The Housing Chronicles Blog

Monday, September 19, 2011

BuilderBytes' MetroIntelligence Economic Update for 9/19/2011

Please click here to see the edition of BuilderBytes for 9/19/2011 on the Web. In this issue of the MetroIntelligence Economic Update, I covered how action by the world's central banks lifted investor sentiment (at least temporarily), the unemployment rate for August, consumer prices, industrial & manufacturing figures, consumer sentiment and the latest comments from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey.

Want to subscribe to BuilderBytes so you don't miss future editions! Send a request to info@builderbytes.com.

Want to advertise in the newsletter and reach over 100,000 readers? Contact National Sales Manager Nick Cosan at nkosan@penpubinc.com.

Want to make sure your company or event is included in the events calendar? Contact editor Dani Smith at dsmith@penpubinc.com.

Friday, September 16, 2011

September column for Builder & Developer magazine now online

My column for the September 2011 issue of Builder & Developer magazine is now posted online.

For this issue, entitled "Is Your PR Strategy Up to Date?," I wanted to review how rapid changes in social media continue to impact today's PR strategies. Although many builders and associates are far beyond the curve on this issue, they can quickly catch up!

From the column:

...although social media is becoming a clear priority among U.S. companies, the building industry remains somewhat disjointed. Whereas Lennar has clearly made strides across the social media spectrum – to the point of setting up separate Facebook, Twitter and YouTube accounts for multiple divisions – some other large builders make little or no mention of their social media efforts even on the home pages of their own Web sites. At the same time, while company blogs remain largely nonexistent, useful mobile applications directing buyers to active projects continue to proliferate...

To read the entire column, click here.

To read the entire September 2011 issue in digital format, click here.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

BuilderBytes' MetroIntelligence Economic Update for 9/15/2011

Please click here to see the edition of BuilderBytes for 9/15/2011 on the Web. In this issue of the MetroIntelligence Economic Update, I cover why California Economist Christopher Thornberg doesn't see a double-dip recession, the rise of mortgage applications, prices for U.S. imports and exports, the producer price index, retail sales and business sales & inventory levels.

Want to subscribe to BuilderBytes so you don't miss future editions! Send a request to info@builderbytes.com.

Want to advertise in the newsletter and reach over 100,000 readers? Contact National Sales Manager Nick Cosan at nkosan@penpubinc.com.

Want to make sure your company or event is included in the events calendar? Contact editor Dani Smith at dsmith@penpubinc.com.

Monday, September 12, 2011

Last Call to Register for the 2011 San Diego Economic Forecast Conference

FINAL WEEK TO REGISTER!



Hear some of the state's most reputable forecasters as they deliver a new outlook for the U.S., California, and San Diego economies:

  • Is a 'double-dip' recession on the way in 2011 or 2012?
  • What's around the corner for consumer spending, home prices, and employment?
  • How will the slow down in the national economy affect San Diego's recovery?

Featured Forecasters


Christopher Thornberg

Founding Partner

Beacon Economics

Brad Kemp

Director of Regional Research

Beacon Economics


The Re-Regulation of Wall Street: Expert Panel

  • Battles over the regulation of Wall Street are heightening in Washington. What sort of regulations are being proposed? How will they affect the banking and financial industry?
  • Can proposed regulations really prevent a repeat of the abuses that occurred prior to the 2008/09 recession? Or do they miss the mark completely?
  • Will regulation help or hurt businesses ability to acquire new capital? Are there dangerous unintended consequences?

Featured Panelists

Brian Cartwright

Latham & Watkins

Former General Counsel

U.S. Securities and

Exchange Commission






Julie Johnson

North Highland

Former Senior Capital Markets Specialist

FDIC







Robert D. McTeer

National Center for Policy Analysis

Former President

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas













Special discount available through MetroIntelligence, which produced the sections for the conference book on commercial and residential real estate: Use discount code metrosd to save $30 on registration.

Click here to register.

BuilderBytes for 9/12/2011

In a new feature for BuilderBytes, the twice-weekly newsletter emailed to over 100,000 subscribers from Peninsula Publishing, I am now going to be covering recent economic statistics released through various sources since the last edition.

This latest feature is an extension of my current relationship as a regular columnist for the publisher's flagship title, Builder & Developer magazine. I had been wanting to create a regular newsletter that was different from the others which currently fill your inbox(es) for some time, and since BuilderBytes was in the middle of being re-designed, this was the perfect opportunity to begin my new contribution.

Entitled the "MetroIntelligence Economic Update," the purpose of the new section is to provide one-stop shopping for updates on the U.S. economy in terms of unemployment, housing, auto sales, consumer confidence, mortgage applications, etc. so you can react in real time for your own businesses. Each issue will include brief summaries of the update along with a link to the original source.

Please click here to see the edition for 9/12/2011 on the Web. In this issue, I cover economist Mark Zandi's review of the Obama jobs plan, unemployment claims, the U.S. trade deficit, consumer credit and wholesale inventories.

Want to subscribe to BuilderBytes so you don't miss future editions! Send a request to info@builderbytes.com.

Want to advertise in the newsletter and reach over 100,000 readers? Contact National Sales Manager Nick Cosan at nkosan@penpubinc.com.

Want to make sure your company or event is included in the events calendar? Contact editor Dani Smith at dsmith@penpubinc.com.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

On Remembering 9/11

It's very easy for me to remember 9/11 for two reasons: besides the attacks in New York and at The Pentagon in 2001, it's always my younger brother's birthday. So for him, I'm sure, it's a bittersweet day -- one in which he celebrates his own birth today outside of Philadelphia, yet also can't forget the deaths of those in New York and Virginia as well as just 220 miles to the west, where United Airlines Flight 93 crashed to the ground near Stonycreek Township instead of into its intended target, the White House.

Two short months after 9/11/2001, I went to visit my older brother for Thanksgiving, who was living in mid-town Manhattan. While he personally didn't know anyone killed at the World Trade Center, he had in fact previously worked in the same section of The Pentagon that had been hit by the third plane.

I had been to NYC a few times before, but this time felt different -- quieter and more reflective. One afternoon, I felt compelled to take the subway down to visit Ground Zero, but neither my brother nor his fiance wanted to accompany me, so I went alone. Since the World Trade Center station was obviously closed, I deliberately chose a couple of stations earlier on the assumption that I'd have some time to get re-acquainted with Lower Manhattan at ground level before moving towards the site.

I was wrong. As I walked up from the subway steps to street level, I was greeted with the still-smoldering ruins of the collapsed buildings. But what I remember most is what I can only describe as the most depressing scent I've ever experienced before -- a combination of chemicals, smoke and death. It's something I hope to never smell again.

To shield the continuing recovery and salvage operation from public view, the city had installed solid plywood fencing around the entire site. For tourists hoping to grab a few shapshots of the carnage, on the fence the NYPD had stenciled "No Photos By Order of the NYPD" every few feet. I took no photos.

As I walked around the perimeter of the site, I noticed the damage to nearby buildings from falling debris -- a hole punched through the glass ceiling of a multi-story atrium here, a huge chunk of another building sliced off there. Throughout the area, family members and friends had posted hundreds of flyers with photos of potential victims and asking "Have You Seen Me?" on almost every available pole and bulletin board. Like the scent which hit me upon walking up from the subway station, this was a sight I would never forget.

Finally, near a wooden flatform area that had been quickly constructed as a sort of gathering place, there were multiple memorials to loved ones. It was at this point that I decided I had seen enough: I wasn't a local, and I had nothing to offer but my curiosity, so I returned to the subway station to return back to mid-town.

During the trip back, lost in my own thoughts, I had no doubt that the city would rebuild and the country would do whatever necessary to protect itself. Ten years later, although the physical and psychological wounds are taking time to heal, they are healing.

The current issue of "The Economist" has a great story on the recovery of Lower Manhattan that brought back these memories of my visit in November of 2001, but there is definitely some good news:

Some 14m square feet (1.3m square metres) of office space was damaged or destroyed and 65,000 jobs were lost or relocated. Hundreds of businesses closed, some permanently. Yet ten years on, the area is doing well. According to the Downtown Alliance, its vacancy rate is one of the lowest in the country. The volume of apartment sales has increased by 151% since 2003. The resident population has more than doubled, to 56,000, since 2001. Six new schools have opened there since 2009. Last year almost 10m tourists visited. Many stay at one of the 18 hotels in Lower Manhattan, three times the number in 2001. Though many companies fled in the first two years after the attacks, today there are more downtown than there were in 2001.

The biggest change is at the site itself. After years of construction delays and paralysis, One World Trade Centre, formerly known as “Freedom Tower”, now tops 80 floors. It is beginning to dominate the downtown skyline as the twin towers once did. Still two years from completion, when it will reach 104 storeys, 1m square feet of it is already leased to Condé Nast, a publishing company. The 9/11 museum, meanwhile, will not open till next September; but visitors to the site will soon be able to see two of the steel trident-shaped supports from the original building, which survived and have now been enclosed in the museum’s glass atrium. Seeing them for the first time since they were salvaged from the pulverised buildings is powerfully impressive. Visitors will also be able to see and touch the 70-foot (21.3-metre) underground wall that mercifully held back the Hudson River during the attacks...

You can read the the entire article by clicking here.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

No Nonsense Economics: "Volatility Returns with a Vengeance"

Economist Chris Thornberg with Beacon Economics told me he was working on a piece about the recent volatility in the stock market, and I think his latest post on No Nonsense Economics is a definite must-read. If you believe, as I do, that Chris' great talent is distilling complex economic issues into plain English -- whether during a speech or in a written essay -- I think he hits of a lot of reasons for this recent volatility right on the head.

Some excerpts:

Was the downgrade unprecedented? Absolutely. Logical? Absolutely not. A bond rating is an estimate of the chance that the borrower will not pay back their debt fully and on time. To justify a downgrade, one has to show why the probability of default has increased. Has the chance of a US default increased in recent months?

As for the amount of debt itself, despite the budget battles and ongoing gap between revenues and expenditures, overall net U.S. debt is still quite low for developed nations—somewhere on the order of 68% of current GDP once the holdings by the Social Security Administration are factored out. Given low interest rates, the current cost of servicing the nation’s existing debt is less than 10% of all expenditures. There is clearly no threat of a default in the near term, even if the debt ceiling had not been raised...

Another long terms issue is the underfunding of the major social insurance programs, particularly Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid. Are they underfunded? Absolutely. But as bad as these problems are, keep in mind that this only becomes a worry if one presumes that at some point in the future the U.S. government will forego payments on existing debt in order to fund current expenditures in these programs. But such a choice won’t be made for 10 or 15 years. Its hard to see anything that has occurred in recent months would have a reasonable impact on the assessment of such choices in the future...

The slow growth in the first quarter was largely due to an unusual pullback in spending on national defense and non-residential structures—spending that bounced back in the second quarter. July’s employment report was more positive, and since then initial claims for unemployment insurance have actually fallen. The primary driver of weak consumer spending in the second quarter has also been removed: Oil prices have fallen sharply—particularly since the stock market began to fall so rapidly. And Japanese cars are again starting to move into the market. Even the housing market—the source of bad news earlier in the year—is starting to show mild signs of life. Prices have risen a bit, as have permits for new residential construction...

While the problems in many European nations are profound, only Greece and Ireland have truly been pushed to the brink of default. In Greece’s case, it is due to years of bad government. They hid the rapid pace of debt accumulation through various nefarious accounting manipulations. The economy is stagnant and uncompetitive, driven there by massive government interference as well as one of the worst corruption problems in Europe. And there is their fundamental inability to raise revenues in a nation famed for its tax avoidance. As for Ireland, none of these factors are in place. There it is only because the government agreed to use public funds to prevent the collapse of the large Irish banks. That had become so heavily involved in the property bubbles in the US and UK.

As for Spain, Portugal, and Italy there are serious problems—but none of these nations is anywhere close to the brink of default. Spain and Portugal have relatively low levels of debt relative to their GDP. Italy has a huge amount of debt, but its economy is stronger than it looks on the surface—and it has a history of being able to handle such crises at the last moment...

Click here to read this lengthy post in its entirety.


August column for Builder & Developer now online

My column for the August 2011 issue of Builder & Developer magazine is now posted online.

For this issue, entitled "Multi-Family Goes Green,"I wanted to discuss the ways in which multi-family developments, even though they're inherently greener than single-family homes, face their own set of unique challenges when building to green standards such as LEED and CalGREEN. At the same time, there are a couple of tax incentive programs which remain vastly under-utilized.

From the column:

...Fortunately, for builders and operators of multi-family projects, higher unit densities, smaller square footages and shared common areas or services make them substantially more sustainable than their single-family counterparts -- even before any green building techniques are employed. For example, a recent study funded by the EPA found that a typical apartment uses 38% less energy than a green single-family home. For those households looking to move from a typical single-family home in a far-flung suburb to a green multi-family building adjacent to mass transit options, the energy savings could exceed 70%...


To read the entire column, click here.

To read the entire August 2011 issue in digital format, click here.

Is Your PR Strategy Up to Date?

Over the past few months – and as a result of the spokesperson role I played with Hanley Wood Market Intelligence prior to founding MetroIntelligence – our team has also been slowly expanding more into offering public relations services for our clients. To jump-start this initiative, we decided to partner with ICON Imaging PR in Los Angeles, which was founded in 1997 by news veterans Sharon and Bob Jimenez, and leverages their deep local and national connections in real estate, politics and entertainment. The blog WestLALand is one of first efforts together.

Consequently, I wanted to review some of the ways in which companies are now reaching out to the media, the community, and their customers. From the perspective of Sharon, especially, a former Emmy-winning reporter who has worked with everyone from local real estate developers and independent film producers to state senators and even a two-time Presidential candidate, she would certainly agree that the PR world of today is a far different animal than it was even ten years ago.

Certainly the PR vehicle which continues to morph and evolve the most is that of social media, centered primarily around Facebook (and perhaps Google+), Twitter, YouTube and, for professional networking, LinkedIn. According to Sharon, when she was put in charge of making Rep. Dennis Kucinich a household name back in 2003, it was by leveraging nascent social networking platforms that the campaign was able to raise $10 million online – in large part because they could publish the candidate’s entire platform for potential supporters to see.

By the 2008 election cycle, the rise of Facebook, YouTube and blogging platforms gave rise to campaign-supported operatives who would continue to win debate points long after the actual broadcast had finished. Indeed, it was largely due to the pioneering efforts of the 2004 election that a young and ambitious junior Senator from Illinois named Barack Obama was able to harness the Internet’s power to gather both funds and volunteers, thereby bypassing not only traditional means of building support, but shunting aside presumed Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in the process.

Today, however, although social media is becoming a clear priority among U.S. companies, the building industry remains somewhat disjointed. Whereas Lennar has clearly made strides across the social media spectrum – to the point of setting up separate Facebook, Twitter and YouTube accounts for multiple divisions – some other large builders make little or no mention of their social media efforts even on the home pages of their own Web sites. At the same time, while company blogs remain largely nonexistent, useful mobile applications directing buyers to active projects continue to proliferate.

In theory, an active online campaign would position a builder as a thought leader to foster discussions on the economic, environmental and political policies which directly impact housing. If your goal is to get buyers to agree that a new home can offer superior energy efficiency and design, why not let them come to that conclusion on their own? Instead, more often than not, these pages are used to repurpose print ads and to discuss current promotions, which can often have the opposite effect on an ad-weary public.

In addition, having an attentive point person assigned to social media on a regular basis can solve minor problems while demonstrating that the company is serious about having a two-way conversation. For example, when a new buyer of a Shea Homes model complained about signage across the street which needed to be taken down from a sold-out community, it was gone almost immediately – much to the delight of the Facebook member. One can only imagine the positive network effect that single action may have on future sales – and at a very low cost.

Some tips:

  • Use social media to position your company as a thought leader.
  • Cross-promote all of your social media efforts as much as possible.
  • Blogs can provide more flexibility than traditional social networking platforms such as Facebook, Twitter or YouTube.
  • Assign an internal or external point person to ensure that your social media efforts are updated regularly.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Beacon Economics launches new non-blog feature

Beacon Economics, an important client and partner to MetroIntelligence, has recently launched a new feature called 'No Nonsense Economics.' Written in the inimitable stylings of Beacon founder Chris Thornberg and other analysts, they insist it is 'not a blog.' Fine, so let's call it the 'non-blog.' Whatever the nomenclature, the purpose of the new feature is to provide 'independent analysis that helps interpret the numbers and the noise of the 24-hour news cycle.'

Here's the first post about the purpose of the new feature:

No Nonsense Economics is a new feature from Beacon Economics where you can read new and regular insights from Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg, as well as from other Beacon analysts and guest authors, about what is happening in today's economy.

Not a blog,
No Nonsense Economics will be a place where our experts can deliver timely comment on major developments in the economy from important data releases to legislation and public policies to long and short-term trends.

We titled this No Nonsense Economics because that is what we intend to give you - independent analysis that helps interpret the numbers and the noise of the 24-hour news cycle. We hope our insights will help you to understand the up, down, and sideway movements of the economy... and even assist you in making better decisions...

For other posts from No Nonsense Economics, click here.

Monday, August 1, 2011

November 3, 2011: Riverside/San Bernardino Economic Forecast Conference

Save the date: Thursday, November 3rd at the Riverside Convention Center!

Join MetroIntelligence, Beacon Economics and the University of California at Riverside's School of Business Administration for the 2011 Riverside/San Bernardino Economic Forecast Conference. Come hear some of the state's most reputable forecasters deliver a new outlook for the U.S., California, and Inland Southern California economies. Full program details coming soon.

Special discount available through MetroIntelligence: Use discount code metroie to save $25 on registration.

Click here to register.

Conference attendees will receive the following:

  • 2011 Riverside-San Bernardino Economic Forecast Book - a data-packed analysis of the region's economic indicators
  • Sections on residential and commercial real estate authored by MetroIntelligence Principal Patrick Duffy
  • Quarterly updates to the forecast for one full year
  • Chance to interact with forecasters and speakers
  • Prime networking opportunity
  • Breakfast buffet
  • Hosted self-parking
Special discount available through MetroIntelligence: Use discount code metroie to save $25 on registration.

Click here to register.

San Diego Economic Forecast Conference

Save the date: Tuesday, September 20th at the Hilton San Diego Bayfront in downtown San Diego!

Join MetroIntelligence and Beacon Economics for the 4th annual San Diego Economic Forecast Conference, presented with the generous sponsorship of Silvergate Bank. Come hear some of the state's most reputable forecasters deliver a new outlook for the U.S., California, and San Diego economies. Full program details coming soon.

Get answers to the following questions:

  • What's around the corner for the U.S., California, and San Diego economies?
  • How will the slow down in the national economy affect San Diego's recovery?
  • Battles over the re-regulation of Wall Street are heightening in Washington. What sort of regulations are being proposed? How will they affect the banking and financial industry?
  • Can proposed regulations really prevent a repeat of the abuses that occurred prior to the 2008/09 recession? Or do they miss the mark completely?
  • Will regulation help or hurt businesses ability to acquire new capital? Are there dangerous unintended consequences?
Special discount available through MetroIntelligence: Use discount code metrosd to save $30 on registration.

Click here to register.


Conference attendees will receive the following:
  • 2011 San Diego Economic Forecast Book - a data-packed analysis of the region's economic indicators
  • Sections on residential and commercial real estate authored by MetroIntelligence Principal Patrick Duffy
  • Quarterly updates to the forecast for one full year
  • Chance to interact with forecasters and speakers
  • Prime networking opportunity
  • Breakfast buffet
  • Hosted self-parking
Special discount available through MetroIntelligence: Use discount code metrosd to save $30 on registration.

Click here to register.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Why are some builders more successful than others?

Although it's certainly easy to blame the ongoing economic malaise for trying times in the building industry, there are still some builders who are actually doing pretty well -- relatively speaking.

So what's their secret? Ridiculously cheap prices? Creative architecture? Mind control? According to Erik Cofield in the video below -- and who heads up North American sales for Buildtopia, a widely used web-based management software for builders -- it's a combination of both old-fashioned advantages such as a strong foundation (including funding, land and product), a well-oiled and evolving sales machine, and the ability to leverage technology.

Friday, July 22, 2011

July column for Builder & Developer now online

My column for the July 2011 issue of Builder & Developer magazine is now posted online.

For this issue, entitled "Tracking Shadow Inventory," I've been recently working on a project for a multi-family client to track non-traditional apartments in Southern California such as REO units, sales of non-owner-occupied homes and compare both the cost of ownership versus these apartments as well as what the new owners could rent them for and break even. Since the subject seemed so timely, I thought it was well worth covering it in more detail.

From the column:

...For apartment builders and owners, today's low interest rates means that potential tenants can often find a nicer and larger home for close to what they would otherwise be paying to live in a typical apartment. In some cases - such as when putting 20 percent down and borrowing the rest at 4.5 percent or so for 30 years - the monthly payment for both attached and detached homes plus taxes and HOA fees (when applicable) could still up to 25 percent less than what a tenant would pay for a traditional apartment...

To read the entire column, click here.

To read the entire July 2011 issue in digital format, click here.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Multi-family goes green

Although multi-family housing is currently the healthiest among the various real estate sectors, it has not necessarily been on the forefront of the green building revolution which has characterized single-family homes. Although that is quickly changing, there still remains a great deal of confusion about current standards, costs and regulations that are starting to emerge from various cities across the U.S.

Multi-Family Enjoys Sustainable Advantages

Fortunately, for builders and operators of multi-family projects, higher unit densities, smaller square footages and shared common areas or services make them substantially more sustainable than their single-family counterparts -- even before any green building techniques are employed. For example, a recent study funded by the EPA found that a typical apartment uses 38% less energy than a green single-family home. For those households looking to move from a typical single-family home in a far-flung suburb to a green multi-family building adjacent to mass transit options, the energy savings could exceed 70%.

LEED Being Replaced by Other Standards

However, simply building to green standards does not automatically generate cost savings, in large part because standards such as LEED don’t actually guarantee lower energy bills. Instead, they cover a wide range of environmental issues such as selecting specific building sites and using sustainable materials that may in some cases actually cost more to operate.

To address that issue, a number of municipalities and building owners – including the U.S. Army -- are instead turning to metrics which sync more easily with building codes. In California, CALGreen is slowly replacing LEED requirements, while other cities and states nationwide are reviewing adoption of the International Code Council’s own Green Construction Code. The general idea is that LEED can return to its roots as a voluntary set of standards for those developers wanting to go the extra mile, as opposed to a system adopted for establishing mandates.

Still, LEED continues to be very influential, having recently introduced its program for multi-family buildings with a height of four to six stories. And, although the National Green Building Standard started by the NAHB in 2007 has mostly been oriented towards single-family homes, a growing pipeline of multi-family certifications is beginning to gain traction.

The Rise of Benchmarking

One major stumbling block for multi-family operators seeking to obtain green credentials or tax incentives is minimizing energy use, and for that they’re increasingly turning to benchmarking. With benchmarking, operators regularly monitor energy use to determine whether a building is improving in comparison to itself, other buildings in a portfolio, and against similar structures. Yet even as cities are starting to mandate benchmarking using tools such as the EPA’s Portfolio Manager, the wide disparity in energy use for garden, mid-rise and high-rise multi-family buildings has made it difficult to create universal standards. Moreover, because the use of energy by individual tenants is protected by privacy laws, most energy audits remain focused on major building systems and common areas. Until individual energy usage is shared between utilities and the Department of Energy or local jurisdictions, benchmarking for multi-family buildings will remain incomplete.

Tax Incentives Remain Largely Unclaimed

For now, the federal government is continuing to offer tax-related incentives to multi-family developers and operators. Besides 451 federal tax credits, which provide $2,000 for each energy-efficient unit (as determined by a third party) built over the past three years, applicants can seek a 179D tax deduction of up to $1.80 per square foot for the design of new and retrofitted mid- and high-rise energy-efficient buildings. Still, due to the application process or lack of awareness, both of these programs remain underutilized. In the long run, however, building owners will increasingly be asked to provide energy use data to the ultimate arbiter – their prospective tenants.