SoCal housing market improves in December

Owing to a combination of low interest rates and a tax credit that was extended until April, housing sales in Southern California showed additional strength in December. But is this the sign of a genuine rebound based on market fundamentals or a temporary blip riding on the training wheels of federal stimulus? From an L.A. Times story:

Rock-bottom interest rates and stronger sales in higher-priced neighborhoods helped Southern California's housing market post robust gains in the typically sleepy month of December, new data show, and experts say the momentum is continuing -- ushering in an early start to the spring home-buying season.

The median price paid for a Southland home rose 4% to $289,000 last month from December 2008, the first time the closely watched figure has posted a year-over-year gain since the region's real estate market took a nose dive 2 1/2 years ago, according to data released Tuesday by MDA DataQuick, a San Diego real estate research firm.

Rebounding home prices could help the Southern California economy recover from its slump, as a stronger housing market could lead to hiring on construction sites and in real estate sales, title and escrow offices, said Esmael Adibi, director of Chapman University's A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research.

"The worst is behind us for sure," he said. "For the economy, the implication is, at least on the residential side, we don't expect more layoffs, and you might actually see some pickup in employment."...

One thing driving sales is the April 30 expiration of tax credits for home buyers. First-time home buyers can get up to $8,000 in credit on their federal income taxes, and current homeowners can qualify for up to $6,500.

Low mortgage rates are also a factor. Thirty-year fixed-rate loans were below 5% through most of December and haven't risen much.

The role of the federal government in the housing market remains key. Some experts worry that once certain policies and programs wind down -- among them low interest rates, tax incentives for buyers and an increased accessibility of mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration -- the housing market could falter.

Christopher Thornberg, principal of Beacon Economics, predicts home prices will drop once those policies and programs expire.

"The bounce in the housing market is due to government policy, not due to fundamentals," he said. "None of these programs fix the underlying problem. They only delay the solution -- they only delay the healing process."...

Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, said buyers have sensed more security in Southern California's real estate market in recent months and have begun to get off the fence.

"We are getting a little bit of what we had six or seven years ago, where people are worried if they don't get in now they are going to miss out on an opportunity," Green said. "In a decent neighborhood, in the half-a-million-dollar range, we are back to lots of offers."

SoCal home prices now at $247,000 as sales rise

The latest data from Dataquick for the month of April is out, and prices fell from $250,000 to $247,000 as sales rose by over 31% from the same month of April. Yet the story is certainly not the same for the various counties here, with much of the pricing decline due to foreclosures in the Inland Empire. For now, sales in the coastal markets -- where owners generally have more staying power to wait for prices to stabilize -- remain low. From an L.A. Times story:

Southern California's median home price in April was $247,000, down slightly from the previous month, a real estate research firm reported today.

The price drop -- a decline of 51% from the 2007 peak -- came after three months in which the median price had held steady at $250,000, according to the data from San Diego-based MDA DataQuick. The brief respite from price declines had raised hopes the housing market may have been close to its bottom.

Last month's price drop, however, drove home purchases up. The total of 20,514 homes sold in six Southland counties last month was up 5.2% from March and up 31.4% from a year ago, DataQuick reported.

The rise in home sales is an important step to housing market recovery, said UC Irvine economist Kerry Vandell, because the sales help to clear the surplus of homes -- many vacant -- still flooding the market...

Previously foreclosed homes -- many of them deeply discounted -- accounted for 54% of the sales total. April was the seventh consecutive month in which the majority of homes sold in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura counties had been foreclosed.

Sales were at record or near-record levels in foreclosure-heavy inland areas. Higher-priced coastal areas, including Malibu, Pacific Palisades, the Palos Verdes Peninsula and Manhattan Beach, as well as Beverly Hills, saw record or near-record lows in sales.

A tale of two markets is clear in Southern California, with low-priced areas appearing close to recovery, while wealthier areas face greater uncertainty as sales languish amid an economic downturn...

Wealthier areas may face new troubles because "we still face two big threats to price stability: layoffs, which can cause foreclosures across the home price spectrum, and possibly a new round of foreclosures triggered by defaults on 'option ARM' and 'stated income' loans used in mid- to high-end markets," Walsh said.

San Bernardino County showed the sharpest price decline in April, with its median price falling 48% from a year ago, to $138,500. Riverside County's median price of $180,000 was a 39% decline. Los Angeles County prices were down 31% to a median of $300,000. Orange County's median price was down 24% to $380,000. Ventura County's median of $340,000 was down 24% from April last year and San Diego's median of $290,000 was down 28% from a year ago...

The typical monthly mortgage payment that Southern California buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,030 last month, down from $1,074 the previous month, and down from $1,831 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 52.9% below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 61.4% below the current cycle's peak in July 2007.