Second quarter GDP growth jumps to 4.1 percent in first of three estimates

U.S. GDP grew by 4.1 percent in the second quarter of 2018 in the first of three estimates. Most of this jump from the 2.2 percent rate noted in the first quarter was from personal spending, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending.

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Private sector growth strong in July, but prices charged rising at record rate

U.S. private sector companies experienced a robust rise in overall business activity during July, supported by an improving economic backdrop and another sharp upturn in incoming new work. Relatively strong rates of business activity growth were recorded in both the manufacturing and service sectors.

Intense cost pressures continued in July, which resulted in a sharp and accelerated increase in average prices charged by private sector firms. The latest rise in output charges was the fastest since composite data were first collected in October 2009.

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OECD report discusses left-behind workers in economic growth

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has a new report out which discusses why so many workers in the U.S. feel left behind even with low unemployment and healthy GDP growth.

This is important for the future as the economy continues to transition to one using more technology and robotics. How can we include today's workers in the job markets of tomorrow?

Click here for the entire report: https://lnkd.in/gtPg8GQ

Chicago Fed's National Activity Index dipped to -0.15 from +.42 in April

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.15 in May from +0.42 in April.

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May Leading Economic Index growth dipped to 0.2 percent, indicating moderating trend

While May's 0.2 percent increase in the U.S. LEI was slower than in recent months, the improvements in a majority of its components offset the declines in leading indicators of labor markets and residential construction. The U.S. LEI still points to solid growth but the current trend, which is moderating, indicates that economic activity is not likely to accelerate.

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May retail sales up 0.8 percent, largest jump in six months

Retail sales jumped 0.8 percent in May, or the biggest advance since November 2017, suggesting stronger growth for 2Q 2018. Data for April was revised up to show sales rising 0.4 percent instead of the previously reported 0.2 percent gain.

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Federal Reserve beige book: moderate expansion with Dallas District speeding up

Economic activity expanded moderately in late April and early May with few shifts in the pattern of growth. The Dallas District was an exception, where overall economic activity sped up to a solid pace:

• Manufacturing shifted into higher gear with more than half of the Districts reporting a pickup in industrial activity and a third of the Districts classifying activity as "strong." Fabricated metals, heavy industrial machinery, and electronics equipment were noted as areas of strength.  Rising goods production led to higher freight volumes for transportation firms.
• By contrast, consumer spending was soft. Nonauto retail sales growth moderated somewhat and auto sales were flat, although there was considerable variation by District and vehicle type.
• In banking, demand for loans ticked higher and banks reported that increased competition had led to higher deposit rates. Delinquency rates were mostly stable at low levels.
• Homebuilding and home sales increased modestly, on net, and nonresidential construction continued at a moderate pace.
• Contacts noted some concern about the uncertainty of international trade policy. Still, outlooks for near term growth were generally upbeat.

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First quarter GDP growth revised down to 2.2 percent in second estimate

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the advance estimate, the increase was 2.3 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 2.9 percent.

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March Leading Economic Index up 0.3 percent, but labor market bears watching

The U.S. LEI increased 0.3 percent in March, and while the monthly gain is slower than in previous months, its six-month growth rate increased further and points to continued solid growth in the U.S. economy for the rest of the year.  However, labor market components made negative contributions in March and bear watching in the near future.

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Third quarter GDP rose at 3.2 percent in third and final estimate

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2017 according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. With this third estimate for the third quarter, personal consumption expenditures increased less than previously estimated, but the general picture of economic growth remains the same.

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Chicago Fed's National Activity Index improved strongly in September

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up to +0.17 in September from -0.37 in August. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3,was unchanged at -0.16 in September.

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Fed's September Beige Book: Continued overall growth even with hurricane impacts

Reports from all 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity increased in September through early October, with the pace of growth split between modest and moderate. Residential construction continued to increase, and growth in commercial construction was up slightly on balance. Low home inventory levels continued to constrain residential sales in many areas, while nonresidential real estate activity increased slightly overall.

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Second quarter GDP growth rises to 3.0 percent in second estimate

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2017 according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The second GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6 percent.

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Service sector index dipped 3.5 points in July to 53.9

The NMI® registered 53.9 percent, which is 3.5 percentage points lower than the June reading of 57.4 percent. The majority of respondents’ comments were mostly positive about business conditions and the state of the economy.

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Manufacturing sector index dipped 1.5 points in July to 56.3

The July PMI® registered 56.3 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the June reading of 57.8 percent. Comments from the panel generally reflect expanding business conditions, with new orders, production, employment, backlog and exports all growing in July compared to June.

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June retail sales fell 0.2 percent

June retail sales fell 0.2 percent, weighed down by declines in receipts at service stations, clothing stores and supermarkets. Americans also cut back on spending at restaurants and bars, as well as on hobbies. This decline, the second in two months, could temper expectations of strong acceleration in economic growth in the second quarter.

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June Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.9 points, little euphoria for rest of 2017

The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 0.9 points to 103.6, but sustained the surge in optimism that started the day after the election. The Index peaked at 105.9 in January and has dropped 2.3 points to date, no doubt in part due to the mess in Washington, D.C.

Progress is being made, but poorly communicated, and the biggest issues, healthcare and tax reform remain stuck in the bowels of Washington politics. Economic growth in the first half of this year will be about the same as we have experienced for the past three or four years, no real progress. There isn’t much euphoria in the outlook for the second half of the year.

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Consumer credit use expanded in May at fastest rate in seven months

Consumer credit expanded in May at 5.8 percent, or the fastest rate in seven months.  This could be a sign that strong levels of confidence will lead to growth in consumption.The monthly growth of consumer credit often seesaws, but the first quarter’s 4.8% growth was the slowest quarterly expansion in more than six years.

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New York Fed: Manufacturing activity rebounds strongly in June

Business activity rebounded strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index shot up twenty-one points to 19.8, its highest level in more than two years.

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Philadelphia Fed: Manufacturing activity growth dips in June

Regional manufacturing continues to expand, according to results from the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The diffusion index for general activity fell from its reading in May but remained positive and continued to reflect growth. Although many of the future indicators also declined, firms continue to expect growth over the next six months. About one-third of the firms expect to add to their payrolls through the end of the year.

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