State of the Rental Market: Growth is Moderating but Long-Term Prospects Very Favorable

While it’s certainly no secret that the multi-family sector has been on a roll over the past few years, there have been some recent signs that its growth trajectory will continue to moderate this year. 

Nonetheless, with an economic expansion in its seventh year and an average of one million new renter households being formed over the past five years, these economic tailwinds should continue to support this sector over the near term. The long-term prognosis is even better, with a recent study concluding a need for 4.6 million new apartments between now and 2030.

For now, overall tenant demand remains strong, especially as more millennials continue to form new households after being delayed due to the Great Recession and paying off student loan debt. Nationally, the homeownership rate fell to a 51-year low of 63 percent last year, and is expected to remain around this level for at least the rest of the year.

Construction of new apartments is also expected to peak this year, especially as over-supply in some high-growth markets is beginning to impact both vacancy rates and rent growth. Mindful of this trend, construction lenders are also being more discreet, critically assessing the experience of developers, double-checking projected returns while acknowledging lower growth in operating income.

In addition, if government proposals for increased infrastructure spending see the light of day, this could mean increased competition for both the materials and labor required for more multi-family supply.

According to recent figures from brokerage Marcus & Millichap, most of the softening is beginning to occur for Class A buildings, both due to an increase in new product as well as historically weak absorption during the fourth quarter of 2016 being pushed into 2017. Nationally, this meant a large bump in Class A vacancy rates to over 6.5 percent. Yet instead of lowering asking rents to fill vacant units, many owners are betting that the strong spring and summer leasing season will mop up the excess supply.

For Class B properties, a slight rise in vacancies was often due to renters opting to make the leap to higher-quality apartments, especially in regions such as the South where the price difference between the two classes is the smallest.  Not surprisingly, the vacancy rate for Class C properties remains the lowest due to the strong demand for affordable housing.

Both Axiometrics and Yardi Matrix -- which regularly survey apartment communities across the country each month – have shown a similar softening in both rent growth and occupancy rates.  According to Axiometrics, although its surveyed properties had rebounded to the benchmark occupancy rate of 95 percent by May 2017, annual effective rent growth has stayed within a fairly narrow band of 2.0 to 2.2 percent over the past six months.

Yardi Matrix, however, showed an annual overall rental rate increase of 1.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in May 2017, down sharply from the 5.3 percent noted a year ago even though it reported an overall occupancy rate of 94.8 percent for April.

As Marcus & Millichap similarly found, this is largely due to a temporary over-supply in Yardi’s “Lifestyle” class, which caters to households who prefer to rent versus owning, and has resulted in flat growth. Meanwhile, low supply and strong demand for “Renter by Necessity” units helped propel their average rents by 2.6 percent over the same time period.

Due to this softening, as well as higher borrowing costs and proposed changes to fiscal policy and the tax code – including a possible end to the popular 1031 tax exchange program – investors have recently pulled back. Preliminary estimates for first quarter 2017 sales suggest a decline of 15 to 20 percent from the same period of 2016, although greater clarity on these policy changes would certainly lead to a rebound in investor interest.

In the longer term, a combination of delayed marriages, an aging population and continued legal immigration will continue to put increasing pressure on new apartment supply, but it’s not just the millennials filling these units. It’s also Baby Boomers and other empty-nesters over 45 who accounted for over half of new renter households over the last decade in search of the flexibility and convenience of apartment living.

With an annual projected demand of 325,000 new units per year through 2030 and an aging housing stock increasingly in need of renovations, there should be very favorable terms for well-financed investors, especially in high-cost and high-growth areas throughout the West and the South.

More Builders Becoming Landlords to Improve Cash Flow

Over the last few years since the end of the housing boom and bust, the pendulum which used to favor single-family home starts has been swinging towards multi-family ones. Although the reasons for this are varied -- including increased demand in urban markets, tougher mortgage approval guidelines, and Millennials contending with weak wage growth and student loans -- the general idea was that this swing was cyclical, and that demand for the standard single-family home for purchase would eventually rebound.  The problem is that it hasn’t really worked out that way -- at least not in a way that mimics historical norms.

According to recent U.S. Census data, in 2014 just under 65 percent of new home starts were for the traditional single-family home, with the balance mostly comprised of multi-family projects with five or more units. And yet as recently as 2009, single-family starts stood at 80 percent versus just under 18 percent for larger multi-family developments, which means that the share of multi-family housing starts nearly doubled in just five years.

So if the share of new, single-family home starts is not returning to normal as originally planned, how are builders coping in this strange, new world? For some, such as Lennar and Toll Brothers, by joining it.

In March of this year, Lennar introduced an 80-unit pilot program of single-family homes for rent near the city of Reno, Nevada in the community of Sparks. Located in the 640-acre Pioneer Meadows master-planned community complete with biking and hiking trails, the Frontera community offers six plans ranging in size from 1210 to 2182 square feet of living space, two to four bedrooms and attached two-car garages. Other features include stainless steel appliances and granite countertops in the kitchen, full-size washers and dryers, walk-in closets for the master suite, wood-style window blinds and even regular lawn maintenance.

Currently starting from $1,574 to $2,049 per month (or $.93 to $1.30 per square foot) plus premiums ranging up to $150, these homes are intended to provide a middle ground for tenants who don’t want to rent an older single-family home or traditional apartment, yet are unwilling or unable to purchase a similar home. Yet such tenants will certainly pay a premium over traditional apartments, with similarly sized units at The Trails at Pioneer Meadows starting at $1,242 to $1,384 for 1250 to 1321 square feet, or $.98 to $1.08 per square foot.

Still, Lennar is fortunate in that it has a back-up plan for this pilot program: If they can’t rent them out, they can simply sell them the usual way. In addition, given the complexities managing a community of single-family versus multi-family homes, it’s hard to predict how important this business will be to the company’s bottom line, especially when it already has a pipeline of 20,000 apartments worth over $5.5 billion yet to be built.

Luxury home builder Toll Brothers has taken a different route, opting to focus more on providing multi-family “Apartment Living” and “Campus Living” branded rentals in the metro Boston to metro Washington, D.C. corridor. Including a mix of four-story suburban apartments, transit-oriented units as well as a 38-story high-rise building in Jersey City (with more towers planned), what these communities share in common is a heavy emphasis on resort-style amenities, community events and concierge services coupled with the discretionary build quality for which the company is famous. So far the company is managing 1,141 rental apartments and developing another 1,920 units, and is eying further expansion to Boston, Miami and San Francisco.

However, for those builders not yet ready to dip a toe into the rental market, there are other options. Starwood Waypoint, a REIT which as of the second quarter of 2015 owned over 17,500 single-family homes and reported a stabilized occupancy of nearly 97 percent, has reportedly worked with a dozen builders to help them offload their slowest-selling plans or the final few homes in a community.

Finally, other options include the rent-to-own programs offered by companies such as Home Partners of America. Although such homes rent and sell for a premium versus local comps, the plan is to allow tenants to try out a home before locking in a down payment, with the caveat being that the longer they wait to buy, the higher the price will be.

On the flip side, knowing what the price will be even five years in the future can help today’s tenants work towards becoming a buyer tomorrow.