Orange County Update & Forecast

According to the latest data from Hanley Wood (and included in my presentation at the BIS '09 "Town Square", which you can find here), new home sales in Orange County in Sep. 2009 were the same as in 2008, which could mean that we've hit bottom in new home sales for this area. Still, YTD sales are down by 23% to 1,242 units.

Absorption, although averaging a still-anemic 1.42 sales per month, are up by 37% over Sep. of 2008, and YTD they're running at 1.63 per project. Can rates remain in the low double digits, and median prices are starting to rebound, hitting $584,000 for September and $521,000 for 2009 YTD. Value ratios, however, continue to fall, declining by 6.5% to $276 per square foot.

At current sales rates, the total number of units in current and future phases would take nearly 3 years to sell, although this total is down by 20% from the same time of 2008. The bigger story, however, is for standing inventory, which although rising by 9% to 156 units, would take just 1.44 months to sell. See below for a summary table of stats for Orange County:

Category	9/09	% YOY	2009 YTD	% YOY
Net Sales	108	0%	1,242	-23.4%
Absorption	1.42	36.8%	1.63	1.2%
Can. Rate	11.5%	D-18.2%	12.5%	D-13.7%
Median Price	$584k	23.5%	$521k	4.2%
SFD Price	$783k	-10.7%	$808k	-9.1%
Median $/SF	$276	-6.5%	$285	-4.7%
SFD $/SF	$267	-10.7%	$280	-7.8%
Inventory	3,563	-20.5%	-	-
Months Inv.	32.99	D-41.5	-	-
Standing Inv.	156	9.1%	-	-
Months SI	1.44	U-1.32	-	-

Looking ahead to 2010, population growth should come in at 0.9%, with the unemployment rate continued to rise to nearly 10% as employers continue to shed jobs. Still, the decline in non-farm employment of 2% will be less than half of what it's expected to total in 2009, or -4.8%.

Housing permits countywide should come in at just under 1,300 units in 2009, rising to 1,375 in 2010. New home sales are estimate to total 1,543 for 2009, with a median single-family home price of $715,000. These forecasts are summarized in the table below:

Category	2009	2010
Population	1.0%	0.9%
Non-Farm Employment	1,413m	1,384m
Annual Change NFE	-4.8%	-2.0%
Unemployment Rate	8.8%	9.7%
Personal Income	-3.5%	-0.1%
Housing Permits	1,295	1,375
Non-Res. Permits	$867m	$830m
Ann. New Home Sales	1,543	-
New SF Home Price	$715k	-