The Housing Chronicles Blog: UCLA expects a dismal 2009

Thursday, December 11, 2008

UCLA expects a dismal 2009

After being somewhat late in calling the current recession, the UCLA Anderson Forecast is now predicting a dismal 2009 while dissing the private Chapman University's own forecasts. From an L.A. Times story:

Two million jobs could be lost nationwide next year under the weight of a severe global recession that shows no sign of relenting soon, UCLA forecasters say...

The nation's unemployment rate will rise to 8.5% by late 2009 or early 2010, according to the forecast -- further straining a job market that matched a 34-year high last month by shedding 533,000 positions.

Undergirding the joblessness will be a continued decline in real estate values, diminishing wealth as a result of the stock market crash and weaker consumer spending.

The negative forces are predicted to help change the trend in the nation's real gross domestic product from a growth of 1.3% this year to a 1.6% contraction next year. In 2010, the authors say, there might be a turnaround...

The forecast for California also appears grim. Manufacturing jobs are expected to disappear and tourism is likely to suffer from recessions overseas, the report said.

The state's unemployment rate, which is currently at 8.2%, could rise to 8.7% and remain there until 2010...

Retail, transportation, warehouse employment and temporary jobs are expected to suffer the most, while education and healthcare could hold steady...

The UCLA forecast comes two days after a similar report was released by Chapman University in Orange. A tongue-in-cheek rivalry has formed between the two schools.

James Doti, Chapman's president, chided UCLA for failing to call a recession during its forecast in June. He also trumpeted his economists for being among the first to deem the nation's economy in recession last year.

Leamer downplayed the issue in a phone interview Wednesday. "We don't particularly notice them," he said about Chapman.

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