November column for Builder & Developer magazine now online

My column for the November issue of Builder & Developer magazine is now posted online.

For this issue, entitled "Where Will the Boomers Live?,"since I had already written this year about issues including single-person households, multi-generational households and Millienials, I wanted to also write about the very important cohort of Baby Boomers, how they're saving for retirement, and where they expect to live.  An excerpt:

Fortunately, Pulte Homes’ Del Webb subsidiary, which has long had its own army of market researchers, has been conducting its own Baby Boomer survey since 1996.  For these surveys, the company separates out younger Boomers (those turning 50 years of age in the next year) and older ones (about to turn 64), and separates them into four groups:  younger Boomers, older Boomers, boomers who were 50 in 1996 and were about to turn 65 in 2010, and current residents of Del Webb communities, most of whom were age 60 to 76.

Some of the differences between the surveys of 1996 and 2010 are striking. Compared to 50 year-olds in 1996, today’s younger Boomers plan to retire four years later (age 67 vs. 63) and are half as likely to be prepared for retirement (16% vs. 34%).  Over four in ten think they’ll never be financially prepared to retire, and nearly four in ten haven’t started to save for it...

To read the entire column, click here.

To read the entire November 2012 issue in digital format, click here.

Happy President’s Day from Housing Chronicles

Did you know that Washington’s Birthday is still the official name designated to what many of us know as President’s Day? During the month of February, the birthday of two of our greatest Presidents takes place. Both George Washington (who was born on Feb. 22nd) and Abraham Lincoln (born on Feb. 12th).

However, Washington’s birthday has been publicly celebrated since he was in office, before Abraham Lincoln was even born. Much of the debate over the name of the holiday springs from the fact that states can follow their own holidays how they see fit and many of them chose to also honor Lincoln, calling the celebration President’s Day.

It was in 1968 that the term President’s Day came up for legal consideration in the Congress but rejected, though the holiday was moved to fall between the two President’s birthdays. Again, in the 1980′s there was a resurgence of the term with advertisers which solidfied the holiday name in American culture. Today, few Americans prefer to call the holiday Washington’s Birthday in lieu of President’s Day. (Source: Patriotism.org)

Also, according to a story in the L.A. Times:

When President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Uniform Monday Holiday Act, many people surmised — incorrectly — that it was to jointly honor both the Father of His Country and the Great Emancipator…The Monday Holiday Act took effect in 1971. Along with moving Washington’s birthday, it created three-day holidays for Memorial Day, which had been celebrated May 30, and Veterans Day, which had been observed on Nov. 11…

As for “Washington’s Birthday,” about a decade ago some members of Congress tried to restore the name to its proper place in American discourse.

They introduced the “Washington-Lincoln Recognition Act of 2001,” which called on all federal officials and entities to refer to the day as Washington’s Birthday. It also called on the president to issue an annual proclamation recognizing the anniversary of Lincoln’s birth, and it urged Americans to observe the day with “appropriate ceremonies and activities.”

The bill never got out of committee.

Regardless of what you call it, enjoy the day off (if you have it off) and Happy President’s Day/Washington’s Birthday.

Happy Holidays from MetroIntelligence and Housing Chronicles

Whether you celebrate Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwaanza, the Yule or simply enjoy the music and lights which characterize this time of year, at MetroIntelligence and Housing Chronicles we’d like to wish you Happy Holidays and hope you have a great 2012! Following are some tips we found on how to best enjoy this time of year from the folks at the American Council 0n Exercise (ACE):

The holidays can be a joyous time of year shared with family and friends, but they can also bring stress and anxiety as we struggle to keep up with often-unrealistic demands and expectations.

That’s why it is so important for all of us to relax and take good care of ourselves.

ACE’s top tips for surviving the holidays are great for increasing your energy and reducing your stress, this season and all year long.

1. Take time for yourself. Although spending time with friends and family is essential, it’s also important to have at least five minutes to yourself to relax. Try practicing deep breathing exercise when you feel stressed out.
2. Don’t set unrealistic exercise goals. Aim to exercise 20 minutes a day instead of an hour. You’ll be sure to get at least 20 minutes of exercise per day without feeling disappointed if you do not complete an hour.
3. Enlist a friend or family member to exercise with you. Walking and talking with a friend can be a great way to burn extra calories and reduce your stress level.
4. Create new, more active traditions. Instead of throwing a dessert or cocktail party, try snowshoeing or ice-skating as an alternate holiday event. Play powder puff football or build a snowman.
5. Don’t try to lose weight or stick to a restrictive diet this holiday season. If you enjoy your favorite foods in small portions, you’ll feel more satisfied. Trying to stay away from certain foods may leave you feeling deprived, which may cause you to eat more than you intended to.
6. Drink plenty of water. Although the cold weather may make you less inclined to grab a glass of water, it is just as important in the winter as it is during the summer. Water helps counter the dehydrating effects of travel or drinking alcoholic beverages, and it may also help satiate your appetite since thirst is often mistaken for hunger.
7. Spread out meals. Don’t feel like you have to eat everything at once. Try eating dinner early and then taking a walk before sitting down for dessert.
8. Don’t overdo it with alcohol or caffeine. These stimulants will only cause you more grief in the end by adding to your feelings of stress. Try drinking hot herbal tea instead of coffee, and keep the number of alcoholic drinks to a minimum.
9. Don’t aim for perfection, and enjoy the imperfections. There is no such thing as the perfect party or the perfect decorations or the perfect way to spend the holidays. Don’t set yourself up for disappointment by placing unrealistic demands on yourself.
10. Laugh. Laughing is a great tension reliever. It burns calories, reduces stress and usually means that you’re enjoying yourself.

Introducing HousingStorm.com

Some of you may have noticed a new feed from HousingStorm.com, which replaced the old one from L.A. Land once that blog of the L.A. Times was absorbed into Money & Co. In addition to offering the most recent 5 posts from HousingStorm, I'll also be contributing to their site, started by Danville real estate agent (and technology wiz) Greg Fielding.

So what is HousingStorm all about? In essence, community plus honesty. But I'll let Greg tell you himself:

I wanted to share with you some thoughts about the variety of topics and opinions expressed on HousingStorm.com, and how we can embrace that variety to create a powerful and educational community atmosphere.

One of the great things about HousingStorm.com is that, not only do you have the ability to share your thoughts in your blog, you have the ability to directly engage the public and other members in healthy debate and discussion.

This is a community where ALL opinions are welcome…meaning, it is a virtual guarantee that another member or contributor will write content or express an opinion that you disagree with.

For example, someone might say that home prices are going down when you think they are going up. Someone might give mortgage advice that you think is irresponsible. Someone else could give remodeling, investing, or home-selling advice that is just flat-out wrong.

The beauty of this community is that you have the ability to respond and share your position. Then, someone else could respond to your thoughts and agree or disagree with you…and so on.

Through this process of healthy debate and discussion, the consumer gets an education and you get a chance to show your mettle.

This concept of having local professionals and members, directly engaging consumers and each other about today's critical real estate issues, is unique to HousingStorm.com. As the community continues to grow, this engagement will give you a dynamic way to share your expertise with the public.

In the current economic climate, not all topics will be fun to discuss. Some debates will get heated. It is in these circumstances that the best of us can get involved and make a positive impact. The public desperately needs your perspective and expertise.

We have the amazing opportunities to engage a public in need of answers and set new standards for what it means to be an engaged, informed, and professional.

Let's make a difference!

Please visit HousingStorm.com regularly, and you can also find the feeds from their most recent postings here on The Housing Chronicles.

Interview with Robert Shiller now online at BlogTalkRadio

My interview with Robert Shiller, author of the new book "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why it Matters for Global Capitalism" is now online at BlogTalkRadio. You can also listen to the interview by clicking on the widget on the right hand margin of this blog.

This interview will be accompanying my upcoming review of the book for the syndicated news service Inman News.

My review of "Real Estate and the Financial Crisis" now online

My review of the book "Real Estate and the Financial Crisis: How Turmoil in the Capital Markets is Restructuring Real Estate Finance"by economist and real estate writer Anthony Downs is now online at Inman News.

For now, here's an excerpt from the review:

As a senior fellow at the well-respected Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C., think tank with decades spent studying real estate markets, Downs didn't have to rely much on outside experts: in fact, he said that most of his research was conducted on the Internet. He cautions, though, that for the research novice it's often difficult to distinguish between fact and fiction on the World Wide (and wild) Web.

Downs, with 26 other books and more than 500 articles to his credit, has taken readers down similar paths before, including 2007's "Niagara of Capital: How Global Capital Has Transformed Housing and Real Estate Markets" as well as "An Economic Theory of Democracy" (1957) and "Inside Bureaucracy" (1967), the latter two of which are considered academic classics.

Consequently, although the book is designed somewhat like a textbook in format -- including nine chapters and various subsections -- the author's narrative gift for telling stories about complicated economic and political issues makes his latest release easy to both skim and read in greater detail (you may find yourself jotting down notes in the margins). He doesn't "dumb down" the subject matter like a populist real estate book with an exclamation point in the title might do...

Towards the end of the book, Downs gets out his economic crystal ball to peer ahead into the future, and what he sees still remains a bit murky: a credit crunch lasting another one to three years, the real estate capital market gradually improving as investors grow impatient with other asset classes, but a timeline that will depend greatly on how the broader stock market fares in comparison.

Within that context, the author assigns probabilities to four potential future scenarios, including a weak U.S. recession and a speedy recovery by the end of 2009 (15 percent chance); a bad U.S. recession in 2009 and tight credit through 2010 (65 percent); a more serious recession lasting throughout 2010 resulting in a collapse of the dollar and higher interest rates (8 percent); and a recession lasting two to three years including massive federal spending, ongoing inflationary pressures and high interest rates (12 percent).

So what is Downs' latest update from my interview with him? A 65 percent chance of a two-year recession (lasting into 2010), and new housing production levels lower in 2009 than in 2008.

Let's just hope that it's this scenario that turns out to be true and not the one which leads to rampant inflation, high interest rates and a dollar collapse.

I also interviewed author Downs for my show at BlogTalkRadio, which you can either listen to here or by clicking on the audio player on the right margin of this blog.

Want to buy this book? Click here or on the link below.

Interview with author Anthony Downs, "Real Estate and the Financial Crisis"

Yesterday I interviewed Dr. Anthony Downs, author of the new book out by the Urban Land Institute called "Real Estate and the Financial Crisis: How Turmoil in the Capital Markets is Restructuring Real Estate Finance."

Downs, who received his PhD in Economics from Stanford University, is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution as well as a well-known writer and speaker, and has consulted with the nation's largest corporations, developers and government agencies.

This latest title marks Tony's 27th book, which I'll soon be reviewing for the Inman News service, but for now you can listen to the podcast on the widget below (due to a minor technical glitch, my bumper music started playing during the intro, which threw me a bit. But that's show biz!). Downs has also written "Niagara of Capital: How Global Capital Has Transformed Housing and Real Estate Markets," "Still Stuck in Traffic," and "Growth Management and Affordable Housing: Do They Conflict?" Earlier in his career, he also wrote "An Economic Theory of Democracy" and "Inside Bureaucracy."



If you want to buy this book from Amazon.com click on the link below.

Housing Chronicles in this month's NewsTex Blogger Spotlight

In early 2008, I signed up with a blog syndication service called Newstex, and they regularly feed my blog posts to LexisNexis, Thomson Reuters, CanMedia West and, most recently, the Amazon Kindle. This month they asked me to participate in their monthly "Blogger in the Spotlight" interview series, in which they inquire why I started blogging, my plans for the future and what I think about the media landscape and where blogs fit in that universe. You can read that interview here, but for now here are some excerpts:

Newstex: How did you get started writing your current blog?

Patrick Duffy: I started my blog in November of 2007 after noticing that almost all of the housing blogs online were focused only on the housing bubble as well as to promote my company, MetroIntelligence Real Estate Advisors. Many didn’t even pretend to be objective, only focusing on the bad news that would help the authors substantiate their theory that the housing market was certainly doomed. Since I wanted to create a blog for the long term, I specifically avoided any reference to a housing ‘bubble’ or ‘crisis,’ and instead chose the very generic term ‘Housing Chronicles.’ Over time, I’ve expanded it to include coverage not just on housing, but also on commercial development...

Newstex: What makes your blog unique?

I write my blog from the perspective of a consultant to the building industry for over 20 years who has already been through one of these boom-and-bust cycles. My regular reading list is pretty comprehensive, including most major newspapers and a variety of magazine titles related to current events, politics, general business as well as real estate development...

Newstex: What is the best thing that has happened to you as a result of your work on your blog?

I’d say definitely the new blogger friends I’ve made online as well as new clients I probably wouldn’t have met through traditional networking. For example, last week a reporter and blogger for the Orange County Register interviewed me for his BlogTalkRadio show, and I was so impressed with the technology and the final product that I’ve signed up for my own show and will be interviewing the authors of the real estate books I review. Another blogger with traffic exponentially greater than mine became a fan of my writing, so now he features some of his favorite posts for a weekend thread, which in turn has helped build my traffic...

Newstex: What effects do you think blogging will have on traditional media? How about on your industry?

I think that blogging is already having a tremendous impact on traditional media, and I’m not sure that attacking bloggers who use material from AP is going to save their business models; what the industry needs to do is come up with a ‘fair use’ policy, so bloggers can cite a maximum number of words from an original article and must provide a link as well as appropriate credit.

From the very beginning of Housing Chronicles, I’ve made it a policy to cite my sources at least two to three times in a post. In order for traditional papers to survive, they’re going to have to make it palatable to charge users for content (either through micropayments or subscription models), reduce their cost structures and see bloggers as alliance partners rather than enemies.

Housing Chronicles joins Newstex

Along with the syndication service BlogBurst (which will hit 3 million headline views later today or tomorrow for this blog), Housing Chronicles has also been invited to join a similar service called "NewsTex Blogs on Demand." Originally started in 2004 as a syndicator of traditional news content from a 'who's who' of hundreds of online publishers including the AP, The New York Times, Lexis-Nexis, BBC, PRNewswire, BusinessWire and others, NewsTex now also provides standardized blog postings to clients including Lexis-Nexis, CanWest (Canada's largest media conglomerate) and the research database service EBSCO.

Other blogs participating with the NewsTex service include MaddMoney, ValuePlays, Naked Capitalism and Action! Economics. The NewsTex Blogs on Demand service was also named the Top New Technology in Information Today's 2007 Peoples Choice Awards. I look forward to extending the reach of Housing Chronicles through syndicators including BlogBurst, Sphere and NewsTex and always welcome input from readers and other bloggers.