Friday, July 22, 2016

Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey falls slightly in July

Manufacturing activity in the region fell slightly in July, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Although the indicator for current general activity turned negative, indicators for new orders and shipments were positive. The survey’s index of future activity improved slightly, and firms expect growth in new orders and shipments over the next six months.

Leading Economic Index rebounded in June

The U.S. LEI picked up in June, reversing its May decline. Improvements in initial claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and financial indicators were the primary drivers. While the LEI continues to point to moderating economic growth in the U.S. through the end of 2016, the expansion still appears resilient enough to weather volatility in financial markets and a moderating outlook in labor markets.

BuilderBytes' MetroIntelligence Economic Update for 7/22/16

Please click here to see the edition of BuilderBytes for 7/22/16 on the Web.

In this issue of the MetroIntelligence Economic Update, I covered the following indicator
  • Existing home sales rose for the fourth straight month in June
  • FHFA:  Home prices up 0.2 percent in May and 5.6 percent year-on-year
  • Mortgage applications dip 1.3 percent in latest survey
  • Initial unemployment claims fall 1,000 in latest report
Want to advertise in the newsletter and reach over 130,000 readers? Contact the editor at nslevin@penpubinc.com.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

BuilderBytes' MetroIntelligence Economic Update for 7/21/16

Please click here to see the edition of BuilderBytes for 7/21/16 on the Web.


In this issue of the MetroIntelligence Economic Update, we covered the following indicators:

  • June building permits up 1.5 percent from May but down 13.6 percent year-on-year
  • June housing starts up 4.8 percent from May but down 2.0 percent year-on-year
Want to advertise in this three-times-per-week newsletter and reach over 130,000 readers? Contact the editor at nslevin@penpubinc.com.

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Register now for 7th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference on 9/29/16!


Want to know what to expect for the Inland Empire economy now through 2035?

Please join MetroIntelligence, Beacon Economics and UC Riverside for the 7th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference on September 29, 2016 in Riverside.

Use our special discount code to save $25 to register!

For more info, visit http://conference.economicforecasting.org/



Tuesday, July 19, 2016

What was the impact of Brexit on Britain's property market?

Now that American stock markets have more than regained the losses sustained after the pro-Brexit vote, another question remaining is the impact on the property market.


What’s in store for the property market post Brexit?

In the weeks leading up to the EU referendum, there was much speculation about the potential impact of a leave vote. George Osborne, chancellor of the Exchequer and effectively the No. 2 official in the British government, warned that house prices could fall by as much as 18% by 2018 - a forecast branded as 'scaremongery' by leave campaigners. The International Monetary Fund also agreed that Brexit would trigger sharp drops in house prices.

Now that the result is known and the dust has started to settle, everyone is wondering how Britain leaving the Union will affect them. The only thing that’s certain in the current climate is uncertainty.


Homeowners and Landlords

In the Bank of England’s bi-annual Financial Stability Report released recently, economist and bank Governor Mark Carney warned that “conditions will be difficult” for future mortgage borrowers due to the economic volatility in the past week.

For existing homeowners and landlords, the predicted drop in house prices is worrying. Falling house prices and inflated interest rates could cause fluctuation in loan to value ratios, resulting in negative equity.

Landlord insurance provider HomeLet reported in its most recent Rental Index that rents have continued to rise in the first half of the year, although they have slightly slowed during the past last year in the wake of the UK deciding to leave the EU.

The average rent (excluding Greater London) has risen to £773 (US$1,031) per month, which is 3.5 per cent higher than last year, according to the report. Average rent in London has risen to £1,575 (US$2101) per month, up 3.9 per cent over the last year.


Housing crisis

One prediction made by the Leave Campaign was that the housing crisis would be resolved by leaving the EU. This prediction was made on the assumption that the demand for housing would be decreased by reduced immigration. However, sharp drops in share prices caused by the leave vote may mean that house builders will not be able to secure funding for new developments, resulting in housing targets not being met. Berkeley and Barratt Developments both experienced a significant drop, followed by a slight rise, in share prices.


Commercial property

Commercial property funds, with over £9bn ($US12bn) of investors’ money, halted redemptions early in July after an increase in investors withdrawing. Companies including M&G, Aviva and Standard Life all made this move, with others expecting to follow. Share prices have gradually stabilized, but there is still widespread uncertainty.


June building permits up 1.5 percent from May but down 13.6 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,153,000. This is 1.5 percent above the revised May rate of 1,136,000, but is 13.6 percent below the June 2015 estimate of 1,334,000.

READ MORE

June housing starts up 4.8 percent from May but down 2.0 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,189,000. This is 4.8 percent above the revised May estimate of 1,135,000, but is 2.0 percent below the June 2015 rate of 1,213,000.

READ MORE

BuilderBytes' MetroIntelligence Economic Update for 7/19/16

 
Please click here to see the edition of BuilderBytes for 7/19/16 on the Web.

In this issue of the MetroIntelligence Economic Update, we covered the following indicators:
  • Builder confidence dips one point to 59 in July
  • CPI rose 0.2 percent in June and 1.0 percent over previous 12 months
  • Retail sales up 0.6 percent in June and 2.7 percent year-on-year
  • Consumer sentiment declines in mid-July after Brexit vote
Want to advertise in this three-times-per-week newsletter and reach over 130,000 readers? Contact the editor at nslevin@penpubinc.com.

Monday, July 18, 2016

Consumer sentiment declines in mid-July after Brexit vote

The early July decline in consumer sentiment was due to increased concerns about prospects for the national economy that were mainly voiced by high income households. Importantly, the least affected components have been personal finances and buying plans.