October CPI jumped up 0.3 percent, rose 2.5 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in October, the largest increase in nine months.  Over the last 12 months, the all-items index rose 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

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July CPI up 0.2 percent from June and 2.9 percent year-on-year

The July CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, largely due to energy (+12.1%), transport (+4.0%) and shelter (+3.5%).  The 'core' index rose 2.4% year-on-year, for the highest increase in nearly 10 years.

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CPI up 0.1 percent in June and 2.9 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June and was up 2.9 percent year-on-year. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June, and was up 2.3 percent year-on-year.

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Businesses' July Inflation Expectations Hold Firm for the Coming Year

Firms' inflation expectations went unchanged at 2.1 percent over the year ahead.  Sales levels remain "about normal," on average. Profit margins improved somewhat, and year-over-year unit costs decreased somewhat to 1.9 percent, on average.

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Producer Price Index up 0.3 percent in June and 3.4 percent year-on-year

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3 percent in June, down from 0.5 percent in May but up from 0.1 percent in April. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest 12-month increase since climbing 3.7 percent in November 2011.

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CPI rose 0.2 percent in May, up 2.8 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in April. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

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CPI rose 0.2 percent in May, up 2.8 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in April. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

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April CPI up 0.2 percent, annual increase dipped to 2.5 percent

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in April; over last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.5 percent. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in April and was up 2.1 percent for the 12 months ending April.

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CPI up 0.1 percent in March, 2.4 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent in March and was up 2.4 percent year-on-year, and notably higher than the 1.6-percent average annual rate over the past 10 years. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in March and 2.1 percent year-on-year, for its largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 2017.

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February Consumer Price Index up 0.2 percent from January and 2.2 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in February after rising 0.5 percent in January. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in February following a 0.3-percent increase in January and rose 1.8 percent year-on-year.

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January Producer Price Index rose 0.4 percent and 2.7 percent year-on-year

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January. Final demand prices were unchanged in December and moved up 0.4 percent in November.  The final demand index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended in January.

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CPI up 0.5 percent in January and 2.1 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in January, and was up 2.1 percent year-on-year. The index for all items less food and energy (i.e., core inflation) increased 0.3 percent in January, and was up 1.8 percent year-on-year.

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December CPI up 0.1 percent from November and 2.1 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in December,its largest increase since January 2017. The index for all items less food and energy increased 1.8 percent over the last year.

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November Consumer Price Index up 2.2 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in November and 2.2 percent year-on-year. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in November and 1.7 percent year-on-year.

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October Consumer Price Index up 0.1 percent from September and 2.0 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in October and was up 2.0 percent year-on-year. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in October and was up 1.8 percent year-on-year.

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September CPI up 0.5 percent from August and 2.2 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.5 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent.

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August CPI up 0.4 percent during the month and 1.9 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.9 percent.

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July CPI up 0.1 percent from June and 1.7 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.7 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent, the fourth month in a row it increased by that amount and up 1.7 percent over the previous 12 months.

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Second Quarter 2017 Economic Update: Slow, Steady Growth as Expansion Continues

Whether due to an actual “Trump bump” or other factors, so far the data is showing the second quarter of 2017 to be stronger than the first on multiple fronts.  Despite its relative age – which in another two years would be the longest recovery on record – the current expansion is still showing signs of life ahead.

According to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, the pace of recent growth has ranged from slight to modest, although there has been a mixed message on consumer spending, especially for auto sales, which were down three percent between the first and second quarters of 2017.

Still, this dip was reportedly partly due to automakers holding back on fleet sales to rental car companies and government agencies in order to help prop up brand values.

GDP growth, which averaged just 1.6 percent in 2016, did dip to 1.4 percent in the final estimate for the first quarter of 2017.  However, as of mid-July, analysts were projecting second quarter 2017 growth to rise to 2.4 percent due to improvements in construction spending, a rebounding manufacturing sector and continuing pent-up demand for housing.

Job growth averaged nearly 194,000 new positions per month in the second quarter, up substantially from under 170,000 in both the previous quarter as well as the same quarter of 2016, resulting in a June unemployment rate of 4.4 percent.  Labor markets continued to tighten across a wide spectrum of both low- and high-skilled positions, especially in construction and information technology.

However, as has been reported in the past, a wider range of industries are also reporting difficulty in finding qualified workers even as the expansion reaches into the furthest corners of the economy, including teenagers.  This shortage has certainly had some benefits for employees, with rising wage pressures for both low- and high-skilled positions prompting annual increases averaging about 2.5 percent.

Due in part to this relatively minor wage pressure, overall inflation remains low, with the Consumer Price Index (less food and energy) rising by 1.7 percent for the year ending in June 2017, or below the 2.0 percent target rate preferred by the Federal Reserve.  The Producer Price Index was slightly higher for the same period, rising by 2.0 percent for final demand minus more volatile indices for food, energy and trade services.

Looking next at consumer confidence, although the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey had been on a high plateau since last November, preliminary results for July were showing a split between future expectations – which have fallen sharply since their January 2017 peak – and current economic conditions, which have since rebounded to their March 2017 peak.  Moreover, given the small June dip in the Small Business Optimism Index, it’s possible that expectations for prolonged GDP growth rates of three percent in the future have softened, and what we’re likely to see is an annual growth rate of just above two percent for 2017.

Builder confidence remained bullish at a reading of 67 in June, and while the average for total construction spending in April and May of 2017 was down slightly from the first quarter of 2017, residential spending was up by one percent.  Even better, when compared against the second quarter of 2016, average residential construction spending in April and May was up by ten percent.

Although this extra spending did not show up meaningfully in the field during April or May, it certainly did in June, with both starts and permits rebounding sharply from May. In addition, year-on-year housing starts and permits for June were up by 2.1 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively.

New home sales, however, were up by over 11 percent during the same time periods to an annual rate of 610,000 units, while median new home prices rose to nearly $346,000.  At May’s sales rate, existing inventory would take 5.3 months to sell, up slightly from 5.2 months a year earlier.

For existing homes, the biggest challenge remains available inventory, with the pending home sales index dipping in both April and May from earlier in the year as the median sale price rose to $247,600.  This level marks a new peak, and is up 5.8 percent year-on-year.

Closed sales averaged 5.59 million in April and May of 2017, down 0.53 percent from the first quarter but up over four percent from the second quarter of 2016.  At current sales rates, inventory at the end of May would take 4.2 months to sell, down from 4.7 months a year earlier.

CPI flat in June, up 1.6 percent over past 12 months

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was unchanged in June, but has risen 1.6 percent over the past 12 months. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in June, its third straight such increase, and is up 1.7 percent year-on-year.

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