Initial unemployment claims decline 2,000 in weekly report

In the week ending November 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 238,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 242,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average.

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Mortgage applications fall 3.1 percent in latest survey; rates flat

The Market Composite Index decreased 3.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans down two percent and refinances falling eight percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged from the week prior at 4.20 percent.

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Fed's Beige Book shows continued modest growth, but home construction remains constrained

Economic activity continued to increase at a modest to moderate pace in October and mid-November, according to anecdotal reports from contacts across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. Residential real estate activity remained constrained, with most Districts reporting little growth in sales or construction. By contrast, nonresidential activity was consistent with previous reports of slight growth.

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Personal income and spending both rose in October, PCE price index up 1.6 percent year-on-year

In October, personal income increased 0.4 percent, disposable personal income (DPI) increased 0.5 percent and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.3 percent.  The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent, and is up 1.6 percent year-on-year. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent, and is up 1.4 percent year-on-year.

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Pending home sales rebounded 3.5 percent in October but still down 0.6 percent year-on-year

Pending home sales rebounded 3.5 percent in October following three straight months of diminishing activity, but were still down 0.6 percent year-on-year. All major regions except for the West saw an increase in contract signings last month.

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Third quarter GDP growth revised up to 3.3 percent in second estimate, highest rate in three years

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, for the highest rate in three years. This growth rate compares to 3.0 percent in the first estimate and 3.1 percent in the second quarter.

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State Street Global Investor Confidence Index slips slightly in November

The Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 97.1, down 1.0 point from October’s revised reading of 98.1. The minor decline in global sentiment was driven largely by a 12.0 point drop in the European ICI to 81.0. By contrast, the North American ICI rose by 3.7 points to 102.6 and the Asian ICI increased by 1.0 point to 97.5.

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Gallup: Economic Confidence Index leaps 7 points in latest survey

Americans' confidence in the economy spiked last week, with Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaging +11 for the week ending Nov. 26 -- an increase of seven points from the previous reading of +4.

Last week's gain in economic confidence was more than twice as large as the average gain. This may be a result of the improving economy which, in turn, has allowed more Americans to have the resources to enjoy the holiday week by traveling or shopping. To that point, AAA estimated that the highest number of Americans traveled this past Thanksgiving week since 2005.

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Consumer confidence extends winning steak for fifth straight month

Consumer confidence increased for a fifth consecutive month and remains at a 17-year high. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved moderately, while their expectations regarding the short-term outlook improved more so, driven primarily by optimism of further improvements in the labor market. Consumers are entering the holiday season in very high spirits and foresee the economy expanding at a healthy pace into the early months of 2018.

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Case Shiller: September home prices up 0.4 percent from August and 6.2 percent year-on-year

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.2% annual gain in September, up from 5.9% in the previous month. Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.4%.

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FHFA House Price Index up 1.4 percent in 3Q 2017 and 6.5 percent year-on-year

U.S. house prices rose 1.4 percent in the third quarter of 2017 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI).  House prices rose 6.5 percent from the third quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of 2017. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for September was up 0.3 percent from August.

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Markit Purchasing Managers Index eases slightly in November to 54.6

November data pointed to another solid increase in U.S. private sector output, supported by sustained growth in both manufacturing and services activity. At 54.6, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index was above the 50.0 no-change threshold, but eased from 55.2 in October.

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October new home sales rose to 10-year high, up 18.7 percent year-on-year

Sales of new single-family houses in October 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000. This is 6.2 percent above the revised September rate of 645,000, 18.7 percent above the October 2016 estimate of 577,000 and the highest sales rate since October 2007.

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FOMC meeting minutes reveal continued growth despite hurricane-related disruptions

The information reviewed for the October 31-November 1 meeting indicated that labor market conditions generally continued to strengthen and that real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a solid pace in the third quarter despite hurricane-related disruptions.

Al­though the effects of the recent hurricanes led to a reported decline in payroll employment in September, the unemployment rate decreased further. Retail gasoline prices jumped in the aftermath of the hurricanes, but total consumer price inflation, as measured by the 12‑month percentage change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), remained below 2 percent in September and was lower than early in the year. Survey‑based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed on balance...

The U.S. economic projection prepared by the staff for this FOMC meeting was broadly similar to the previous forecast. Real GDP was expected to rise at a solid pace in the fourth quarter of this year, boosted in part by a rebound in spending and production after the negative effects of the hurricanes in the third quarter. Payroll employment was also expected to rebound during the fourth quarter.

Beyond 2017, the forecast for real GDP growth was essentially unrevised. In particular, the staff continued to project that real GDP would expand at a modestly faster pace than potential output through 2019. The unemployment rate was projected to decline gradually over the next couple of years and to continue running below the staff's estimate of its longer-run natural rate over this period...

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

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Initial unemployment claims fall by 13,000 in most recent report

In the week ending November 18, initial unemployment claims were 239,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 239,750, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average.

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