The Housing Chronicles Blog

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

CoreLogic: June home prices up 0.7 percent from May and 6.8 percent year-on-year

CoregLogic:  June home prices increased nationally by 0.7 percent from May and 6.8 percent year over year. Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that the national home-price index is projected to continue to increase by 5.1 percent over the next year.

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JOLTS: June job openings rose 0.5 percent as surplus of open positions remains

Although overall job openings were nearly flat between the final days of May and June (rising by 0.5 percent to 6.7 million), hires fell 1.67 percent while separations rose 1.53 percent. With 6.6 million unemployed persons in June (falling to 6.3 million in July), there still likely remains a surplus of open positions.

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Friday, August 3, 2018

Service sector index dips 3.4 points in July to 55.7

The NMI® registered 55.7 percent in July, which is 3.4 percentage points lower than the June reading of 59.1 percent. There has been a ‘cooling off’ in growth for the non-manufacturing sector, and tariffs and deliveries are an ongoing concern. Still, the majority of respondents remain positive about business conditions and the economy.

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June trade deficit rose to $46.3 billion as imports rose faster than exports

The nation’s international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $46.3 billion in June from $43.2 billion in May, as exports decreased and imports increased.

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Online advertised vacancies rebounded by 170,800 in July

Online advertised vacancies increased by 170,800 to 4,651,500 in July, nearly erasing the loss of 171,633 noted for June. In July of 2017, the number of online job vacancies declined by 146,067.

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Jobs rose by 157,000 in July, unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 157,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down  to 3.9 percent. This growth rate compares with 248,000 in June and 190,000 in July of 2017. Employment increased in professional and business services, in manufacturing, and in health care and social assistance.

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Thursday, August 2, 2018

Initial unemployment claims rise by 1,000 in weekly report

In the week ending July 28, initial unemployment claims were 218,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 218,000.

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Bloomberg: Consumer Comfort Index slips from 17-year high, but gender gap at highest level since 1990

Bloomberg: The weekly Consumer Comfort Index eased to 58.6 from a 17-year high 59 in previous week as the gender gap widened to 18.6 points in favor of men, up from 16.5 points in prior week.  This is the highest gap since 1990.

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June factory goods orders rose 0.7 percent, up for second straight month

New orders for U.S.-made goods rose for a second straight month in June and were up by 0.7 percent, but business spending plans on equipment slipped from initial estimates, suggesting a further
slowdown was likely in the third quarter.

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July planned job cuts fall to lowest level of 2018, but YTD cuts still up 6.7 percent from 2017

U.S.-based employers announced plans to cut 27,122 workers from payrolls during July, down both 27.1 percent from June and 4.2 percent year-on-year.  Although July's total was the lowest of the year, YTD job cuts are still up 6.7 percent from 2017. Still, nearly 90 percent of companies polled are in hiring or retention mode.

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Wednesday, August 1, 2018

ISM Manufacturing Index dips to 58.1, high concerns regarding tariffs

The July PMI® registered 58.1 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the June reading of 60.2 percent.

Production and employment continues to expand in spite of labor and material shortages. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — had expansion increases, due primarily to negative supply chain issues, but at easing levels compared to the prior month. Price pressure remains strong, but the index softened for the second straight month.

Demand remains robust, but the nation’s employment resources and supply chains continue to struggle. Respondents are again overwhelmingly concerned about how tariff-related activity, including reciprocal tariffs, will continue to affect their business.

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Mortgage applications dip 2.6 percent as rates rise to 4.84 percent


The Market Composite Index decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans falling 3.0 percent and refinances down 2.0 percent.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.84 percent from 4.77 percent.


FOMC Statement: Rates unchanged for now, but future 2018 hikes ahead

As expected, the Fed opted to keep interest rates unchanged for now, but warns of future rate hikes to come in 2018, perhaps as soon as September.

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ADP: Private Sector Employment Increased by 219,000 Jobs in July

Private-sector employment increased by 219,000 from June to July, on a seasonally adjusted basis. 
This compares to 181,000 in June and 203,000 in July of 2017.

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June construction spending fell by largest amount in over a year, but previous months' totals revised upwards

Construction spending fell 1.1 percent in June, the largest decline since April 2017. However, data for May was revised up to show construction outlays rising 1.3 percent instead of the previously reported 0.4 percent gain, and April's outlays increased 1.7 percent instead of the previously estimated 0.9 percent.

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