2011 Riverside-San Bern. Conference Materials Now Online

Miss the 2011 Beacon Economics Riverside-San Bernardino Economic Forecast Conference on Thursday, November 3rd at the Riverside Convention Center?
Fear not -- you can still download the conference book as a .pdf for free by clicking here.

As in the past, the sections on the residential and commercial real estate markets were authored by me and MetroIntelligence, so I welcome your comments and suggestions!

Also, if you'd like to view the presentation by Beacon founding partner and economist Christopher Thornberg on the state of the national and state economy, click here.

If you'd like to view the presentation by Brad Kemp, Beacon's Director of Regional Research, which focused on the Riverside-San Bernardino area -- including forecasts for employment, building permits and housing prices -- click here.

Still time to register for Riverside-San Bernardino Economic Forecast Conference!

Just a few days away! Register now for Thursday, November 3rd at the Riverside Convention Center.

Join MetroIntelligence and Beacon Economics for the next Riverside-San Bernardino Economic Forecast Conference, presented with the generous sponsorship of the U.C. Riverside School of Business Administration.

Come hear some of the state's most reputable forecasters deliver a new outlook for the U.S., California, and Inland Southern California economies.

• Is the recent slowdown in the U.S. economy a sign of worse to come? Or are we over the hump?
• Housing prices have stabilized but sales remain weak. What really ails the housing market?
• Can President Obama or Governor Brown make a dent in unemployment before the 2012 election?
• When will growth return to Inland Southern California?

Following the forecast, join a lively debate over the direction of jobs and employment in Inland Southern California. Hear expert speakers as they lay out their views about where the region should be focusing its efforts and resources.

• White Collar vs. Blue Collar: Does the future of Inland Southern California’s economy lie in high tech or the region's traditional industries?
• With the recent expansion of the Governor's "San Diego Innovation Hub" to include the I-215 Corridor, possible new funding sources have opened for high tech enterprise. Is this a golden opportunity for Inland Southern California to move towards becoming a high tech corridor?
• Inland Southern California's well-established, traditional industries, such as manufacturing, have strong competitive advantages. Would a greater focus on high tech business affect these industries?
• What can policymakers and economic developers really do to affect the direction of job and business development in the region? Is much of it out of their hands?

Special discount available through MetroIntelligence: Use discount code metroie11 to save $25 on registration.

Click here to register.

Conference attendees will receive the following:

• 2011 Riverside-San Bernardino Economic Forecast Book - a data-packed analysis of the region's economic indicators
• Sections on residential and commercial real estate authored by MetroIntelligence Principal Patrick Duffy
• Quarterly updates to the forecast for one full year
• Chance to interact with forecasters and speakers
• Prime networking opportunity
• Breakfast buffet
• Hosted self-parking
  

Special discount available through MetroIntelligence: Use discount code metroie11 to save $25 on registration.

Click here to register.

San Diego Economic Forecast Conference materials now online

Even if you missed the San Diego Economic Forecast Conference on Sept. 20th at the Hilton San Diego Bayfront Hotel, you can still get conference materials! Beacon Economics regularly provides these materials free of charge on their Web site after the conference, so if you have consulting needs, please be sure to contact them. Don't be shy!

Click here to download Christopher Thornberg's presentation on the California & U.S. economy.

Click here to download Brad Kemp's presentation on the San Diego region.

And finally, click here to download the conference book in its entirety (includes both the commercial and residential real estate sections authored by MetroIntelligence).

2011 Los Angeles County Economic Conference materials and webcast now online

Even if you missed Beacon Economics' 2011 Economic Forecast Conference for Los Angeles County on June 21st, you can still download the conference book for free and also watch a webcast of the entire event.

As part of our ongoing partnership with Beacon, MetroIntelligence authored the sections on residential and commercial real estate.

Click here to download the entire conference book.

Click here to see a video of the event.

And please be sure to contact us for any consulting studies you need done!

L.A. Economic Forecast Conference Coming Up: June 21, 2011

Please join us on June 21st, 2011 at the Bonaventure Hotel in downtown Los Angeles!

Special discount available through MetroIntelligence- click here.

MetroIntelligence Real Estate Advisors, Beacon Economics and the Graziadio School of Business and Management at Pepperdine University invite you to join us at What's Next LA? Entrepreneurialism and California's Competitive Future. This year's event delivers a stellar line-up of leading economic and business thinkers including the following:

• Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner, Beacon Economics
• Brad Kemp, Director of Regional Research, Beacon Economics
• Linda Livingstone (emcee), Dean, Pepperdine University Graziadio School of Business and Management
• Randy Churchill, Director - Emerging Company Services, PriceWaterhouseCoopers
• Christos Costakos, Former Chairman & CEO, E*Trade Group, Inc.
• Alexander Haislip, Financial Journalist and Author
• Scott Lenet, Managing Director - Los Angeles, DFJ Frontier

Attendees will hear a new outlook for the U.S., California, and Los Angeles economies, delivered by some of the state's most reputable forecasters, and revealing insights into the direction the economy will take in the near and long-term future. Some questions addressed will include the following:

• Is California going to stumble or stride down the road toward economic recovery in 2011 and 2012?
• How high do oil prices have to rise to significantly affect the economy?
• How will the housing market's battle with distressed properties affect home sales and prices in California and the nation over the next few years?
• Inflation? Hyperinflation? Deflation? Why are experts all over the map?
• Are the conditions for business success still in place in California today?
• What are the greatest barriers to California’s existing businesses? To entrepreneurialism?

The program will also cover one of the most pressing and hotly debated topics in the state: entrepreneurialism and California's competitive future. Charges of a hostile business climate in the Golden State have exploded in intensity since the downturn began in 2007. We have invited an exceptional line-up of experts from the worlds of venture capital, technology start-ups, banking, and journalism to debate critical questions that go to the heart of California's future success.

Conference attendees will receive the following:

• 2011 Los Angeles Economic Forecast Book - a data-packed analysis of the region's economic indicators
• Sections on residential and commercial real estate authored by MetroIntelligence Principal Patrick Duffy
  
• Quarterly updates to the forecast for one full year
• Chance to interact with forecasters and speakers
• Prime networking opportunity
• Breakfast buffet
• Hosted self-parking

Special discount available through MetroIntelligence- click here to register.

Los Angeles Economic Forecast Conference: June 21, 2011

Save the date: June 21st, 2011 at the Bonaventure Hotel in downtown Los Angeles!

Special discount available through MetroIntelligence- click here.

MetroIntelligence Real Estate Advisors, Beacon Economics and the Graziadio School of Business and Management at Pepperdine University invite you to join us at What's Next LA? Entrepreneurialism and California's Competitive Future. This year's event delivers a stellar line-up of leading economic and business thinkers including the following:

• Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner, Beacon Economics
• Brad Kemp, Director of Regional Research, Beacon Economics
• Linda Livingstone (emcee), Dean, Pepperdine University Graziadio School of Business and Management
• Randy Churchill, Director - Emerging Company Services, PriceWaterhouseCoopers
• Christos Costakos, Former Chairman & CEO, E*Trade Group, Inc.
• Alexander Haislip, Financial Journalist and Author
• Scott Lenet, Managing Director - Los Angeles, DFJ Frontier

Attendees will hear a new outlook for the U.S., California, and Los Angeles economies, delivered by some of the state's most reputable forecasters, and revealing insights into the direction the economy will take in the near and long-term future. Some questions addressed will include the following:

• Is California going to stumble or stride down the road toward economic recovery in 2011 and 2012?
• How high do oil prices have to rise to significantly affect the economy?
• How will the housing market's battle with distressed properties affect home sales and prices in California and the nation over the next few years?
• Inflation? Hyperinflation? Deflation? Why are experts all over the map?
• Are the conditions for business success still in place in California today?
• What are the greatest barriers to California’s existing businesses? To entrepreneurialism?

The program will also cover one of the most pressing and hotly debated topics in the state: entrepreneurialism and California's competitive future. Charges of a hostile business climate in the Golden State have exploded in intensity since the downturn began in 2007. We have invited an exceptional line-up of experts from the worlds of venture capital, technology start-ups, banking, and journalism to debate critical questions that go to the heart of California's future success.

Conference attendees will receive the following:

• 2011 Los Angeles Economic Forecast Book - a data-packed analysis of the region's economic indicators
• Sections on residential and commercial real estate authored by MetroIntelligence Principal Patrick Duffy
  
• Quarterly updates to the forecast for one full year
• Chance to interact with forecasters and speakers
• Prime networking opportunity
• Breakfast buffet
• Hosted self-parking

San Diego housing recovery expected to slow

San Diego Union-Tribune reporter Roger Showley covered Beacon Economics' lastest economic conference in San Diego on Friday, May 21st. In addition to the recent conference in Los Angeles, I also wrote the sections on residential and commercial real estate for this conference book, one of which was cited in Showley's piece:

"Office vacancies, currently about 19.3 percent, will fall only to 13 percent over the next four years as employment growth remains sluggish. Industry norms consider a healthy office vacancy rate to be less than 10 percent.

“Looking ahead to the rest of 2010 through 2012, the health of the office market will be largely tied to the extent of increased government spending on biotech and technology,” said Patrick S. Duffy of MetroIntelligence Real Estate Advisors, who wrote the chapter on commercial real estate in the Beacon report.

High vacancies will mean bargains for investors in some office buildings, he said, but values will still end up 36 percent below their peak of 2006."

Click here to read entire story.

Miss the Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference?

If you missed the Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference hosted by Beacon Economics on May 19th in Redlands, fear not -- you can still download a copy of the conference book (MetroIntelligence wrote the sections on residential and commercial real estate) as well as .pdf version of each speakers' PowerPoint files:

Conference book

Chris Thornberg's presentation (national trends)

Brad Kemp's presentation (regional trends & forecast)

Johannes Moenius (Inland Empire housing)

Jim Brulte (history of liberal vs. conservative ideology)

John Rossi (California water delivery system & issues)

Beacon Economics announces Inland Empire Forecast Conference

MetroIntelligence partner Beacon Economics has announced that the 2009 Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference will take place at the University of Redlands on the morning of Tuesday, May 19th.

Featured speakers will include Christopher Thornberg and Brad Kemp from Beacon Economics, Steve Dorsey, the President of the University of Redlands, and associate professor Johannes Moenius.

On the agenda that day:

• Are fears of depression realistic or just hype?
• Will the Federal stimulus plan help?
• Will California be the first or last to emerge from the darkness?
• Rocked by foreclosures, where is the Inland Empire housing market headed in 2009?

All conference attendees receive Beacon's new Inland Empire Economic Forecast Book - an unprecedented overview of the region's current economic conditions and analysis of what the near future holds. Both and residential and commercial real estate sections will be authored by MetroIntelligence Real Estate Advisors.

Click here for a brochure/registration form you can print out in .pdf form, or click here to register online.

Economics and housing interview from New Day Talk Radio

Last Saturday, Brad Kemp from Beacon Economics and I were guests on an Internet-based radio show on real estate. Hosted by Lynette Jones with New Day Talk Radio, Brad focused more on general economic questions, while I addressed the questions related to mortgage financing, home builders and general real estate.

Click here if you want to listen to this interview (50 minutes).

To play it you will need Microsoft Media Player. You can download the latest version of that here.

Miss the 2009 Economic Outlook for Orange County?

On Monday night there were about 550 people at the Irvine Marriott listening to economic analysis and forecasts by economist Chris Thornberg of Beacon Economics and his Director of Regional Research, Brad Kemp. I was fortunate enough to be able to introduce them and to suggest why the building industry needs forthright analysts and consultants now more than ever.

Firstly, if you missed the event you can still download their slide presentations here:

Thornberg: National Outlook

Kemp: Regional Outlook & Forecast

Please keep in mind that these forecasts are for "worst-case scenarios," so pricing declines for homes (both new and existing), falls in retail sales or increases in the unemployment rate may be less severe depending on a variety of factors. But if you consider that you're better off planning for a worst-case scenario and hoping for a better outcome, then of course you minimize your risk.

Secondly, the Orange County Register's Jeff Collins was there to report on the evening, and posted some of his thoughts on the Lansner on Real Estate blog:

Chris Thornberg, a former UCLA economics professor who co-founded Beacon, told homebuilders that while the overall economic outlook is bleak, hysteria about the U.S. marketplace is overblown. At worse, the financial picture is about as bad as the recession of 1982 and other severe recessions.

“2009 is going to be brutal. But it’s not that bad,” said Thornberg, who began predicting that a housing bubble was due to burst since at least 2003. “It’s not a depression. … This is sort of a normal, bad downturn.”

Other comments by Thornberg:

• Mortgage meltdown: The collapse of subprime loans was due to reliance on CDO (collateralized debt obligations, a.k.a., mortgage-backed securities). The entire financial market was based on folks making short-run returns. That’s got to be fixed.
• Liquidity crisis: It’s not a liquidity crisis, it’s just that lenders have no appetite for risk these days. “You can get business from the bank. You’ve just got to put skin in the game. … You can get money. You’ve just got to reduce their risk. That’s the new reality.”
• Wealth effect: People stopped saving because they thought they were rich because their stock values and home values had gone so high. They actually never were worth what people thought they were, and assets merely are collapsing “back to normal values,” he said. Americans “just woke up from a 14-year frat party with the mother of all Bud Lite hangovers.”
• Prop. 13: California isn’t a high-tax state. “It’s a dumb-tax state.” It places high income taxes on the wealthy who make up about 1 % of the tax base. The state instead should levy smaller tax hikes on a bigger tax base and it should eliminate Prop. 13, which is inequitable and limits revenues.

Click here for entire blog entry.

Still time to sign up for the OC BIA Economic Outlook on Jan. 26th

Want to know the future of Orange County and the U.S. economy? There's still time to sign up for the 2009 Economic Outlook produced by the Orange County BIA Chapter on January 26th at the Irvine Marriott. Presenters will include Christopher Thornberg and Brad Kemp from Beacon Economics, with perhaps a small intro I've give explaining on why these guys should be on the speed call list for builders and developers.

Since this is the most-attended event for the OC BIA, they're offering 90 minutes of 'extended' networking, so bring your business cards!

For the event flyer, click here.

To register, click here.