San Diego Economic Forecast Conference - Residential Real Estate

If you missed the recent San Diego Economic Forecast Conference produced by Beacon Economics, fear not!  As part of its ongoing association with these economists, MetroIntelligence authored the residential real estate section for the conference book given out to attendees at this event, which took place on October 3rd at the Hilton San Diego Bayfront Hotel.

Following are some of the key findings:

• Lower home prices continue to support higher affordability versus the boom years, with 54% of households able to buy the median-priced home at current interest rates; this index is now where it was in both late 2009 and late 2002.   
• Although the S&P/Case Shiller index in May was still lower than a year ago, since the beginning of 2012 it has began to slowly rise, and is about where it was in both late 2009 and late 2002.
• New home sales remain depressed, with sales in the second quarter of 2012 down by 82% from the peak of early 2005; still, over the previous year sales did rise by about 3% while prices fell by a similar amount to $437,148.
• Sales of existing single-family homes in the second quarter of 2012 rebounded by 17% over the previous year versus less than 10% statewide; despite the increases, sales prices rose by just 0.7% to nearly $360,000 versus 8% statewide.
• Condo sales in the second quarter of 2012 rose at about the same rate of new homes over the previous year, or just over 3% to about 2,700 units versus an 11% rise statewide; sales prices rose by 4.7% to over $220,000 versus 6.8% statewide.
• Given its combination of low vacancies and positive rental growth, San Diego’s apartment market is among the strongest in the country; during the second quarter of 2012 vacancy rates were at about 3% with asking rents rising by 2.5% over the past year to $1,384 per month.
• Foreclosure activity in the second quarter of 2012 showed sharp declines, falling by nearly 50% over the previous year to 1,325 units, or where it was in the second quarter of 2007; loan defaults also fell by nearly 24% over the previous year to about 4,200 units.
• Permits for new single-family homes remained depressed at just over 550 units during the fourth quarter of 2011, well in line with the quarterly totals noted since the last half of 2008; however, permits for multi-family units rose by over 125% over the previous two years to over 670 units by the final quarter of 2011.

Click here to download this residential real estate section.

Click here to find out more about the consulting services offered by MetroIntelligence Real Estate & Economics Advisors.  Or just give us a call at 818.584.1848.

"The Recovery: Is it Real?" San Diego Conference materials now online

The materials provided for Beacon Economics' "The Recovery: Is it Real?" annual conference in San Diego on May 21st are now available online.

As part of our ongoing association with Beacon Economics, MetroIntelligence Real Estate Advisors Principal Patrick Duffy wrote the sections on residential and commercial real estate.

If you want to read just the section on residential real estate, click here to download.

If you want to read just the section on commercial real estate, click here to download.

And if you want to download the entire conference book, click here to download.

San Diego housing recovery expected to slow

San Diego Union-Tribune reporter Roger Showley covered Beacon Economics' lastest economic conference in San Diego on Friday, May 21st. In addition to the recent conference in Los Angeles, I also wrote the sections on residential and commercial real estate for this conference book, one of which was cited in Showley's piece:

"Office vacancies, currently about 19.3 percent, will fall only to 13 percent over the next four years as employment growth remains sluggish. Industry norms consider a healthy office vacancy rate to be less than 10 percent.

“Looking ahead to the rest of 2010 through 2012, the health of the office market will be largely tied to the extent of increased government spending on biotech and technology,” said Patrick S. Duffy of MetroIntelligence Real Estate Advisors, who wrote the chapter on commercial real estate in the Beacon report.

High vacancies will mean bargains for investors in some office buildings, he said, but values will still end up 36 percent below their peak of 2006."

Click here to read entire story.