The Housing Chronicles Blog

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

March consumer credit use grew at 3.6 percent, slowest gain since September

Consumer credit in March grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.6 percent to mark the slowest gain since September. Nonrevolving credit such as student and auto loans grew 6 percent, while revolving credit, namely credit cards, fell 3 percent, marking the second drop in a row.

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March job openings rose 7.8 percent to 6.55 million, highest level since December 2000

The March update on job openings saw a 7.8 percent rise to 6.55 million.  This is the highest level since the BLS initiated its JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary) report in December of 2000. At the same time, hires fell 1.6 percent while separations rose 2.3 percent.

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April Producer Price Index growth slipped to 0.1 percent, up 2.6 percent year-on-year

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1 percent in April, down from 0.3 percent in March and 0.2 percent in February, and was up 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in April. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1 percent in April after increasing 0.4 percent in March, and was up 2.5 percent for the 12 months ended in April.

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Monday, May 7, 2018

Gallup: 1/3 of Americans consider real estate as best long-term investment vs. 1/4 for stocks

According to Gallup, more Americans name real estate over several other vehicles for growing wealth as the best long-term investment for the fifth year in a row. Just over a third cite real estate for this, while roughly a quarter name "stocks or mutual funds." Gold, mentioned by 17%, roughly ties "savings accounts or CDs" at 15%, while only a few Americans, 6%, name bonds.

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March U.S. trade deficit dropped 15.1 percent from February, but still up 18.5 percent YTD year-on-year

The goods and services deficit was $49.0 billion in March, down 15.1 percent from February. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $25.5 billion, or 18.5 percent, from the same period in 2017.

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Friday, May 4, 2018

Job growth rebounded to 164,000 in April, unemployment edged down to 3.9 percent

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent, due mostly to the labor force shrinking by 236,000 as Baby Boomers step up retirement. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.

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Thursday, May 3, 2018

April manufacturing index fell 2.0 points to 57.3 due to high input prices, tariffs and tight labor market

The April PMI® registered 57.3 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the March reading of 59.3 percent. Lead time extensions, steel and aluminum disruptions, supplier labor issues, and transportation difficulties continue. Demand remains robust, but the nation's employment resources and supply chains continue to struggle.

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March construction spending dipped 1.7 percent from February but still up 3.6 percent year-on-year

Construction spending during March 2018 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,284.7 billion, 1.7 percent below the revised February estimate but 3.6 percent above the March 2017 estimate. During the first three months of this year, construction spending was 5.5 percent above the same period in 2017.

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Initial unemployment claims rise 2,000 in weekly report

In the week ending April 28, initial unemployment claims were 211,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 209,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,500, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 229,250. This is the lowest level for this average since March 3, 1973 when it was 221,250.

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Mortgage applications fall 2.5 percent as rates rise to highest level since September 2013

The Market Composite Index decreased 2.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans down 2.0 percent and refinances falling 4.0 percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to its highest level since September 2013, 4.80 percent.

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Bloomberg: Consumer comfort drops to seven-week low as gas prices rise

Rising prices at the gas pump helped drive U.S. household sentiment to a seven-week low at the end of April, with the consumer comfort index falling 1.6 points to 56.5.  This is the largest drop since October.

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April service sector economy index dips 2.0 points due to concerns about tariffs and inflation

The April NMI® registered 56.8 percent, which is 2 percentage points lower than the March reading of 58.8 percent. There was a slowing in the rate of growth that was mostly attributed to the decline in the Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes. The respondents have expressed concern regarding the uncertainty about tariffs and the effect on the cost of goods.

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1Q 2018 Labor productivity up 0.7 percent from previous quarter and 1.3 percent year-on-year

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 0.7 percent during the first quarter of 2018, as output increased 2.8 percent and hours worked increased 2.1 percent. From the first quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018, productivity increased 1.3 percent, reflecting a 3.6-percent increase in output and a 2.2-percent increase in hours worked.

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April planned job cuts plummeted 40.2 percent from March, down 1.4 percent year-on-year

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell 40.2 percent in April, and were also down 1.4 percent year-on-year.  So far this year, employers have announced 176,460 job cuts, 8.38 percent more than those announced through the first four months of 2017, with 36.5 percent of those in retail.

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Wednesday, May 2, 2018

Federal Reserve leaves interest rate unchanged in May meeting, suggests future increases will be slow

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has opted to keep its benchmark federal funds interest rate in the range of 1.50 to 1.75 percent. Although economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate, the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.

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