Second Quarter 2018 Economic Update: The Strongest Growth since 2014, But Will it Last?

It was certainly good news to hear that the initial estimate for GDP growth of 4.1 percent in the second quarter of 2018 was the fastest since the third quarter of 2014. This recent rate of growth compares to 2.2 percent in the first quarter of 2018, 2.3 percent in 2017 and 1.5 percent in 2016. As of early August, GDPNow was also forecasting third quarter growth of 4.3 percent, although both these GDP estimates and forecasts are likely to change as more information comes in.

Most of the surge noted during the second quarter was due to a boost in consumer spending (along with the highest levels of consumer confidence in years), exports, nonresidential fixed investment (including commercial real estate, factories and machinery) and government spending. It would have been even higher were it not for declines in private inventory investment by businesses and residential fixed investment (including home building and remodeling).

One political factor weighing heavily on the boost in growth was the export of goods, with its rise quadrupling from the first quarter to 13.3 percent, as numerous countries stocked up in advance in order to avoid real and potential retaliatory tariffs.   This export surge itself was responsible for about one full point of the 4.1-percent GDP increase. At the same time, the rate of import growth fell sharply to just 0.5 percent, indicating that domestic suppliers either had adequate inventories or capacity to meet demand.

Another political factor was the tax cuts enacted at the beginning of 2018, which boosted consumer spending after a lag in the first quarter, and led to large corporations buying hundreds of billions of their own shares, thus helping to support the stock market. A healthy stock market, in turn, improves both 401k balances as well as consumer confidence.

What we don’t know yet is if the export surge or the boost in consumer spending is sustainable, but we’ll find that out through the rest of the year.

For now, the job market remains tight, with July unemployment dipping back to 3.9 percent along with 157,000 new positions. Looking at just the second quarter of 2018 alone, job growth rose by over 21 percent versus the same quarter of 2017. Moreover, for the first seven months of 2018, job growth increased by over 16 percent versus 2017.

Wages, which had remained stubbornly flat throughout much of the economic recovery, surged during the second quarter of 2018 by 2.8 percent over the previous year, for the sharpest increase since the third quarter of 2008.

Still, with inflation slowly on the rise, most of these wage gains are being eaten up by higher costs for energy, transportation and shelter. Annual core inflation readings from the CPI, PPI and PCE Price Index have recently ranged from 1.9 to 2.8 percent versus the Fed’s preferred increase of 2.0 percent. It’s for that reason that we’re likely to see a total of four interest rate increases by the Fed this year, and up to three more in 2019.

For the housing market, although home builders continue to push forward on meeting demand, they’re up against several headwinds including higher mortgage rates (up 18 percent annually through the first week of August), higher building costs (especially tariffs on Canadian timber) and ongoing difficulties locating suitable land and labor.

Although average monthly housing starts and building permits did fall by a small amount between the first and second quarters of 2018, they were still up moderately for the first half of the year versus 2017. New single-family home sales, which averaged an annual rate of 646,000 in the second quarter of 2018, were also up 6.4 percent for the first half of the 2018 versus 2017.

The pricing premium for new versus existing homes, which approached 40 percent as recently as the end of 2017, steadily fell to just nine percent by June of 2018, thus making a new home much more competitive. In fact, forecasters are pointing to the new home market to drive the housing market in the near term, as the existing home market remains penned in by low inventory, increasing affordability issues and higher interest rates.

Still, with the backlog of unsold new single-family homes rising to 5.7 months in June, some builders are also facing similar affordability challenges with their buyers. In the long run, however, given the huge pent-up demand for housing in the U.S., only the most serious shocks to the economy are likely to derail the long and slow recovery.

Service sector index dips 3.4 points in July to 55.7

The NMI® registered 55.7 percent in July, which is 3.4 percentage points lower than the June reading of 59.1 percent. There has been a ‘cooling off’ in growth for the non-manufacturing sector, and tariffs and deliveries are an ongoing concern. Still, the majority of respondents remain positive about business conditions and the economy.

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June trade deficit rose to $46.3 billion as imports rose faster than exports

The nation’s international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $46.3 billion in June from $43.2 billion in May, as exports decreased and imports increased.

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ISM Manufacturing Index dips to 58.1, high concerns regarding tariffs

The July PMI® registered 58.1 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the June reading of 60.2 percent.

Production and employment continues to expand in spite of labor and material shortages. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — had expansion increases, due primarily to negative supply chain issues, but at easing levels compared to the prior month. Price pressure remains strong, but the index softened for the second straight month.

Demand remains robust, but the nation’s employment resources and supply chains continue to struggle. Respondents are again overwhelmingly concerned about how tariff-related activity, including reciprocal tariffs, will continue to affect their business.

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July Global Investor Confidence rebounds 1.0 point to 101.8, but investor sentiment remains depressed

The Global Investor Confidence Index increased to 101.8 in July, up 1.0 point from June's revised reading of 100.8.  It is possible that the prospects of escalating trade protectionism, political uncertainty, and lagging earnings growth continue to depress institutional investor sentiment.

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June trade in goods deficit rose 5.5 percent as imports outpaced exports

The international trade deficit was $68.3 billion in June, up 5.5 percent from $64.8 billion in May. Exports of goods for June were $141.9 billion, $2.2 billion less than May exports. Imports of goods for June were $210.3 billion, $1.3 billion more than May imports.

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Direct foreign investment in the U.S. fell sharply in 1Q 2018

Net foreign direct investment in the U.S. was $53.1 billion in 1Q 2018, the first quarter in which the tax cuts took effect.  This level of investment is down 43% from the same quarter of 2017 and 37% from the fourth quarter of 2017.

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Consumer sentiment slips in mid-July read but still at high level

Consumer sentiment slipped in early July but remained nearly equal to the average in the prior twelve months (97.7) and since the start of 2017 (97.4).  So far, the strength in jobs and incomes has overcome higher inflation and interest rates. The darkening cloud on the horizon, however, is due to rising concerns about the potential negative impact of tariffs on the domestic economy. While consumers may not understand the intricacies of trade theory, they have substantial experience making decisions about the timing of discretionary purchases based on prospective trends in prices.

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June service sector economy index rises another 0.5 points to 59.1 percent

The June NMI® registered 59.1 percent, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the May reading of 58.6 percent. There is a continuing concern relating to tariffs, capacity constraints and delivery.

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June manufacturing sector index up 1.5 points to 60.2, tariffs concerns cited for future

The June PMI® registered 60.2 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the May reading of 58.7 percent. Demand remains robust, but the nation's employment resources and supply chains continue to struggle. Respondents are overwhelmingly concerned about how tariff related activity is and will continue to affect their business.

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May U.S. trade deficit for goods narrowed for third straight month as exports rose

The US trade deficit in goods narrowed for the third consecutive month in May to -$64.8 billion as improved export performance outweighed a modest rise in imports during the month. This is also the smallest deficit for the economy since last September.

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June State Street Investor Confidence Index slips 2.1 points as global tensions rise

The Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 101.7, down 2.1 points from May's revised reading of 103.8. Escalating trade tensions across the globe, increasing protectionism, and diverging monetary policy between the major central banks have coincided with more cautious investor positioning.

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March U.S. trade deficit dropped 15.1 percent from February, but still up 18.5 percent YTD year-on-year

The goods and services deficit was $49.0 billion in March, down 15.1 percent from February. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $25.5 billion, or 18.5 percent, from the same period in 2017.

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April manufacturing index fell 2.0 points to 57.3 due to high input prices, tariffs and tight labor market

The April PMI® registered 57.3 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the March reading of 59.3 percent. Lead time extensions, steel and aluminum disruptions, supplier labor issues, and transportation difficulties continue. Demand remains robust, but the nation's employment resources and supply chains continue to struggle.

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April service sector economy index dips 2.0 points due to concerns about tariffs and inflation

The April NMI® registered 56.8 percent, which is 2 percentage points lower than the March reading of 58.8 percent. There was a slowing in the rate of growth that was mostly attributed to the decline in the Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes. The respondents have expressed concern regarding the uncertainty about tariffs and the effect on the cost of goods.

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First Quarter Economic Update: Green Shoots Everywhere, but Tariff Impacts Unknown

By almost all measures, the U.S. economy continues to strengthen, for the 3rd-longest recovery of 33 different business cycles since 1854.

As of mid-April, GDP growth is estimated to have risen by 2.0 percent during the first quarter of 2018, but was recently downgraded with concerns about potential trade wars.  This growth rate compares to 2.3 percent in 2017 and 1.5 percent in 2016.

So far this year, inflation is being tamed by regular, planned rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, although the March Producer Price Index showed an annual growth rate of 3.0 percent, which suggests that businesses are facing higher costs before passing them into consumers.

While job growth did dip to 103,000 positions in March, the first quarter’s average of 202,000 is still up by nearly 14 percent from the same period of 2017.

The tax cut taking effect as of January 1^st, besides giving an extra boost to corporate spending, has also led to an increase in the personal savings rate of consumers, rising one full percentage point directly before and after the law took effect. 

Not surprisingly, this extra kick in paychecks has sent  consumer sentiment soaring to highs not seen since just after the turn of the 21^st century.

This has been, in essence, a Goldilocks economy: Running just hot enough to warrant gradual interest rate hikes to keep it from overheating while still providing consumers both the spending power and the confidence for optional purchases including homes, autos, travel and entertainment.

If there is a concern on the immediate horizon for the building industry, it’s the impact of tariffs on the economy in general, and homebuilding in particular.  Prior to the tariffs of three to 24 percent assessed on Canadian software lumber, new home prices were based more on factors such as location, quality and competition than construction costs alone.

Since then, however, prices have risen sharply, with the pricing premium for new versus existing homes rising to 35 percent, when 10 to 20 percent has been closer to the historical norm.

The cost increase has also had an impact on home prices, as more existing homeowners looking to upgrade stay put until more new home options become available.  More recently, ‘panic buying’ of foreign steel and aluminum to beat additional tariffs was mentioned by an Institute of Supply Management Report, driving up short-term prices and causing inventory shortages for spot buyers.

For their part, home builders are doing everything they can to ramp up production, with March building permits and housing starts up 7.5 and 10.9 percent, respectively, compared to a year ago.

Yet most of these gains were for multi-family homes, pointing to continuing challenges including not just the Canadian tariffs, but also finding suitable land and construction labor. 

In addition, with a recent report noting that average pay in construction is now nearly ten percent higher than for all private employees, these extra costs must either be absorbed by the builder or passed along in the form of higher prices.

Even with higher prices, however, one area in which builders have the upper hand over most existing homes is with green building.  

According to a study by the global consultancy Booz Allen Hamilton, green building was projected to grow at over 15 percent year-over-year from 2015 through 2018, not only outpacing overall construction spending, but also showing a significant impact on GDP, employment and earnings over the previous three-year study period.

More specifically, this growth would support an additional 3.9 million jobs and generate over $303 billion to GDP.

Green building is also a great investment in the future.  According to a report to the California Sustainable Building Task Force, upfront spending of two percent of overall construction costs can, over a structure’s lifetime, yield savings of more than ten times the initial outlay.

For new homes, estimates during the first quarter of 2018 would indicate year-over-year sales activity up by about 0.5 percent, with prices rising by 4.6 percent.

In the larger, existing home sales market, with February’s pending home sales activity falling by just over four percent year-over-year, NAR is adjusting their estimates for 2018 accordingly.  The group is now calling for annual sales to be flat versus 2017, and for home prices to rise by 4.2 percent following a 5.8-percent increase in 2017.

Still, the 4.2 percent growth rate would imply that Americans continue to view owning a home as an important investment, even if tax reform removed some of the benefits.  The homeownership dream lives on.

Consumer sentiment rises to highest level since 2004 in early read, but upper-income households more wary

Consumer sentiment rose in early March to its highest level since 2004 due to a new all-time record favorable assessment of current economic conditions. All of the gain in the Sentiment Index was among households with incomes in the bottom third (+15.7), while the economic assessments of those with incomes in the top third posted a significant monthly decline (-7.3).

The decline among upper income consumers was focused on the outlook for the economy and their personal finances. In early March, favorable mentions of the tax reform legislation were offset by unfavorable references to the tariffs on steel and aluminum-each was spontaneously cited by one-in-five consumers. Importantly, near term inflation expectations jumped to their highest level in several years, and interest rates were expected to increase by the largest proportion since 2004.

Among the top-third income households, income expectations fell more and inflation expectations rose more; as these households account for more than half of all consumption expenditures, the data suggest that the relative lull in consumption in the 1st quarter may persist for another quarter.

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