Consumer confidence inches up to 90.4 in August

Confidence inched upward in early August due to more favorable prospects for the overall economy offsetting a small pullback in personal finances. Home buying has become particularly dependent on low interest rates, with net references to low interest rates spontaneously mentioned by 48%.

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Retail sales flat in July but still up 2.3 percent year-on-year

Retail sales were unchanged in July, coming off a revised 0.8 percent increase in June. Retail sales in June were previously reported to have increased 0.6 percent. Sales rose 2.3 percent from a year ago.

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Producer Price Index declined 0.4 percent in July and 0.2 percent for previous 12-month period

The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased 0.4 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved down 0.2 percent for the 12 months ended in July.

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Job openings edged up in June and layoffs dropped to lowest level in nearly two years

U.S. job openings increased in June and layoffs dropped to their lowest in nearly two years as labor market conditions tightened further.

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Job growth surged to 255,000 in July vs. 188,000 expected

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 255,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and financial activities. Employment in mining continued to trend down.

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Planned job layoffs rose 19 percent in July but still down 8.7 percent year-to-date

The pace of layoffs ticked up 19 percent in July, as employers announced plans to shed 45,346 workers from their payrolls.  To date, employers have announced 359,100 job cuts in 2016. That is down 8.7 percent from the 393,368 job cuts announced from January through July 2015.

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Service sector index fell 1.0 percentage point in July but still well into positive growth territory

The NMI® registered 55.5 percent in July, 1 percentage point lower than the June reading of 56.5 percent.  Most comments reflect stability and continued growth for their respective companies.

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Manufacturing sector index fell 0.6 percentage point in July but still indicates growth

The July PMI® registered 52.6 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the June reading of 53.2 percent and posting growth in the manufacturing sector for the fifth consecutive month.

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Personal income and consumer spending both rose in June

Personal income increased $29.3 billion (0.2 percent), disposable personal income (DPI) increased $24.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $53.0 billion (0.4 percent) in June.

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Private sector jobs grew by 179,000 in July

Private sector employment increased by 179,000 jobs from June to July according to the ADP Employment Report.

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Construction spending drops 0.6 percent in June, mostly due to non-residential projects

U.S. construction spending fell for a third straight month in June with spending on nonresidential construction dropping by the largest amount in six months.  Some analysts believe warmer-than-normal winter weather caused builders to move up the start of some projects, causing the second quarter to look weaker.

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Second quarter 2016 GDP rose at 1.2 percent in advance estimate

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016 according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source. The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 26, 2016.

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Employment costs rose 0.6 percent in 2Q 2016 and 2.3 percent year-on-year

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2016.  Over the last 12 months, compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.3 percent.

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Consumer sentiment dips slightly in July to 90.0

Consumers were a bit less optimistic in July than one month or one year ago, although consumer confidence remains at a reasonable high level. The recent decline was due to rising concerns about prospects for the economy, that were mainly expressed by upper income households.

Uncertainties surrounding global economic prospects and the presidential election have made consumers more cautious in their expectations for future economic growth as well as employment growth. Strength in personal finances and low interest rates will maintain the growth in real consumption at 2.6% through mid 2017.

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Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at current levels but acknowledges improving economy

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market strengthened and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate rate.

Job gains were strong in June following weak growth in May. On balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months. Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has been soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports.

Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent.

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Pending home sales inched up 0.2 percent in June; up 1.0 percent year-on-year

Pending home sales were mostly unmoved in June, but did creep slightly higher as supply and affordability constraints prevented a bigger boost in activity from mortgage rates that lingered near all-time lows through most of the month,

The Pending Home Sales Index inched 0.2 percent to 111.0 in June from 110.8 in May and is now 1.0 percent higher than June 2015 (109.9). With last month's minor improvement, the index is now at its second highest reading over the past 12 months, but is noticeably down from this year's peak level in April (115.0).

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Consumer confidence mostly unchanged in July after June's rise

Consumer confidence held steady in July, after improving in June. Consumers were slightly more positive about current business and labor market conditions, suggesting the economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace. Expectations regarding business and labor market conditions, as well as personal income prospects, declined slightly as consumers remain cautiously optimistic about growth in the near-term.

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May Case-Shiller Index up 1.2 percent from April and 5.0 percent year-on-year

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.0% annual gain in May, the same as the prior month. Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 1.2% in May.

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June new home sales rise to highest level in nearly 8.5 years

New U.S. single-family home sales rose more than expected in June, reaching their highest level in nearly 8.5 years.  Sales were up 3.5 percent from May and 25.4 percent year-on-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000.  With this increase, new home sales in the second quarter are well above their average for the first three months of the year.

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Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey falls slightly in July

Manufacturing activity in the region fell slightly in July, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Although the indicator for current general activity turned negative, indicators for new orders and shipments were positive. The survey’s index of future activity improved slightly, and firms expect growth in new orders and shipments over the next six months.

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