Redfin: New homes accounted for 16.4 percent of all single-family homes for sale in 4Q 2017

New construction homes in the fourth quarter of 2017 accounted for 16.4 percent of all single-family homes for sale, the highest level since Redfin began tracking this data in 2012, up from from 14.2 a year earlier. This is a needed sign of progress in a housing market plagued by short supply.

The median price of new single-family homes that sold last quarter was $377,800, up 1.6 percent year over year. Compared with existing homes, new construction sold at an average premium of $86,400 in the fourth quarter.  At the same time, existing home prices increased 7.3 percent year over year.

READ MORE

4Q 2017 GDP growth dips to 2.5 percent in second of three estimates

According to the "second" estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, down slightly from the initial estimate of 2.6 percent. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

READ MORE

January pending home sales fell to lowest level since October 2014

The Pending Home Sales Index fell 4.7 percent to 104.6 in January from a downwardly revised 109.8 in December 2017. After last month's retreat, the index is now 3.8 percent below a year ago and at its lowest level since October 2014 (104.1).The decline was attributed to low supply levels and rising interest rates.

READ MORE

Non-Employment Index edges down to 7.9 percent in February

The Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index (NEI) was 7.9 percent in January 2018, edging down from December 2017. It has declined by 0.4 percentage points since January 2017. The NEI including workers who are part time for economic reasons (PTER) was 8.9 percent in January 2018, unchanged compared to the previous month. That index has declined by 0.6 percentage points since January 2017.

READ MORE

Durable goods orders fell 3.7 percent in January, mostly due to volatile aircraft sector

Durable-goods order fell by a sharp 3.7% in January — the largest decline since last summer — mostly due to a sharp drop in contracts for passenger planes. Without including planes and cars, orders fell a much smaller 0.3%. However, a key measure of business investment fell for a second straight month, which has not happened since early 2016.

READ MORE

FHFA HPI: Home prices up 1.6 percent in 4Q 2017 and 6.7 percent year-on-year

FHFA House Price Index U.S. house prices rose 0.3 percent in December, 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, and 6.7 percent between the fourth quarters of 2016 and 2017.

READ MORE

Case-Shiller: December home prices up 0.7 percent from November and 6.3 percent year-on-year

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 6.3% annual gain in December, up from 6.1% in the previous month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.7% month-over-month increase in December.

READ MORE

February consumer confidence rises to highest level since late 2000

Consumer confidence improved to its highest level since November 2000 after a modest increase in January. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was more favorable this month, with the labor force the main driver. Despite the recent stock market volatility, consumers expressed greater optimism about short-term prospects for business and labor market conditions, as well as their financial prospects. Overall, consumers remain quite confident that the economy will continue expanding at a strong pace in the months ahead.

READ MORE

Southern California home prices in January rose at their fastest pace in 44 months

From the L.A. Times:

Home prices in Southern California jumped 11.4% in January — the largest year-over-year gain in 44 months as the region's already sizzling housing market got even hotter.

The double-digit rise in the median price put it at $507,000, which was lower than December's peak of $509,500 when the six-county region surpassed bubble-era highs of $505,000 in 2007, according to a report out Tuesday by research firm CoreLogic.

Affordability drives everything in the Inland Empire," said analyst Patrick Duffy, principal of MetroIntelligence Real Estate Advisors...And while mortgage rates remain historically low at about 4.5% for a 30-year fixed loan, they are ticking up and the increases may be impelling some buyers to sign on the dotted line, Duffy said..."I'll bet some people on the fence are saying 'I am going to pull that trigger,'" he said. "Here's your chance to jump before prices go higher."

READ MORE

January Chicago Fed National Activity Index slips two points to +0.12

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked down to +0.12 in January from +0.14 in December. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.17 in January from +0.43 in December.

READ MORE

January new home sales down 7.8 percent from December and 1.0 percent year-on-year

Sales of new single-family houses in January 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000. This is down 7.8 percent from December and 1.0 percent year-on-year.  It is also the lowest rate since last August, with the decline potentially due to a combination of steeper prices, higher interest rates and less generous write-offs from tax reform enacted at the beginning of 2018.  New home inventory rose to a four-year high.

However, a caveat is important here:  Due to the relatively large margin of error given by the Census Bureau for these numbers (19.0 percent from December and 16.4 percent year-on-year), it's also important to review other sources for updates on the housing market.  The Bureau will also often update its estimates as more (and better) information comes in.

READ MORE

Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate more rate hikes ahead in 2018

A majority of participants noted that a stronger outlook for economic growth raised the likelihood that further gradual policy firming would be appropriate. Almost all participants saw inflation moving up to the Fed's 2 percent inflation goal over the medium term as growth remained above trend and the labor market stayed strong.

READ MORE

Initial unemployment claims fall 7,000 in latest report

In the week ending February 17, initial unemployment claims were 222,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average.

READ MORE

Mortgage applications decline 6.6 percent as rates continue to rise

The Market Composite Index decreased 6.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans down 6.0 percent and refinances falling 7.0 percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to its highest level since January 2014, 4.64 percent.

READ MORE

February Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rises to second-highest level since March 2002

Americans' outlook for the U.S. economy improved in February to 54.5, the second-highest level since March 2002, indicating lower taxes are resonating.  The weekly comfort index was little changed at 56.6, falling from 57.0 the previous week.

READ MORE