The Housing Chronicles Blog: Home price declines flattening, but not evenly

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Home price declines flattening, but not evenly

Although the S&P/Case-Shiller national index is showing a flattening in the pace of price declines for the third month in a row, for various price ranges and different cities, the pain continues or is expected in the future. I'll be interviewing Dr. Shiller tomorrow at 12 noon (Pacific time) for my Housing Chronicles show on, and I'm sure I'll be asking his opinion on these differences. From an L.A. Times story:

Home prices in 20 metropolitan areas were down 18% in April compared to the same month the previous year, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.

In the Los Angeles area, which includes Orange County, April home prices fell 21% from the previous year.

Los Angeles County and Orange County prices in April were down 42% from their 2006 peak, the index shows. The 20-city index was down 33% from its 2006 peak.

The Case-Shiller index had posted record year-over-year declines from October 2007 to January of this year. April's index was the third straight month in which the pace of price declines slowed slightly...

While Los Angeles area price declines have slowed, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, New York, Portland and Seattle posted record year-over-year declines in April.

The worst year-over-year declines in April were in Phoenix (35%), Las Vegas (32%) and San Francisco (28%).

Los Angeles area price declines have varied substantially by price segments. The lowest-priced third of homes sold in April is down 54% in price from its peak, according to Case-Shiller; the middle third was down 42%; and the most-expensive third of homes sold was down 31%.

The lowest-priced homes in the Los Angeles area had more room to fall - they had also shown the largest price increases during the real estate bubble, with prices in that segment inflated by subprime lending...

Nontheless, because the mid-level and upper-price tiers depend largely on buyers moving equity from the entry-level tier, it's only a matter of time before we see price declines even out, and that process is already starting in certain markets.

1 comment:

Brandon Green said...

It's not too surprising that the flattening isn't even across the board.