Fed: Keep interest rates at current levels for now

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate.  On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent.  In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2 to 2-1/4 percent.

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FOMC Statement: Rates unchanged for now, but future 2018 hikes ahead

As expected, the Fed opted to keep interest rates unchanged for now, but warns of future rate hikes to come in 2018, perhaps as soon as September.

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Inflation update: PCE Price Index rose 0.2 percent in May and 2.3 percent year-on-year

The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent in May and was up 2.3 percent year-on-year. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent and was up 2.0 percent year-on-year.

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Fed hikes rate to highest rate since 2008, indicates two more increases in 2018

The Federal Reserve increased the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 1.75%-2%, the highest since September 2008. In raising its benchmark interest rate, the Fed cited an economy that is growing at a "solid" rate and would likely include two more rate hikes in 2018.

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Federal Reserve leaves interest rate unchanged in May meeting, suggests future increases will be slow

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has opted to keep its benchmark federal funds interest rate in the range of 1.50 to 1.75 percent. Although economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate, the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.

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March inflation tracker PCE Price Index flat from February, up 2.0 percent year-on-year

The March PCE Price Index was up 0.0 percent from February and 2.0 percent year-on-year.
Stripping out food and energy, it was up 0.2 percent from February and 1.9 percent year-on-year.

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Federal Reserve opts to hike interest rates another quarter point

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

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FOMC meeting minutes reveal continued growth despite hurricane-related disruptions

The information reviewed for the October 31-November 1 meeting indicated that labor market conditions generally continued to strengthen and that real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a solid pace in the third quarter despite hurricane-related disruptions.

Al­though the effects of the recent hurricanes led to a reported decline in payroll employment in September, the unemployment rate decreased further. Retail gasoline prices jumped in the aftermath of the hurricanes, but total consumer price inflation, as measured by the 12‑month percentage change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), remained below 2 percent in September and was lower than early in the year. Survey‑based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed on balance...

The U.S. economic projection prepared by the staff for this FOMC meeting was broadly similar to the previous forecast. Real GDP was expected to rise at a solid pace in the fourth quarter of this year, boosted in part by a rebound in spending and production after the negative effects of the hurricanes in the third quarter. Payroll employment was also expected to rebound during the fourth quarter.

Beyond 2017, the forecast for real GDP growth was essentially unrevised. In particular, the staff continued to project that real GDP would expand at a modestly faster pace than potential output through 2019. The unemployment rate was projected to decline gradually over the next couple of years and to continue running below the staff's estimate of its longer-run natural rate over this period...

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

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Fed opts to leave interest rates at current levels in latest meeting

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

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Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged for now, forecasts another raise this year

The Fed will start cutting its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, initially by just $10bn per month. The FOMC also left US interest rates unchanged, at 1.25% to 1.5%, but expects to raise them one more time this year, followed by three raises in 2018.

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Beige Book: Moderate economic expansion in July and August, but low for-sale home inventory

Economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate pace across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts in July and August. Both residential and commercial construction increased slightly overall. Low inventories of homes for sale continued to weigh on residential real estate activity across the country, while commercial real estate activity increased slightly.

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Fed meeting minutes reveal concern about weak inflation and possible halt to interest rate hikes

Federal Reserve policymakers appeared increasingly wary about recent weak inflation and some called for halting interest rate hikes until it was clear the trend was transitory.  The minutes also indicated the Fed was poised to begin reducing its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

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Federal Reserve opts to keep interest rates at current levels until inflation is higher

The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term...

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation...

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June Federal Reserve meeting minutes shows split on inflation outlook and asset sales

Federal Reserve policymakers were increasingly split on the outlook for inflation and how it might affect the future pace of interest rate rises.

The details of the meeting, at which the U.S. central bank voted to raise interest rates, also showed that several officials wanted to announce a start to the process of reducing the Fed's large portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities by the end of August but others wanted to wait until later in the year.

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Federal Reserve opts to hike key interest rate another 1/4 point

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

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Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggest another rate hike possible in June

Federal Reserve officials expected at their policy meeting this month that it would "soon be appropriate" to raise short-term interest rates, a signal the U.S. central bank could move in June at its next gathering.

The Fed also moved toward a consensus on a proposal to start gradually shrinking its $4.5 trillion in holdings of Treasury and mortgage securities later in the year.

Economic Update: Overall Improvement since the First Quarter of 2016

In its July monthly meeting, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee – which decides on interest rate policy – left the door open to whether or not we’ll see another rate hike in 2016. The good news is that the expected impacts from Brexit have been largely subdued.  In addition, the economy seems to be on a more normal path, with both June and July showing monthly job growth of 255,000 to 287,000, and an official unemployment rate of 4.9 percent.

GDP, which was just 0.8 percent in the first quarter of the year, was initially reported to have risen to 1.2 percent by the second quarter.  Moreover, in mid-August, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta had estimated third-quarter GDP growth at 3.6 percent, and boosted its forecast for residential investment growth from 0.4 to 2.4 percent.

Inflation is also stable, with the Consumer Price Index flat in July but rising by just 0.8 percent over the previous 12 months.  However, when subtracting out the more volatile indicators for food and energy, prices have risen by 2.2 percent over the previous year.  With an annual inflation target of 2.0 percent, should job growth reports remain positive in the coming months, then the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates before the end of 2016. Still, not all sectors of the economy are feeling the inflation pinch, with the Producer Price Index falling 0.4 percent in July and still down 0.2 percent for the previous 12 months, which is also why a rate hike is not a given.

For now, consumers remain cautious, with The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence holding steady at just over 97 on a 100-point scale in July after rising in June.  This latest survey suggests that although the economy will continue expanding at a moderate pace, attitudes regarding the job market and personal incomes remain cautiously optimistic.

Builder confidence is also positive, rising by two points to 60 in August, in which anything over 50 is positive.  The index measuring current sales rose two points to 65, while the index for sales expectations over the next six months rose one point to 67.

In the commercial real estate sector, CoStar’s value-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which focuses on the sales prices of higher-quality assets, advanced by 3.3 percent during the second quarter of 2016, while the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which includes more sales of smaller properties, rose 2.1 percent. While the office, industrial and retail indices all rose by 1.9 percent and the multi-family index increased by a close 1.8 percent, by far the most improved sector was hospitality, rising 4.5 percent to within one percent of its former peak.

Looking closer at housing, sales of new single-family homes rose for the fifth straight month in July to surpass 650,000 annual units, for a notable jump of over 31 percent from July 2015 and reaching the highest pace of new home sales since October 2007. In addition, at this sales rate, existing inventory would take just 4.3 months to sell, versus 5.2 months a year earlier, and falling to the lowest inventory level since June 2013. For all of 2016, the NAHB is forecasting single-family home starts to rise by about 10 percent, as those in the multi-family sector level off.  Nonetheless, future residential growth will continue to be hampered by shortages of labor and lots and higher regulatory costs.

In the existing home market, after four consecutive months of increases, July sales not only tumbled by 3.2 percent from June, but were also down 1.6 percent from the same month of 2015.  NAR is blaming this on a lack of affordably priced inventory, especially for starter condominium homes. As proof of this, the Wells Fargo Home Opportunity Index fell to 62.0 percent in the second quarter of 2016, the lowest rate since the third quarter of 2014. Over the last year, inventory levels have fallen by 5.8 percent and have declined year-over-year for the last fourteen months.  Consequently, with some buyers priced out of the market even at low interest rates, overall inventory levels would take 4.7 months to sell, up from 4.5 months in June.

Of course this demand for new supply is certainly good news for builders!  Although July housing starts were up 5.6 percent year-on-year, building permits inched up only 0.9 percent for the same time period. Yet given the challenges facing the industry including regulations, labor shortages and the difficulty finding affordably priced land, lack of available housing supply may be with us for some time.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at current levels but acknowledges improving economy

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market strengthened and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate rate.

Job gains were strong in June following weak growth in May. On balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months. Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has been soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports.

Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent.

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Federal Reserve delays future interest rate hike due largely to Brexit fall-out

Federal Reserve officials, already worried about surprisingly weak U.S. job growth, expressed concerns at their most recent meeting last month over the potential economic and financial market consequences of a British vote to leave the European Union.  Consequently, they decided on June 15 to hold their benchmark interest rate steady at between 0.25% and 0.5%.

They also said they wanted to see more data to determine if May's low job growth of 38,000 was an exception or a sign of a more pronounced labor market slowdown.

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Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate another potential rate hike in June

Federal Reserve Open Market Committee participants generally agreed that easing in financial conditions would support domestic economic activity. The Committee is prepared to raise rates at the June FOMC meeting as long as the incoming data cooperate with its outlook.

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