Investor Confidence Index drops nearly 12 points in May due to higher perceived global risks

The Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 103.5, down nearly 12 points from April’s revised reading of 115.3. After a strong consensus in risk-seeking appetite last month, global investors now have a more subdued willingness to allocate to risk. Although remaining above 100, the ICI reading for May reflects a range of factors weighing on investor sentiment, including growing inflationary pressures, higher interest rates and geopolitical concerns that have undoubtedly tempered enthusiasm.

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March Investor Confidence Index rose 3.0 points from February

The Global Investor Confidence Index increased to 114.5, up 3.0 points from March's revised reading of 111.5. Investors across all regions expressed an appetite for risk, with the North American ICI increasing from 109.1 to 112.3.

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Trade deficit up 1.6 percent in November and 11.6 percent YTD from 2016

The goods and services deficit was $50.5 billion in November, up $1.6 billion from $48.9 billion in October, revised. The November increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $1.7 billion to $70.9 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $20.4 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $53.4 billion, or 11.6 percent, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased $112.7 billion or 5.6 percent. Imports increased $166.1 billion or 6.7 percent.

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BuilderBytes' MetroIntelligence Economic Update for 1/25/12

Please click here to see the edition of BuilderBytes for 1/25/12 on the Web.

In this issue of the MetroIntelligence Economic Update, I covered the following indicator:

• IMF predicts mild European recession, lower global growth for 2012

Want to advertise in the newsletter and reach over 100,000 readers? Contact National Sales Manager Nick Cosan at nkosan@penpubinc.com.

Want to make sure your company or event is included in the events calendar? Contact editor Dani Smith at dsmith@penpubinc.com.

The World in 2009

Want to get a glimpse of what economic conditions await the world in 2009? Each year, The Economist publishes such a guide, which you can find here. Some of the stories included:

• The audacity of change
• Goodbye Guantánamo
• Pick your scenario
• The bucks stop here

• National Association for the Alleviation of Credit Pandemonium
• Crime, interrupted
• An end of hubris

Right or wrong? Review our previous issue:

The Democrats’ year

• Whatever next
• Small is beautiful
• Dirty words
• No end of trouble

• The return of the gentleman banker
• Who’s a bull?
• Currency comeback
• Lessons from a crisis

Right or wrong? Review our previous issue:

Back to basics

Click here for full report.

How will the future U.S. economy look?

There's an interesting column in the L.A. Times by "Market Beat" writer Tom Petruno, in which he argues that despite the past chatter about a return to a 30's-style Depression or 70's-style "stagflation," there are some important distinctions about today's world economy which means we're even more likely to forge some new ground:

It would be handy for investors if Wall Street could agree on which decade the U.S. economy is about to relive.

But increasingly, no period from the last century seems to fill the bill...

Three months ago, there was plenty of talk about repeating the 1930s -- maybe not quite so horrific, but with many of the same destructive trends: rocketing unemployment, collapsing consumption and widespread asset devaluations.

It's still early in our housing-centered mess, but it's clear that the economy thus far has shown remarkable resilience given the ravaged state of our financial system...

If the '30s aren't the right template, how about the 1970s? Now, as then, commodity prices are surging, led by oil. That has stoked fear of inflation leaping into double digits -- the most enduring painful memory of the '70s other than leisure suits.

This week, two major companies announced price increases that had that ugly '70s feel to them.

Dow Chemical Co. -- which annually sells more than $50 billion worth of chemicals, plastics and other stuff worldwide -- said it would boost prices as much as 20% effective Sunday. Dow cited the "extraordinary rise in energy and related raw material costs."

And Eastman Kodak Co. on Friday said it would raise prices on certain products up to 20% July 1.

Just how many of those increases will stick remains to be seen, however. Because one of the cold realities of a slower economy is that pricing power is harder to come by, unless you've got something that the world just can't do without...

But there's a bigger reason to doubt that a '70s-style inflation spiral could take hold this time around: It takes two to spiral -- meaning, you need rising wages to give consumers the wherewithal to pay higher prices and create the vicious cycle of one feeding the other.

Wage growth? Now? Have you asked for a raise lately?

Unlike in the '70s, when cost-of-living increases for workers were routine, they now are "more the exception than the rule," says Paul Kasriel, an economist at Northern Trust in Chicago.

What's more, labor unions are far less powerful now than they were then, he notes, which limits the effect on wages in general from union-negotiated pay contracts.

Of course, real incomes weren't growing much in the early part of this decade, either. But consumption got a big assist in that period from the housing boom, as people cashed out some or all of their home equity. We know what happened to that trend.

Add to all of the above the downward pressure on wages of many U.S. workers from the effects of globalization (i.e., more competition all around the globe).

So this is good news? My pay isn't going up, and that will eventually help bring down inflation? It is, no doubt, a bitter pill. And at least in the near term, globalization could well make inflation worse.

America's status as a debtor nation means we have, in effect, transferred a huge amount of our wealth to the rest of the world. The slide in the dollar's value, one byproduct of that wealth transfer, means other peoples' purchasing power has risen while ours has fallen.

So even as we cut back on gasoline use, much of the rest of the world is more able to pay up for oil. That will help keep the price elevated until either global demand eases or supplies increase, or both. And higher energy costs will continue to make it difficult for formerly low-cost exporters (such as China) to keep a lid on prices of manufactured goods.

Still, in the long run, globalization should reduce the chances of sustained, '70s-style inflation by favoring innovators worldwide. The best way to keep prices in check is to make sure the best goods and services -- including ours -- can quickly find their way into the marketplace.

The flip side is that, by keeping our doors open to cash-rich foreign investors, we may help keep the value of our assets (including houses) from deflating as much as they otherwise might have, given our own financial struggles of the moment.

So it's not the '70s all over again, nor the '30s. It's a very different world, and we're making it up as we go along.