up by 0.7 percent, but business spending plans on equipment slipped from initial estimates, suggesting a further
slowdown was likely in the third quarter.


July planned job cuts fall to lowest level of 2018, but YTD cuts still up 6.7 percent from 2017

U.S.-based employers announced plans to cut 27,122 workers from payrolls during July, down both 27.1 percent from June and 4.2 percent year-on-year.  Although July's total was the lowest of the year, YTD job cuts are still up 6.7 percent from 2017. Still, nearly 90 percent of companies polled are in hiring or retention mode.


Wednesday, August 1, 2018

ISM Manufacturing Index dips to 58.1, high concerns regarding tariffs

The July PMI® registered 58.1 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the June reading of 60.2 percent.

Production and employment continues to expand in spite of labor and material shortages. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — had expansion increases, due primarily to negative supply chain issues, but at easing levels compared to the prior month. Price pressure remains strong, but the index softened for the second straight month.

Demand remains robust, but the nation’s employment resources and supply chains continue to struggle. Respondents are again overwhelmingly concerned about how tariff-related activity, including reciprocal tariffs, will continue to affect their business.


Mortgage applications dip 2.6 percent as rates rise to 4.84 percent

The Market Composite Index decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans falling 3.0 percent and refinances down 2.0 percent.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.84 percent from 4.77 percent.

FOMC Statement: Rates unchanged for now, but future 2018 hikes ahead

As expected, the Fed opted to keep interest rates unchanged for now, but warns of future rate hikes to come in 2018, perhaps as soon as September.


ADP: Private Sector Employment Increased by 219,000 Jobs in July

Private-sector employment increased by 219,000 from June to July, on a seasonally adjusted basis. 
This compares to 181,000 in June and 203,000 in July of 2017.


June construction spending fell by largest amount in over a year, but previous months' totals revised upwards

Construction spending fell 1.1 percent in June, the largest decline since April 2017. However, data for May was revised up to show construction outlays rising 1.3 percent instead of the previously reported 0.4 percent gain, and April's outlays increased 1.7 percent instead of the previously estimated 0.9 percent.