Riverside-San Bernardino Economic Forecast Conference

Register now: Thursday, November 3rd at the Riverside Convention Center!

Join MetroIntelligence and Beacon Economics for the next Riverside-San Bernardino Economic Forecast Conference, presented with the generous sponsorship of the U.C. Riverside School of Business Administration.

Come hear some of the state's most reputable forecasters deliver a new outlook for the U.S., California, and Inland Southern California economies.

• Is the recent slowdown in the U.S. economy a sign of worse to come? Or are we over the hump?
• Housing prices have stabilized but sales remain weak. What really ails the housing market?
• Can President Obama or Governor Brown make a dent in unemployment before the 2012 election?
• When will growth return to Inland Southern California?

Following the forecast, join a lively debate over the direction of jobs and employment in Inland Southern California. Hear expert speakers as they lay out their views about where the region should be focusing its efforts and resources.

• White Collar vs. Blue Collar: Does the future of Inland Southern California’s economy lie in high tech or the region's traditional industries?
• With the recent expansion of the Governor's "San Diego Innovation Hub" to include the I-215 Corridor, possible new funding sources have opened for high tech enterprise. Is this a golden opportunity for Inland Southern California to move towards becoming a high tech corridor?
• Inland Southern California's well-established, traditional industries, such as manufacturing, have strong competitive advantages. Would a greater focus on high tech business affect these industries?
• What can policymakers and economic developers really do to affect the direction of job and business development in the region? Is much of it out of their hands?

Special discount available through MetroIntelligence: Use discount code metroie11 to save $25 on registration.

Click here to register.

Conference attendees will receive the following:

• 2011 Riverside-San Bernardino Economic Forecast Book - a data-packed analysis of the region's economic indicators
• Sections on residential and commercial real estate authored by MetroIntelligence Principal Patrick Duffy
• Quarterly updates to the forecast for one full year
• Chance to interact with forecasters and speakers
• Prime networking opportunity
• Breakfast buffet
• Hosted self-parking
  

Special discount available through MetroIntelligence: Use discount code metroie11 to save $25 on registration.

Click here to register.

November 3, 2011: Riverside/San Bernardino Economic Forecast Conference

Save the date: Thursday, November 3rd at the Riverside Convention Center!

Join MetroIntelligence, Beacon Economics and the University of California at Riverside's School of Business Administration for the 2011 Riverside/San Bernardino Economic Forecast Conference. Come hear some of the state's most reputable forecasters deliver a new outlook for the U.S., California, and Inland Southern California economies. Full program details coming soon.

Special discount available through MetroIntelligence: Use discount code metroie to save $25 on registration.

Click here to register.

Conference attendees will receive the following:

• 2011 Riverside-San Bernardino Economic Forecast Book - a data-packed analysis of the region's economic indicators
• Sections on residential and commercial real estate authored by MetroIntelligence Principal Patrick Duffy
• Quarterly updates to the forecast for one full year
• Chance to interact with forecasters and speakers
• Prime networking opportunity
• Breakfast buffet
• Hosted self-parking

Special discount available through MetroIntelligence: Use discount code metroie to save $25 on registration.

Click here to register.

Miss the Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference?

If you missed the Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference hosted by Beacon Economics on May 19th in Redlands, fear not -- you can still download a copy of the conference book (MetroIntelligence wrote the sections on residential and commercial real estate) as well as .pdf version of each speakers' PowerPoint files:

Conference book

Chris Thornberg's presentation (national trends)

Brad Kemp's presentation (regional trends & forecast)

Johannes Moenius (Inland Empire housing)

Jim Brulte (history of liberal vs. conservative ideology)

John Rossi (California water delivery system & issues)

San Diego Conference materials now online

If you missed the April 14th Economic Forecast Conference in San Diego, you can still review the speakers' presentations as well as download a copy of the 100-plus page book which was given to all attendees:

Click on the links below:

Conference Book

Christopher Thornberg Presentation

Brad Kemp Presentation

Gary London Presentation

The next forecast conference by Beacon Economics will cover the Inland Empire and take place on the morning of May 19th at the University of Redlands.

Click here for more information or to register!

Update on Los Angeles/Ventura County new home market

I recently finished updating a Los Angeles/Ventura County Market Monitor for Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, which is now available online here or by emailing gdoyle@hanleywood.com.

Want to see an entire sample of a Market Monitor report? Click here.

Following is an abridged summary from the beginning of the updated report:

With consumer confidence tanking, credit tight for all but those with the highest credit scores and foreclosures continuing to dominate home sales, the Los Angeles-Ventura County experienced a decline of 43% in its rate of annualized new home sales during the fourth quarter of 2008. In fact, the 4,157 sales reported represent yet another new trough over the last 20+ years.

In Los Angeles County alone, new home sales fell to 443 units during the fourth quarter, or down by 51% versus the same quarter of 2007. For all of 2008, new home sales in Los Angeles County fell by 43%, while per-project absorption rates declined to just 1.3 units per month. In Ventura County, quarterly sales fell by an even sharper 76% to 38 homes, while annual sales fell by 46% to 526 units and an average absorption rate of 1.4 sales per month.

As noted last quarter, attached home sales are now performing better, although ‘better’ is relative considering declines of 63% from last year in Ventura County and by 46% in Los Angeles. In both counties and both sectors, builders are looking at average absorption rates of about .5 units per month...

For existing homes, declining prices and more foreclosures helped send sales figures up by nearly 14% from last quarter to 63,447 homes, although that level is still down by about 3% from a year ago. With foreclosures up by 23% between the second and third quarters of 2008, there remains considerable pressure on median prices, which fell by 10% during the quarter to $340,000.

The good news for buyers is that affordability ratios are back up to 36%, or even higher than the average noted over the last 20 years. At the same time, affordability ratios for new homes are about ten percentage points lower. Given the sharp drop in sales and absorption, builders continue to struggle against tight credit and heavily discounted foreclosures. Even with new home building at a virtual standstill, although the 14,848 units reported as unsold inventory has declined from last quarter – both released to the marketplace and in future phases – the inventory timeline has increased to 43 due to the continued decline in sales rates.

Fortunately, the level of standing inventory includes just 2,111 units and a timeline of 6.1 months. For the end of 2009, we are projecting the combined Los Angeles-Ventura median detached sales price to approach $400,000, with median value ratios at $130 per square foot. Total new home sales volume will fall to 3,050 units as builders continue to compete against rising foreclosures.

Want to buy the entire 132-page report? Click here to order or contact local Regional Director Greg Doyle at gdoyle@hanleywood.com.

I'll also be at the University of Redlands on May19th for the next Beacon Economics Inland Empire Forecast Conference, for which Hanley Wood is a sponsor. Want to register for that or find out more? Click here.

Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference on October 29th in San Bernardino

Next Wednesday, October 29th, is the fourth and final annual conference for 2008 produced by Beacon Economics, this time at the following location:

National Orange Show Events Center
Valencia Ballroom
689 South "E" Street, San Bernardino, California

Space is limited though, so if you want to go be sure to pre-register here or click on the link on the upper right-hand side of this blog.

Special offer for The Housing Chronicle Blog readers: email me at pduffy@metrointel.com for a code you can use when registering to save $50 off of registration (normally $150).

This event will focus on the Inland Empire. MetroIntelligence Real Estate Advisors is again participating in this event as a sponsor, including writing the real estate section for the conference books.

Want to learn more and attend? Read on:

Where do some of California's most renowned and straight-talking economists think local, state, and national economies are headed in 2009?

The Inland Empire: Ground zero in California's housing bust and recording massive numbers of foreclosures...

• Will the region suffer a long-run downturn or will demographic forces stimulate a quick recovery?
• Any sign of a bottom? When will builders see new demand?
• Are woes in the residential housing market spilling over into the retail and office sectors?.
• How will local government handle revenue shortages?

The State: California hit harder than the nation as a whole...

• Do the harder hits imply a quicker recovery?
• Will the Federal housing bill do anything to stabilize California's residential markets?

The Nation: Recovery, continued doldrums, or worse yet to come...

• Wall Street wreckage: what does it mean for the broader economy?
• Is the inflation boogie man really about to jump out of the closet?
• Has the Fed avoided a major banking sector collapse?

Featured Speakers
Jon Haveman Founding Principal Beacon Economics	Christopher Thornberg Founding Principal Beacon Economics	Stuart Dorsey President University of Redlands	Johannes Moenius Associate Professor University of Redlands

California's Budget Blues: Special Panel on Fiscal Reform

Jim Brulte (invited) Former California State Senator State of California

Daniel Mitchell Professor and Ho-Su Wu Chair in Management UCLA

Fred Silva (moderator) Fiscal Affairs Advisor Beacon Economics

Beacon Economics is pleased to announce that it has joined forces with the Inland Empire's University of Redlands in hosting its 2nd annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference. Beacon’s track-record of truth-seeking economic analysis and the University of Redland's reputation academic rigor promise a candid, thought-provoking, and practical discussion. The event is already generating a buzz, and seating is limited. So reserve today!

Attendees also receive Beacon's new 2008 Inland Empire Economic Forecast Book. This original, in-depth look at the region’s labor markets, income, real estate markets, demographic trends, and other indicators, is a valuable and enduring resource for anyone facing important economic and financial decisions over the next year.

Click here to register.