A decidedly somber affair at this year's PCBC

Each year in June or July, tens of thousands of builders, suppliers and subcontractors converge on San Francisco's Moscone Center for the Pacific Coast Builders' Conference, but this year the total is down to just about 14,000 attendees (I also decided against attending this year due to a convergence of work deadlines). From the San Francisco Chronicle:

"California's home building industry is in the worst shape ever," said Horace Hogan, chairman of the California Building Industry Association, the trade group that puts on PCBC, and president of Brehm Communities, a Carlsbad (San Diego County) home builder, speaking at a news conference.

"Every builder I know has laid off most of their staff, and contractors and suppliers we've done business with for years have folded up shop." The show reflected that contraction. At the peak of the housing boom in 2006, it drew 35,000 attendees. Last year there were about 19,000. This year only 14,000 people came to Moscone. Even with a smaller exhibit floor, the aisles were noticeably underpopulated...

Hogan had a variety of grim statistics to tick off. Although the 65,000 housing starts in California in 2008 were the lowest ever recorded, "As bad as last year was, right now 2009 looks like it might even be worse," he said, citing projections of only 40,000 housing units this year. That sluggish pace means the loss of more than 360,000 jobs and $50 billion from the state's economy, he said.

California's $10,000 tax credit for people who buy a new home is something the builders would dearly like to see extended. They say not only does it help their industry, but it generates state and local taxes, creates jobs and stimulates the economy.

Sam Chandan, president and chief economist of New York's Real Estate Econometrics, had more downbeat news at a session on the economic outlook, predicting a huge wave of defaults in commercial mortgages.

"About $300 billion in commercial mortgages will come due between now and the end of 2009, and the same in 2010," he said. "We lack the capacity to refinance them. This will lead to a significant increase in defaults and delinquency rates for commercial mortgages..."

During the last downturn of the early 1990s in California, people could choose to find a job in another industry or move temporarily to Las Vegas or Phoenix to find work in the local building industry. But now with the entire economy in recession, there are few good substitutes.

And as for those commenters you always see online (probably sitting alone in their underwear) who quack, "Greedy builders! Had it coming! Get what they deserve!" please give it a rest, it's just not helpful, nor is it original. You could say the same thing about bloated governments, badly managed car companies, irresponsible bankers or media companies which haven't reacted quickly enough to the creative destruction fomented by technology. Like it or not, we're now in this together, and quacking out the same tired lines of schadenfreude is just boring.

About that California economy...

Wonder just when the California economy is expected to revive itself? According to economists at Chapman University, although the recession may technically lift by the second half of the year, we won't feel better about things until 2010. First, from an L.A. Times story:

The Chapman forecasters expect nonfarm payroll employment in California to continue falling into next year before beginning to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2010. California will lose an estimated 437,000 jobs in 2009 and an additional 56,000 jobs next year, they said...

Job losses have spilled across all sectors as layoffs in the construction industry led to cutbacks at law firms, accounting firms and most other sectors, excluding health and education. Even as the economy turns around, cautious companies will probably be slow to begin hiring again, which will lead to a sluggish recovery in the state...

The Southern California median home price last month was $249,000, down 51% from May 2007, according to figures released Wednesday by MDA DataQuick of San Diego. It's the fifth straight month that median prices have hovered around $250,000, though May did show a slight increase in prices for the region.

Chapman forecasters expect home prices to strengthen in 2010 as banks become more willing to lend to prospective buyers and fewer new homes come on the market. Home prices will rise 0.8% in the state next year after falling 35% in the state in 2008, the economists say...

A few days earlier, the UCLA Anderson Forecast released its own projections on the local and regional economy, and pretty much rained all over Chapman's parade, citing increasing unemployment and an economy that won't bounce back until at least late 2011. Also from an L.A. Times story:

Despite some healing in the national economy, California still faces significant difficulty, in part because of the state's budget woes, economic forecasters at UCLA say.

Unemployment in the state will reach 12.1% by the end of this year and will not return to single digits until late in 2011, economists predicted in the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, which was set to be released today...

Construction jobs, which fell 12% in 2008, are expected to drop more than 15% this year as demand continues to fall for both residential and commercial development. Already, activity has dropped so dramatically in the state that developers are now under-building for the size of California's population, sowing the seeds of another housing bubble, the report said...

Bill Watkins, executive director of California Lutheran University's Center for Economic Research and Forecasting, agreed with the Anderson group that California faces a rougher road than the rest of the nation.

"California's economy is quite a bit weaker than the U.S. economy, and we don't expect to see a recovery any time soon," he said. The state will not come out of recession until the second half of 2011, he predicted...

So who's right and who's wrong? Well, UCLA insisted there was no recession until it was so painfully obvious they had no choice to reverse themselves (and without ever admitting any fault), and Chapman was so off on their projections for Orange County that the local BIA group decided to give another economic forecasting group a try for awhile. I guess we'll have to wait until 2011 to see!

Lending for builders to remain tight until at least 2010

It's interesting these days to listen to economists or pundits who read through reams of data and declare, "There's plenty of credit -- just not at the price you want!" and then actually sit down with those who are trying to get deals done, and it's a very different story.

Yesterday some colleagues and I had lunch with a wealthy private investor (who claims to have access to $1.5 billion cash and another $500 million in other sources), and for people like him, the lack of credit -- which he doesn't need -- is providing him with some great opportunities, although he also remains on the sidelines because the spread between what sellers want and what buyers are offering is in the 25% range. For now, and likely through 2010, most buyers of land and many commercial properties will be families and groups of friends with money to invest, because credit is expected to remain tight for at least another 12 months. From a BuilderOnline.com story:

Builders immediately saw banks tighten up credit last fall, when the financial crisis began, and the government’s billion-dollar bailout to the banking industry seems to have had little effect. Builders can’t get money to buy land. They can’t get loans to develop lots. They can’t convince banks to joint-venture with them on partially finished developments, even when the bank already owns the land and would have minimal risk...

Unfortunately for builders, the current tight credit situation is likely to continue into 2010, according to experts interviewed by BUILDER in recent weeks. The reasons are myriad: a struggling economy, capital pressures, consumer credit problems, banking consolidation, and regulatory and accounting uncertainties, and of course, falling home prices...

Unfortunately for builders seeking capital, real estate loans represent a major factor in those losses.
Last year, banks reported net charge-off rates of 0.99% for all loans and 0.73% for real estate loans for the first quarter. This year, those figures doubled, to a net charge-off of 1.94% for all loans and 1.44% for real estate loans.

A similar trend occurred in noncurrent loans, which are at least 90 days past due. Overall, banks said 3.77% of all loans were noncurrent in the first quarter of this year, compared to 1.72% one year ago. A prime offender? Real estate, where the percentage of noncurrent loans jumped from 2.21% in 2008’s first quarter to 4.89% for 2009’s first quarter. Within that category, construction and development lending is the most troubled, with nearly 11% of such loans more than 90 days past due.

Even worse from the banks’ perspective, the bulk (61%) of the industry’s current $7.7 trillion in loans outstanding is in real estate loans, including $567 billion in construction and development lending...

Many banks, already weighed down by significant numbers of real estate owned (REO) properties, are wary of adding any additional land investments to their books, even in relatively low-risk joint ventures where the bank supplies the REO land and builders simply construct the homes.

Just like builders and homeowners, falling land values have eroded the value of banks’ land assets, forcing them to raise capital to protect against potential losses. In this declining market, they must also boost their reserves enough to satisfy bank examiners, who expressed worries about commercial real estate lending exposure at banks as early as 2006...

Accounting rules add another wrinkle. For accounting and financial risk reasons, regulators may not approve of a bank’s continued involvement in a real estate project and want the lender to realize any gains or losses as soon as possible. As a result, banks are doing everything they can to exit land deals quickly because if the project drags on (which is certainly likely in today’s weak market and struggling economy), bankers may need to account for that dirt differently due to its “troubled status,”...

Lack of resources may be another issue, particularly at smaller banks. At the same time as builders are begging and pleading for funding, lending institutions are dealing with a host of other challenges requiring time and resources—new credit card laws, personal and corporate bankruptcies, foreclosures, and mortgage modifications. They simply may not have the people, time, or expertise to carefully evaluate a builder’s proposal, no matter how promising.

The future of homebuilding is -- spiritual?

Pollster John Zogby has some interesting advice for builders attending the Pacific Coast Builders' Conference in San Francisco this week: move away from marketing quantity in favor of quality of life. That's because there's a sea change among the American consumer that's expected to continue well beyond this recessionary cycle. From a BuilderOnline story:

Pollster John Zogby, speaking at this week's PCBC in San Francisco, argued that for a growing percentage of the population the American dream is defined by spiritual rather than materialist goals. His polls show that 46% of the American public defines the American dream by quality of life rather than quantity of possessions. Builders, he said, won't be able to "function properly" unless they get to know these buyers intimately, whether through market research or living among them...

Zogby outlined four pools of people who share this spiritual connection. A sizable portion of the population, he said, is now working for less. They have de-emphasized what they own or where they live to define themselves. "They are the new American consumer," he said, adding that these are smart consumers who will shop for bargains but save money to buy something nice they really want. It's a mistake to try to reach this group by marketing fantasy; reality is what appeals to them.

A second cohort of 9 to 10 million Americans has done very well in life, but it is now making a conscious decision to stop materialist behavior. They may decide not to do a 4,000 square foot addition because they aren't fully utilizing the 5,000 square foot home they already have. They don't want the hassle of owning even more. "There's a real movement toward simplification," Zogby said.

Aging baby boomers, 78 million strong, are a third source of secular spiritualism. Many who believe they changed the world when they were 19 are now looking for a second act as they turn 60. Zogby suggested that this generation, instead of looking forward to retirement, is searching for "encore living," a way to spend the remaining years of their life giving back to society through volunteer work and other endeavors.

The fourth group of spiritualists is inclined toward personal sacrifice. "One of the great untold stories of the last 25 years is the revolution in recycling," said Zogby, who did some of the early survey work with local governments that revealed a latent desire to recycle. "Americans are looking for the next wave of sacrifice," he said, suggesting that it will be in the area of sustainability. "We are citizens of the planet Earth."

Besides appealing to buyers looking for spiritual fulfillment, Zogby recommended that builders pay close attention to the behavior of Generation Y, which are 18- to 30-year-olds.

These are America's first global citizens, he said, citing polls that show 56% have a passport and travel abroad, and one fourth say they expect to live and work in a foreign country within their lifetime. This group communicates through social networks with friends from foreign countries. They follow international sports. They may marry people from foreign countries. They are a mobile group that wants to cluster in urban areas. They will have an average of four jobs before they turn 30.

"They may not want to live in the same place forever," said Zogby, arguing that this demographic will create new forms of shared homeownership to accommodate their mobile lifestyle.

Los Angeles Economic Conference set for July 28, 2009

In conjunction with Pepperdine University and the L.A. Chamber of Commerce, MetroIntelligence partner Beacon Economics has announced their inaugural Los Angeles Economic Conference for July 28, 2009 at the Los Angles Airport Marriott (near LAX).

Want to register? Click here. MetroIntelligence is also offering clients and blog readers a special discount code for this event -- email us at info@metrointel.com!

WHAT'S NEXT LA?
THE ROAD TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Los Angeles Airport Marriott
5855 West Century Boulevard, Los Angeles, California 90045

Registration and Breakfast 7:30 AM
Program: 8:00-11:00 AM

Tickets:
$75 through Friday, July 24, $100 thereafter
Limited Seating

Beacon Economics, the Graziadio School of Business and Management at Pepperdine University, and the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce have joined forces to launch a new, annual Los Angeles economic forecast conference. Join us at the inaugural event on Tuesday, July 28 as we provide a thought-provoking look at where the national, state, and Los Angeles economies are headed.

Leading economic forecasters, top academic researchers, and a high-profile CEO panel make this a "must see" event for decision makers from across private industry and the public sector. The buzz has already begun...and seating is limited...so register today!

Featured Speakers
Christopher Thornberg Founding Principal Beacon Economics	Linda A. Livingstone Dean Pepperdine University Graziadio School of Business and Management	Brad Kemp Director Regional Studies Beacon Economics	John Paglia Assoc. Professor Pepperdine University Graziadio School of Business and Management

Industry and the '09 Recession: CEO Insights Panel
Dr. Ronald Sugar CEO Northrup Grumman (invited)	Maria Contreras-Sweet Founding Chairwoman Proamerica Bank	Dr. Bob Chu President Kaiser Permanente Southern California (invited)	Moderator (To Be Announced)

Get Answers to 2009's Burning Questions... The stock market is screaming a "V" but bonds "U." What will this recovery look like for the state, the nation, and Southern California? Home sales are up, but so are mortgage delinquencies. Which will matter more to the housing market recovery? The Feds giveth but the state taketh away. How will the Golden State's budget turmoil affect Los Angeles?

Registrants receive:

• 2009 Los Angeles Economic Forecast Book
• 1 year of quarterly updates to the Los Angeles forecast

June column for Builder & Developer magazine now online

My column for the June issue of Builder & Developer magazine is now online. The subject this month is on the current state of real estate journalism, and what builder & developers can do to encourage more balanced reportage from not just traditional reporters, but also from bloggers as well.

I wrote it because I was mourning the passing of L.A. Times reporter Annette Haddad, whom I think really did want to get a story right and include all of the necessary angles. But I also wanted to impart some tips I learned from my own freelance writing experience for the Times, when getting a builder to comment for a story was akin to ordering manna from heaven. In other words, close to impossible.

Since I know it's certainly not in any company's best interest -- in any industry -- to prefer to see the the line "Company x didn't return calls for comment" published for all to see, I can only assume such reactions are due to poor communication, management or both.

You can read that column here. For the entire June issue's table of contents, click here.

These federal deficits were years in the making

Lately, it seems to be the criticism du jour to pin the entire (rising) federal deficit at the feet of Barack Obama, who has only been in office since January.

Meanwhile, I continue to get somewhat unhinged email blasts from some of my more conservative friends who, quite frankly, don't know what they're talking about when they drone on about Obama's policies being the end of civilization as we know it (as well as the apparent end of baseball and apple pie). Of course I want to reply, "Perhaps you should get that pesky bankruptcy off your credit report before throwing stones at Obama's fiscal house!" but I'm simply too polite to do so.

And, while I'm certainly no fan of the entire array of the policy prescriptions of the Obama Administration (and think his lack of a business background is beginning to show), the truth is that these deficits took years to build up, and they won't disappear simply because Sarah Palin is now pulling a new string on her back that quacks, "I told you so!" From a New York Times story:

There are two basic truths about the enormous deficits that the federal government will run in the coming years.

The first is that President Obama’s agenda, ambitious as it may be, is responsible for only a sliver of the deficits, despite what many of his Republican critics are saying. The second is that Mr. Obama does not have a realistic plan for eliminating the deficit, despite what his advisers have suggested.

The New York Times analyzed Congressional Budget Office reports going back almost a decade, with the aim of understanding how the federal government came to be far deeper in debt than it has been since the years just after World War II. This debt will constrain the country’s choices for years and could end up doing serious economic damage if foreign lenders become unwilling to finance it...

The story of today’s deficits starts in January 2001, as President Bill Clinton was leaving office. The Congressional Budget Office estimated then that the government would run an average annual surplus of more than $800 billion a year from 2009 to 2012. Today, the government is expected to run a $1.2 trillion annual deficit in those years.

You can think of that roughly $2 trillion swing as coming from four broad categories: the business cycle, President George W. Bush’s policies, policies from the Bush years that are scheduled to expire but that Mr. Obama has chosen to extend, and new policies proposed by Mr. Obama.

The first category — the business cycle — accounts for 37 percent of the $2 trillion swing. It’s a reflection of the fact that both the 2001 recession and the current one reduced tax revenue, required more spending on safety-net programs and changed economists’ assumptions about how much in taxes the government would collect in future years.

About 33 percent of the swing stems from new legislation signed by Mr. Bush. That legislation, like his tax cuts and the Medicare prescription drug benefit, not only continue to cost the government but have also increased interest payments on the national debt.

Mr. Obama’s main contribution to the deficit is his extension of several Bush policies, like the Iraq war and tax cuts for households making less than $250,000. Such policies — together with the Wall Street bailout, which was signed by Mr. Bush and supported by Mr. Obama — account for 20 percent of the swing.

About 7 percent comes from the stimulus bill that Mr. Obama signed in February. And only 3 percent comes from Mr. Obama’s agenda on health care, education, energy and other areas...

The solution, though, is no mystery. It will involve some combination of tax increases and spending cuts. And it won’t be limited to pay-as-you-go rules, tax increases on somebody else, or a crackdown on waste, fraud and abuse. Your taxes will probably go up, and some government programs you favor will become less generous.

That is the legacy of our trillion-dollar deficits. Erasing them will be one of the great political issues of the coming decade.

And something that won't be addressed simply by "Drill, baby, drill!"

Feasibility consultants sharply discounting fees

I got a phone call yesterday from a friendly competitor of mine, and apparently the desperation that has afflicted much of the real estate world has now started to impact the world of real estate consultants -- those firms which are hired by builders, developers, lenders and municipalities to conduct (supposedly objective) research on the feasibility of proposed development projects.

This is interesting to me because the same companies which advised me to "never, ever" discount fees or risk making what we do a commodity item, have discounted so steeply that it seems they're doing whatever they can to simply keep the lights on and the rent paid on the commercial space they've rented. Not all, but certainly some.

One way I think they're making do these days is with what my business partners at Beacon Economics and HousingEcon and I call 'the data dump.' Rather than tie together various indices with a useful narrative and attempt to *accurately* forecast when sales or prices might stabilize, they think their clients -- much like a newborn baby in a crib looking at a shiny mobile -- will be so pleased with reams of data depicting tables and charts that they'll never bother to read whatever narrative was included, nor will they ask questions if the data doesn't support the conclusions. In other words, it's often simply a report for the file.

That's why now, more than ever, clients get what they pay for when selecting consultants of any type, whether it's an attorney, an accountant, a financial analysts or a market feasibility expert. After all, it's just not realistic to waltz into Target or WalMart and expect to get the same quality you might find at Nordstrom or Saks.

We saw that happened during the boom years, with the data dumps masquerading as genuine analysis -- global economic meltdown and unemployment of over 80% in the state's building industry. And let's try not to repeat that, shall we? It's more than just price alone.

Some outlying areas of SoCal down to 1989 price levels

There's an interesting story in the L.A. Times about prices in certain outlying submarkets -- such as Lancaster/Palmdale or Hemet/San Jacinto -- falling to levels not seen since 1989 (and that's not even adjusting for inflation). Although many investors have been swarming into flip for a quick profit, those who bought a year ago have still taken about a 10% haircut, and more price declines may follow as the second and third waves of foreclosures (related to Option ARM re-sets and job losses) take hold later this year. In some cases, however, these prices are so low that if your home caught fire and you had to re-build, you'd pay twice as much. From the story:

Properties in several areas are selling for less than they did 20 years ago, and that's not even counting the effects of inflation.

The reversal is a bonanza for some first-time buyers. They're nabbing houses for less than what their parents paid in the late 1980s, jumping into a real estate market that has become a kind of economic time machine...

Home prices across most of Southern California have not fallen nearly as far. The median price in the six-county area was $247,000 in April, about what it was in 2002.

But in 14 Southland ZIP Codes, mainly desert communities in the Antelope Valley and Inland Empire, median prices have fallen below levels recorded in April 1989, according to MDA DataQuick, a San Diego real estate information service.

That means thousands of homes in those neighborhoods -- even houses barely 20 years old and in decent shape -- have lost every dime of their appreciation, giving back not just the gains of the recent bubble but steady increases logged over a generation...

Prices also tumbled below 1989 levels in neighborhoods in Palmdale, Hemet, Barstow, Desert Hot Springs, Victorville, Highland, Santa Ana and Oxnard, according to DataQuick. Several other inland communities, including parts of Moreno Valley, Banning and Rialto, had median prices that were only slightly above 1989 levels and below the April 1990 median...

Miss the Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference?

If you missed the Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference hosted by Beacon Economics on May 19th in Redlands, fear not -- you can still download a copy of the conference book (MetroIntelligence wrote the sections on residential and commercial real estate) as well as .pdf version of each speakers' PowerPoint files:

Conference book

Chris Thornberg's presentation (national trends)

Brad Kemp's presentation (regional trends & forecast)

Johannes Moenius (Inland Empire housing)

Jim Brulte (history of liberal vs. conservative ideology)

John Rossi (California water delivery system & issues)

Reverse mortgages could be the next scam for many

As less-than-honest mortgage brokers look for their next victims after the sub-prime debacle, a U.S. bank regulator is now warning seniors about reverse mortgages, a subject I wrote about for the L.A. Times in February of 2008.

What can seniors do to protect themselves? From a story at CNNMoney.com:

Reverse mortgages could be the next subprime mortgage product to experience rapid growth while taking advantage of a vulnerable segment of the population, top U.S. bank regulator John Dugan said Monday.

Dugan, who heads the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and supervises some of the nation's largest banks, said regulators are crafting guidelines to ensure that robust consumer protections are in place for reverse mortgages...

Reverse mortgages are complicated loans targeted at homeowners who are at least 62 years old, and allow older Americans to live off the equity in their homes as they age.

In a reverse mortgage, the homeowner receives money from the lender, which does not have to be repaid as long as the borrower lives in the home...

The great majority of reverse mortgages are insured by the Federal Housing Administration and pose limited credit risk. But Dugan said a different class of reverse mortgages -- "proprietary" products -- offer less consumer protections.

Dugan said that as the elderly American population grows, there could be a significant pickup in demand for proprietary reverse mortgages, which he said bear significant similarities to the type of subprime products that helped fuel the housing boom and bust, resulting in a widespread credit crisis and recession...

He said regulators need to set more standards for proprietary reverse mortgages. Regulators also need to be vigilant about misleading marketing and need to crack down on any lenders who try to bundle a reverse mortgage with other financial products, such as an annuity or life insurance product, Dugan said.

Is there a VAT in our future?

Worried about the rising federal debt? You should be, because even after the current stimulus plan has passed, future spending on entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare will continue to far exceed revenues. Since increasing income taxes on those making over $250,000 (and even below) will still not be enough to close the gap, some experts from both the left and right portions of the political spectrum are suggested that the U.S. might soon have the type of VAT tax that's long been standard in Europe. From a Fortune story:

The bill is far too big for only the rich to pick up. There aren't enough of them. America will have to lean on citizens far below the $250,000 income threshold: nurses, electricians, secretaries, and factory workers. Within a decade the average household that pays income tax will owe the equivalent of $155,000 in federal debt, about $90,000 more than last year. What the Obama administration isn't telling Americans is that the only practical solution is a giant tax increase aimed squarely at the middle class. The alternative, big cuts in spending, aren't part of the President's agenda...

The most likely levy: a European-style value-added tax (VAT) that would substantially raise the price of everything from autos to restaurant meals...

What will shock America into action is the prospect of fiscal collapse, which will grow more vivid each year. In 2008 federal borrowing accounted for 41% of GDP, about the postwar average. By 2019 the burden will double to 82% by the CBO's reckoning, reaching $17.3 trillion, nearly triple last year's level. By that point $1 of every six the U.S. spends will go to interest, compared with one in 12 last year. The U.S. trajectory points to the area that medieval maps labeled "Here Lie Dragons." After 2019 the debt rises with no ceiling in sight, according to all major forecasts, driven by the growth of interest and entitlements. The Government Accountability Office estimates that if current policies continue, interest will absorb 30% of all revenues by 2040 and entitlements will consume the rest, leaving nothing for defense, education, or veterans' benefits...

A VAT...would tax such a giant pool of purchases that a relatively low rate of 10% to 15% could generate the revenues needed to pay for Obama's agenda and balance the budget. The VAT, which would be imposed like a federal sales tax, is paid along the chain of production by wholesalers and retailers. The cost is passed to consumers in the form of higher prices. For the Democrats, the problem with the VAT is that it falls heavily on the middle class and low earners, who use a far higher portion of their incomes to buy things than the rich do. Some of the sting can be removed by exempting food and clothing from the VAT or sending rebates to lower-income households. But the middle class would be a big target in any event...

Click here for entire story.

Some unintended consequences of the new appraisal law

Although it's just been over one month since the Home Valuation Code of Conduct went live, there's already some concern that the law -- which requires that lenders set up a sort of 'third wall' in between lenders and appraisers -- has resulted in some unintended consequences, such as randomly assigning appraisers to value areas in which they have little or no expertise. From a story at BigBuilderOnline.com:

The new code, a pet project of former HUD secretary Andrew Cuomo, was an attempt to secure the independence of real estate appraisers, who, say the code's supporters, have been under continual pressure from lenders, mortgage brokers, real estate agents, and even home builders to inflate values. Under the new code, lenders have set up firewalls between their loan departments and their either internal or third-party appraisal services if they wanted be able to sell the loans on the secondary market to either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac...

The pain points for builders when it comes to appraisal issues mostly fall into three categories that add up to one outcome: further price erosion.

First, builders have complained that under the new rules, lenders are selecting appraisers from a generic pool, which is resulting in what they feel are inaccurate valuations. Prior to the code's implementation, many lenders had appraisers assigned to specific projects and submarkets. Now, builders have argued, appraisers are being assigned work on a random basis, so fewer of them come equipped with specific knowledge of the submarket or project, which in turn, is affecting appraisal values..

The second issue, for builders, is that appraisers have begun factoring foreclosures and short-sales into their comparative analyses. Many builders felt that was unfair because by mixing distress properties with true market rate properties, values would be driven down more than they already have been.

The third concern related to appraisers' obligation to indicate whether they believe the properties being assessed are in declining markets or not. Builders questioned not only whether giving a forward-looking snapshot of the markets was reasonable but also were curious to know to what extent labeling a market as in decline could negatively affect the loan's funding...

My review of "Real Estate and the Financial Crisis" now online

My review of the book "Real Estate and the Financial Crisis: How Turmoil in the Capital Markets is Restructuring Real Estate Finance"by economist and real estate writer Anthony Downs is now online at Inman News.

For now, here's an excerpt from the review:

As a senior fellow at the well-respected Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C., think tank with decades spent studying real estate markets, Downs didn't have to rely much on outside experts: in fact, he said that most of his research was conducted on the Internet. He cautions, though, that for the research novice it's often difficult to distinguish between fact and fiction on the World Wide (and wild) Web.

Downs, with 26 other books and more than 500 articles to his credit, has taken readers down similar paths before, including 2007's "Niagara of Capital: How Global Capital Has Transformed Housing and Real Estate Markets" as well as "An Economic Theory of Democracy" (1957) and "Inside Bureaucracy" (1967), the latter two of which are considered academic classics.

Consequently, although the book is designed somewhat like a textbook in format -- including nine chapters and various subsections -- the author's narrative gift for telling stories about complicated economic and political issues makes his latest release easy to both skim and read in greater detail (you may find yourself jotting down notes in the margins). He doesn't "dumb down" the subject matter like a populist real estate book with an exclamation point in the title might do...

Towards the end of the book, Downs gets out his economic crystal ball to peer ahead into the future, and what he sees still remains a bit murky: a credit crunch lasting another one to three years, the real estate capital market gradually improving as investors grow impatient with other asset classes, but a timeline that will depend greatly on how the broader stock market fares in comparison.

Within that context, the author assigns probabilities to four potential future scenarios, including a weak U.S. recession and a speedy recovery by the end of 2009 (15 percent chance); a bad U.S. recession in 2009 and tight credit through 2010 (65 percent); a more serious recession lasting throughout 2010 resulting in a collapse of the dollar and higher interest rates (8 percent); and a recession lasting two to three years including massive federal spending, ongoing inflationary pressures and high interest rates (12 percent).

So what is Downs' latest update from my interview with him? A 65 percent chance of a two-year recession (lasting into 2010), and new housing production levels lower in 2009 than in 2008.

Let's just hope that it's this scenario that turns out to be true and not the one which leads to rampant inflation, high interest rates and a dollar collapse.

I also interviewed author Downs for my show at BlogTalkRadio, which you can either listen to here or by clicking on the audio player on the right margin of this blog.

Want to buy this book? Click here or on the link below.

How would YOU end California's budget deficit?

Yes, I've been a bit remiss about blogging lately, but that's because impacts of the recession have left me personally distracted, which meant that the poor Housing Chronicles blog was temporarily sent to the corner. The income properties I have which have helped me weather the current storm also saddled me with multiple occupancies to fill as well as various maintenance items to address (new carpet, paint, repairs, etc.). Although renters always want their entire deposits returned, they seem to forget that ripping out something from a wall (and taking out plaster with it) does indeed incur a cost. At the same time, rents have softened just as more inventory (some of it shadow) has been dumped onto the marketplace.

Now as a former renter, I have a pretty good idea of what to do to attract tenants (spruce it up, advertise like mad, price under market, offer rent specials, offer unusual benefits such as free on-site laundry, be flexible), but it's hard to do all of that, run a consulting practice AND continue to blog regularly. So if you missed my snark, I do apologize, but things are now largely back under control, so blogging should resume at its normal pace today. But when I blog about changes in home prices or rents, etc., I'm also experiencing it at the same time.

So just as I've been managing my own revenue vs. surplus/deficit scenario, I learned about an interesting interactive feature on the L.A. Times Web site on the decisions YOU might make to balance the budget. I went through the exercise and managed to get a small surplus of about $800 million. Want to check it out? Click here.