Gallup: Nearly 4 in 10 of Americans cite the economy as the nation's most positive factor

According to a Gallup poll, 37 percent of respondents cited the economy or jobs as nation's biggest positive factor. This marks a 14-year high in Gallup's monthly poll series.

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Gallup: Optimism about finding quality jobs hits 17-year high

Sixty-seven percent of Americans believe that now is a good time to find a quality job in the U.S., the highest percentage in 17 years of Gallup polling. Optimism about the availability of good jobs has grown by 25 percentage points since Donald Trump was elected president.

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Gallup: Americans hoping to buy a home in the next 5 years exceeds home sellers

Slightly less than half of U.S. non-homeowners, 45%, say they plan to buy a home within the next five years. But their ability to do so may be hampered by a limited supply of homes, as 22% of current homeowners plan to sell within that time frame. Similarly, 18% of all U.S. adults do not own a home and plan to buy one in the next five years. Meanwhile, 13% of U.S. adults own a home and plan to sell in the same time frame.

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As Urban Home Prices Rise, Millennials Are Returning to the Suburbs: City-Like Amenities are Following

It wasn’t too long ago that many experts were eulogizing the suburbs as young millennials (and even many aging baby boomers) seemed to prefer the sights, sounds and amenities of urban environments.  However, as the millennials have grown older and been increasingly priced out of expensive downtown areas, they have been gradually returning to the suburbs in order to lay down roots and start families.

But they’re not really leaving the city behind.  Instead, they’re demanding and supporting the types of unique, city-like amenities which attracted them there in the first place. 

Yes, the suburbs are again becoming trendy.

Certainly part of this trend is due to simple math:  Given a reported 32 percent increase in births between 1978 and 1990, it stands to reason that many cities would be hosting a huge influx of residents born about 25 years ago.  Indeed, many cities may have reached “peak millennial” as the largest group of this generation passed the milestone age of 25 in 2015, and then moved further out as they settled into their careers and started planning for the next stages of life.  By that same year, nearly 73 percent of those aged 25 to 34 were already living in suburbs, versus the 21 percent living in cities.

According to U.S. Census Bureau data as analyzed by demographer William Frey at the Brookings Institution, since 2012 the growth of suburbs and rural areas has quadrupled, while that of urban areas has fallen by half. 

Using the same data sets, Demographia’s Wendell Cox found that between 2016 and 2017 nearly 440,000 residents moved away from counties with urban cores, while the outlying suburbs gained net 252,000 residents.  Although some large urban areas have added more people – such as in Dallas, Houston and Atlanta – they tend to have smaller downtown areas ringed by residential areas with a suburban feel.

Although we saw this kind of urban-to-suburban flight between the 1950s and the 1980s, in that case it was usually due to fear of rising crime as well as the evolution of more suburban employment centers.  Today, however, the same type of migration is due to the enormous success of the rebirth of many urban centers, which has been accompanied by soaring home prices and rents. Another difference today is that the amenities once considered specific to urban cores, such as craft breweries, fitness boot camps and gluten-free bakeries, are increasingly popping up in the suburbs.

One place in which developers can quickly jump on this emerging trend is with a more modern version of the master-planned community.  

Whereas yesterday’s behemoths were centered around golf courses designed by the sport’s biggest names and usually required car trips to the neighborhood shopping center, today’s master plans now include not just open space and walking trails, but also retail stores and event spaces more uniquely branded to the community.

And, instead of selling out home sites to merchant builders and then moving onto the next project, some enterprising developers are partnering with HOAs to host regular events ranging from movie nights and luaus to happy hours and cooking classes.

Another land use which could benefit from the urban-to-suburban trend is retail, especially as more old-style malls are increasingly being converted into spaces for offices, schools and homes.  Given that a 2017 Gallup survey showed that 43 percent of employed Americans work partly from home, local versions of the co-sharing office space company WeWork are increasingly sprouting up in suburbs.  For local millennial entrepreneurs, a flexible retail landlord could offer pop-up stores, galleries and incubator spaces to help test-market their ideas before a formal launch.

Of course perhaps the biggest challenge to the renaissance of the suburb will be how to pay for it.  In the early 2010s, there was a fortunate blending of demographics and the economic cycle in which most millennials were looking to rent apartments, and fewer barriers existed to new development in urban cores.  But as this group moves to the suburbs in search of quality schools, mass transit options and adequate infrastructure, how to provide these basic services at a time of rising public pension commitments for many state and local governments will require some new solutions.

Still, some cities are fighting back to retain their millennials by encouraging suburban-type projects (such as duplexes, row houses and townhomes) to address the “missing middle” of housing options.  By leveraging existing urban amenities with more family friendly homes, they aim to keep their millennials in town for as long as possible.

Gallup: 1/3 of Americans consider real estate as best long-term investment vs. 1/4 for stocks

According to Gallup, more Americans name real estate over several other vehicles for growing wealth as the best long-term investment for the fifth year in a row. Just over a third cite real estate for this, while roughly a quarter name "stocks or mutual funds." Gold, mentioned by 17%, roughly ties "savings accounts or CDs" at 15%, while only a few Americans, 6%, name bonds.

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Gallup: More Americans see AI as a greater threat than immigration and offshoring

More than half of Americans (58%) say technology poses a greater threat to jobs in the U.S. over the next decade, while 42% see immigration and offshoring as the greater threat. Republicans, who see immigration and offshoring as roughly an equal threat as technology, are the only subgroup of Americans not to see technology as a greater threat.

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Gallup: 70 percent of U.S. adults have positive views on foreign trade, up from 58 percent prior to 2017

Americans' increasingly positive views of foreign trade have stabilized after spiking last year. A strong majority of U.S. adults (70%) see foreign trade as an opportunity for U.S. economic growth through increased exports rather than a threat to the economy from foreign imports (25%). Before last year, no more than 58% had held the positive view of trade.

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Gallup: Americans not quite ready yet for self-driving cars and trucks

According to Gallup, by some estimates, 10 million self-driving vehicles will be on the road worldwide by 2020.

However, Americans are currently skeptical of using the technology.

• More than half of the U.S. public (54%) says it is not likely to use the vehicles.
• 59% would be uncomfortable riding in self-driving cars
• 62% would be uncomfortable sharing the road with self-driving trucks

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Gallup: Public split on Universal Basic Income (UBI) to address future automation

According to a recent Gallup poll, Americans are split in their support for a hypothetical universal basic income (UBI) program that would guarantee a minimum income for workers who lose their jobs because of advances in artificial intelligence (AI).

Forty-eight percent support and 52% oppose a UBI program for workers who are displaced by technology.

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Gallup: U.S. leadership ratings fall during first year of Trump's presidency to record-low 30 percent

Ratings of U.S. leadership fell in nearly every part of the world in the first year of Donald Trump's presidency, dragging median approval to a record-low 30%.

Approval of U.S. leadership dropped across all demographic groups during Trump's first year, but groups that typically give U.S. leadership higher approval ratings -- those with more education, those earning higher incomes and those who live in urban areas -- registered the largest declines.

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Gallup: July Good Jobs rate rose to 47.0 percent, tie for highest point since 2010

The Gallup Good Jobs (GGJ) rate rose nearly a percentage point to 47.0% in July, from 46.3% in June. The GGJ rate now ties the highest point for the measure since 2010, 47.1% in July of last year.

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Gallup: Economic Confidence Index steady in July at +4, in positive territory for nine straight months

Americans' confidence in the economy was steady last month, with Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaging +4 in July. This score is nearly identical to the 2017 low of +3 registered in May and June. Still, July marked the ninth consecutive month that Americans rated the economy more positively than negatively -- the longest such streak since Gallup began tracking economic confidence in 2008.

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Gallup: Job Creation Index rebounded to record high in July

Gallup's U.S. Job Creation Index returned to its all-time high of +37 in July, a sign that the job market remains strong relative to the past decade. This is one point higher than the index score in June and the third time it has been at +37 in 2017.

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Gallup: June consumer spending highest in that month since 2008

Americans' daily self-reports of spending averaged $103 in June, similar to their average of $104 in May. Last month represents the highest level of reported June spending since 2008, when spending averaged $104. It falls just short of the nine-year high of $114, from May 2008.

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Gallup Job Creation Index dips to 36 in April, one point from record high in March

The Gallup Job Creation Index was at +36 in April, one point off the record high of +37 in March. The Midwest led the regions at +42, the first time any region has topped +40 in the nine-year history of the index.

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Households Re-Think the Meaning of Home

At the 2011 ULI Fall Meeting in Los Angeles, a new publication entitled “What’s Next: Real Estate in the New Economy” summarizes what builders and developers can expect in the years ahead through 2020. Due to a combination of increasing globalization, changing demographics and evolving technologies, the correct mix of strategic analysis and advice has never been more important.

In the short term, one thing is becoming clear: the smorgasbord of low-hanging fruit which largely powered the home building industry’s success since the end of World War II is now gone. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. In its place is emerging a collection of specific opportunities targeting value-conscious Baby Boomers, hyper-connected Gen Y members, immigrants often in need of multi-generational housing and lifelong renters -- some of whom need affordable housing and others who still crave those services and amenities commonly found in luxury condominium buildings.

However, these groups will still demand some common traits related to design and function. One major trend discussed at the 2011 Building Industry Show in Southern California is casual living, which is now evident in all facets of American life and has been building for the last two decades. Casual living means combining room flexibility into ‘great rooms’ so individual households can make it their own with the fewest structural impediments as possible. At the same time, today’s households don’t want to sacrifice style and design, so matching supply to demand at a competitive price will be critical.

It also means providing a clear relationship between indoor and outdoor spaces, so that even downsizing Boomers or transit-oriented Gen Yers can host family and friends in a yard or on a patio or balcony. In addition, given the continued rise of telecommuting marching in lockstep with improving technology, most buyers want to feel just as connected with the outside world whether they’re living in a downtown loft or a multi-generational home in a far-flung suburb. And, although today’s buyers and renters won’t necessarily pay more for sustainable living, they’re much more likely to opt for a green home if the cost is the same, thus helping both absorption and occupancy levels.

The demographic changes impacting the industry will continue to accelerate in the years ahead, which will mean building for single-person households (expected to account for 27% of the total by 2020), ‘minority majority’ Asian, Hispanic and African American communities in many urban areas, extended employment years for Baby Boomers expected to live longer lives than ever, and small groups such as families, friends and roommates opting to cohabitate in large homes as opposed to living alone.

Layered on top of these demographic changes will be the realities of living a balanced life. With costs for transportation in the form of fuel, time and tolls continuing to rise, households are already beginning to factor in the total cost of commuting and maintaining a home into their total monthly budget. However, since infill urban locations are by nature limited in scope, look for more mixed-use corridors to crop up around suburban nodes with freeway interchanges and transit stops as the center piece.

Still, beyond the statistics lie the real reasons people choose the communities in which they live, and some of these may surprise. According to the third annual Knight Soul of the Community survey conducted by Gallup, there are three main qualities which attach people to a place: social offerings in the form of venues and places to meet, openness to diversity and newcomers, and aesthetics in both physical beauty and green spaces. Perhaps Confucius had it right all along when he predicted, “The strength of a nation derives from the integrity of the home.”