August building permits dip 5.7 percent from July, down 5.5 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,229,000. This is 5.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,303,000 and is 5.5 percent below the August 2017 rate of 1,300,000.

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August housing starts rebound 9.2 percent from July and 9.4 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,282,000. This is 9.2 percent above the revised July estimate of 1,174,000 and is 9.4 percent above the August 2017 rate of 1,172,000.

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July housing starts rebounded 0.9 percent from June, but down 1.4 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,168,000. This is 0.9 percent above the revised June estimate of 1,158,000, but is 1.4 percent below the July 2017 rate of 1,185,000.

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July building permits rose 1.5 percent from June and 4.2 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,311,000. This is 1.5 percent above the revised June rate of 1,292,000 and is 4.2 percent above the July 2017 rate of 1,258,000.

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June building permits dip for third straight month, down 3.0 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June dipped for the third month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,273,000, which is the lowest rate since September 2017. This is also 2.2 percent below the revised May rate of 1,301,000 and is 3.0 percent below the June 2017 rate of 1,312,000.

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June housing starts dip to lowest level since September 2017, down 4.2 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,173,000, dipping to the lowest rate since September 2017. This is 12.3 also below the revised May estimate of 1,337,000 and is 4.2 percent below the June 2017 rate of 1,225,000.

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May housing starts rebound to near 7-hear high, up 20.3 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,350,000. This is 5.0 percent above the revised April estimate of 1,286,000 and is 20.3 percent above the May 2017
rate of 1,122,000.

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May building permits down 4.6 percent from April but still up 8.0 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,301,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised April rate of 1,364,000, but is 8.0 percent above the May 2017 rate of 1,205,000.

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April building permits dip 1.8 percent from revised March numbers but up 7.7 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,352,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised March rate of 1,377,000, but is 7.7 percent above the April 2017 rate of 1,255,000.

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April housing starts dip 3.7 percent from revised March numbers but up 10.5 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,287,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised March estimate of 1,336,000, but is 10.5 percent above the April 2017 rate of 1,165,000.

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First Quarter Economic Update: Green Shoots Everywhere, but Tariff Impacts Unknown

By almost all measures, the U.S. economy continues to strengthen, for the 3rd-longest recovery of 33 different business cycles since 1854.

As of mid-April, GDP growth is estimated to have risen by 2.0 percent during the first quarter of 2018, but was recently downgraded with concerns about potential trade wars.  This growth rate compares to 2.3 percent in 2017 and 1.5 percent in 2016.

So far this year, inflation is being tamed by regular, planned rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, although the March Producer Price Index showed an annual growth rate of 3.0 percent, which suggests that businesses are facing higher costs before passing them into consumers.

While job growth did dip to 103,000 positions in March, the first quarter’s average of 202,000 is still up by nearly 14 percent from the same period of 2017.

The tax cut taking effect as of January 1^st, besides giving an extra boost to corporate spending, has also led to an increase in the personal savings rate of consumers, rising one full percentage point directly before and after the law took effect. 

Not surprisingly, this extra kick in paychecks has sent  consumer sentiment soaring to highs not seen since just after the turn of the 21^st century.

This has been, in essence, a Goldilocks economy: Running just hot enough to warrant gradual interest rate hikes to keep it from overheating while still providing consumers both the spending power and the confidence for optional purchases including homes, autos, travel and entertainment.

If there is a concern on the immediate horizon for the building industry, it’s the impact of tariffs on the economy in general, and homebuilding in particular.  Prior to the tariffs of three to 24 percent assessed on Canadian software lumber, new home prices were based more on factors such as location, quality and competition than construction costs alone.

Since then, however, prices have risen sharply, with the pricing premium for new versus existing homes rising to 35 percent, when 10 to 20 percent has been closer to the historical norm.

The cost increase has also had an impact on home prices, as more existing homeowners looking to upgrade stay put until more new home options become available.  More recently, ‘panic buying’ of foreign steel and aluminum to beat additional tariffs was mentioned by an Institute of Supply Management Report, driving up short-term prices and causing inventory shortages for spot buyers.

For their part, home builders are doing everything they can to ramp up production, with March building permits and housing starts up 7.5 and 10.9 percent, respectively, compared to a year ago.

Yet most of these gains were for multi-family homes, pointing to continuing challenges including not just the Canadian tariffs, but also finding suitable land and construction labor. 

In addition, with a recent report noting that average pay in construction is now nearly ten percent higher than for all private employees, these extra costs must either be absorbed by the builder or passed along in the form of higher prices.

Even with higher prices, however, one area in which builders have the upper hand over most existing homes is with green building.  

According to a study by the global consultancy Booz Allen Hamilton, green building was projected to grow at over 15 percent year-over-year from 2015 through 2018, not only outpacing overall construction spending, but also showing a significant impact on GDP, employment and earnings over the previous three-year study period.

More specifically, this growth would support an additional 3.9 million jobs and generate over $303 billion to GDP.

Green building is also a great investment in the future.  According to a report to the California Sustainable Building Task Force, upfront spending of two percent of overall construction costs can, over a structure’s lifetime, yield savings of more than ten times the initial outlay.

For new homes, estimates during the first quarter of 2018 would indicate year-over-year sales activity up by about 0.5 percent, with prices rising by 4.6 percent.

In the larger, existing home sales market, with February’s pending home sales activity falling by just over four percent year-over-year, NAR is adjusting their estimates for 2018 accordingly.  The group is now calling for annual sales to be flat versus 2017, and for home prices to rise by 4.2 percent following a 5.8-percent increase in 2017.

Still, the 4.2 percent growth rate would imply that Americans continue to view owning a home as an important investment, even if tax reform removed some of the benefits.  The homeownership dream lives on.

March housing starts rebound 1.9 percent from February and 10.9 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,319,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised February estimate of 1,295,000 and is 10.9 percent above the March 2017 rate of 1,189,000.

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March building permits rebound 2.5 percent from February and 7.5 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,354,000. This is 2.5 percent above the revised February rate of 1,321,000 and is 7.5 percent above the March 2017 rate of 1,260,000.

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February housing starts down 7.0 percent from January and 4.0 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,236,000. This is 7.0 percent below the revised January estimate of 1,329,000 and is 4.0 percent below the February 2017 rate of 1,288,000.

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February building permits tumbled 5.7 percent from January but still up 6.5 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,298,000. This is 5.7 percent below the revised January rate of 1,377,000, but is 6.5 percent above the February 2017 rate of 1,219,000.

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January building permits rose to 10.5-year high, up 7.4 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January rose to a 10.5-year high of 1,396,000. This is 7.4 percent above both the revised December 2017 rate and the January 2017 rate.

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January housing starts rebounded 9.7 percent from December to second-highest rate since Great Recession

Privately-owned housing starts in January rebounded sharply from weather-related dips in December to  1,326,000. This is 9.7 percent above the revised December estimate, 7.3 percent above the January 2017 level, and is the second-highest annual rate since the Great Recession.

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December building permits flat from November, down 2.8 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,302,000. This is 0.1 percent below the revised November rate of 1,303,000, but is 2.8 percent above the December 2016 rate of 1,266,000.

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December housing starts dip 8.2 percent from November and 6.0 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,192,000. This is 8.2 percent below the revised November estimate of 1,299,000 and is 6.0 percent below the December 2016 rate of 1,268,000.

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November building permits dip 1.4 percent from October but still up 3.4 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,298,000. This is 1.4 percent below the revised October rate of 1,316,000, but is 3.4 percent above the November 2016 rate of 1,255,000.

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