Tuesday, June 10, 2008

June 6th edition of BuilderBytes out


From the latest edition of BuilderBytes, a bi-monthly newsletter emailed by Peninsula Publishing to nearly 100,000 subscribers:

How Green Are America’s Top Home Builders?
reuters.com
The environmental and sustainable practices of the United States' largest publicly traded homebuilders were recently ranked in a major new report by the mutual fund company Calvert, one of the nation's leaders in the field of sustainable and responsible investing. Calvert designed the research into homebuilder sustainability with support from the Boston College Institute for Responsible Investment.
www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS119932+05-May-2008+PRN20080505

USGBC Announces Recipients of Excellence in Green Building Curriculum
buildingonline.com
Recognition Awards & Incentive Grants
The U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) has awarded twelve programs its inaugural Excellence in Green Building Curriculum Recognition Awards and Incentive Grants. The awards and grants program is a central component of USGBC's commitment to identify and disseminate innovative green build curricula to educators across the country.
http://www.buildingonline.com/news/viewnews.pl?id=7082&subcategory=208

Green Home Building Market Has "Tipped" and Is Expected to Double by 2012,

According to New Report from McGraw-Hill Construction
McGraw-Hill Construction
McGraw-Hill Construction, a part of The McGraw-Hill Companies, today presented the findings of its latest market research investigating “green” home building, focusing on changes in green building activity between 2001 and 2007; the impact of the down market on green home building; opinions and preferences of builders for green materials and processes, and triggers and obstacles affecting green building expansion.
http://www.construction.com/AboutUs/2008/0512pr.asp

The Builder and Developer magazine 2008 Resource Directory and Buyer's Guide has been released

Use the guide online to find a product or service, get in touch with a builder directly, get the contact information for a state or government agency or trade association or review hundreds of the latest new innovative homebuilding products. You can also peruse the advertisers web sites and send e-mails to the by lines authors directly.

There are over 2,000 live links and industry listings making this a remarkable industry resource for your ongoing use. Bookmark the link or paste it into your browser.

Hard copies of the Buyer's Guide are available directly from Peninsula Publishing at 949.378.9997 or by contacting advertising@penpubinc.com


Behind the LandSource bankruptcy

Confused about the recent LandSource bankruptcy in California? Here's a good synopsis from BuilderOnline.com:

Large California property developer LandSource Communities Development LLC announced late Sunday that it had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The entity is structured as a joint venture between Lennar and LNR Property Corp., each of which have a 16% stake, and MW Housing Partners, which holds a 68% stake.

Court documents indicate that the company has between 5,001 and 10,000 debtors and that both assets and liabilities exceed $1 billion.

LandSource had been diligently attempting to restructure a $1.24 billion debtload for months. According to the company, it received a default notice on April 22 after missing a payment when a decline in the assessed value of its Southern California land holding triggered an additional charge. ..

LandSource is a holding company that was jointly owned by Lennar and LNR prior to February 2007. Early last year, MW Housing Partners, which is funded by the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS), was brought in as a third partner, infusing both Lennar and LNR with much needed cash--nearly $700 million each...

In return, MW Housing expected to gain access to profits from LandSource, whose principal holding is one of the biggest remaining entitled pieces of land in Los Angeles County. The Newhall Land and Farming Co. holds 15,000 acres in the Santa Clarita Valley 30 miles north of L.A., which includes 700 acres of commercial land as well as 23,000 home sites. The company also owns properties in Arizona, Florida, Texas, and New Jersey.

The deal was impressive at the time, and Lennar was lauded for squeezing $1.3 billion in cash out of land during a period when almost nobody was buying. Many pointed to the deal as proof that buildable land in desirable locations would maintain a strong value amid a slowing market and that motivated partners and creative financing could overcome formidable obstacles.

However, financial success of LandSource was heavily dependent on Lennar’s ability to buy lots at the predetermined price and schedule. As the market continued to slow and land values plummeted, Lennar and other builders found no economic viability in their projected takedown arrangements. As Lennar walked away from option agreements that no longer made sense, the cash flow coffers of the JV dried up and the debt was unable to be serviced...

“Bankruptcy of this JV highlights the conundrum Lennar and other [builders] face with JVs while also validating some of the fears of investors regarding JV risk,” stated Pali Capital analyst Stephen East in a note to investors this morning. “The flip side of those problems is the recognition that Lennar has the constitution to walk away from even the most attractive of land parcels.”

”LandSource believes Chapter 11 provides the most effective means for the partnership to preserve the value of its business, meet post-petition obligations, and maintain constituents’ confidence while it works with creditors to achieve a long-term restructuring,” said spokesperson Tamara Taylor.

The company stated that it “expects not only to survive the current real estate downturn and credit crunch, but to flourish once the market stabilizes.” Though there are no assurances, some speculate that bankruptcy protection could serve as a shelter for the assets, which will eventually begin to recover value. If the JV remains in bankruptcy long enough, a change in the market could potentially create a scenario where the parties might reengage in an effort to retain ownership and control.

Option ARMs expected to unleash the next wave of defaults

At first glance, the Option ARM loan seems like a great product, but only if it's used responsibly. In the past, it was tapped by astute borrowers who had a varied income (such as salespeople and the self-employed), who could elect to pay a minimum amount during some months (like on a credit card) but then make up for the shortfall when more money was available. What it wasn't intended for was as a gambit in which borrowers pay only the minimal amount and hope to refinance as housing prices rose (as least not officially). But brokers really pushed these loans, as they paid far higher commission than the traditional 30-year fixed variety.

According to an article in Business Week, the the next housing crisis -- and wave of foreclosures to hit the market -- will be the result of Option ARMs re-setting, either as the result of higher interest rates or because the borrower, through negative amortization, has added so much to the loan balance that it's triggered a re-set to a fully amortizing loan:

With the subprime mortgage crisis already crippling the U.S. economy, some experts are warning that the next wave of foreclosures will begin accelerating in April, 2009. What that means is that hundreds of thousands of borrowers who took out so-called option adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) will begin to see their monthly payments skyrocket as they reset. About a million borrowers have option ARMs, but only a fraction have already fallen due.

That was the catch to option ARMs; borrowers were offered low initial payments that would recast higher after several years. Many home buyers thought they could resell their homes before their payments increased. But instead, many of them got trapped. According to Credit Suisse (CS), monthly option recasts are expected to accelerate starting in April, 2009, from $5 billion to a peak of about $10 billion in January, 2010. Some of these loans have already started to recast. About 13% of option ARMs that were issued in 2006 were delinquent by 60 days by the time they were 18 months old, Credit Suisse said...

Among the states expected to be worst-hit is already battered California. Today, outstanding option ARM loans in the U.S. total about $500 billion, about 60% of which were sold to California homeowners, according to Credit Suisse. Option ARMs were especially popular in the state, where they were heavily marketed during the boom by such companies as Countrywide Financial (CFC) in Calabasas, Calif.; Washington Mutual (WM) in Seattle; and Wachovia (WB) in Charlotte, N.C. Moreover, on top of their ARMs, many homeowners also refinanced their homes, driving themselves even deeper into a debt they thought they could escape by flipping their homes.

But California won't be alone. Homeowners are also frighteningly vulnerable in states such as Arizona, Florida, New Jersey, and others...

The option ARM loan defaults could accelerate next year even if subprime defaults subside, said Chandrajit Bhattacharya, vice-president and mortgage strategist at Credit Suisse Securities. He said California will see the bulk of the option ARM foreclosures and the rest will be spread out across the country...

Option ARMs, which were originally designed for self-employed people with fluctuating incomes, gained popularity with other workers during the peak of the real estate boom in 2004, when rapidly rising home values would have otherwise kept many buyers out of the market.

The loans, which were generally given to borrowers with better-than-subprime credit, give homeowners the option of making a minimum monthly payment, which covers none of the principal and only a portion of the interest, the rest of which is added to the loan balance. With years of unpaid interest accumulating and house prices falling, some homeowners have seen their equity disappear and now owe even more than their initial loan balance.

The loans automatically recast after five years, but many will recast sooner as loan balances hit specific principal caps—typically between 110% and 125% of the initial loan amount. Many of these loans are expected to recast within the next two years, meaning that borrowers' monthly payments will swell to include both principal and interest...

William Purdy, a lawyer at Simmons & Purdy in Soquel, Calif., a firm that specializes in home refinance issues, said some borrowers with option ARMs are defaulting before the loans recast because they couldn't afford even marginal increases in the minimum payments.

"It's a ticking time bomb inside your house that you can't get rid of," Purdy said. "They can try to slow down the inevitable, but sooner or later their loan is going to cap. …This year is going to be a blood bath. Next year, we'll start out just about the same."...

But options are available—even if refinancing isn't possible. Lenders have been working with borrowers to reduce loan amounts and interest rates and, in some cases, simply accept the deed in lieu of foreclosure.

The Mortgage Bankers Assn. says it appears that a growing number of homeowners are avoiding foreclosure by getting help from the Hope Now hotline (888 995-HOPE), a mortgage-counseling phone line backed by lenders and the federal government that gets 4,000 calls a day. Hotline counselors help borrowers negotiate with banks and offer advice on refinancing options. Even though foreclosure rates are rising in California and Florida, they've slowed elsewhere, the bankers association said.

Some callers to the hotline have complained about long wait times, but the group says it has beefed up its counseling staff and now gets to calls quickly.

Other option ARM borrowers could benefit from government plans now in the works. A bill approved by the House in May would allow the Federal Housing Administration to guarantee up to $300 billion in new loans to help homeowners facing foreclosure. Borrowers could get more affordable loans worth no more than 90% of the home's value, meaning that participating lenders would have to take a significant loss on the loan. The bill was sponsored by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.). Senate Banking Chairman Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.) has a similar measure....

Many California homeowners, including some with $2 million homes, are simply making their minimum payment, waiting for the recast. Then they plan to walk away, even if it damages their credit, Bedard said.

Zillow banned in Arizona?

According to the social networking blog Mashable.com, Zillow has been banned from operating in Arizona. The cease and desist order claims that Zillow shouldn't be offering up estimates of property values -- called 'zestimates' -- unless it has registered with the state as a certified appraiser:

The state of Arizona has issued a cease and desist to Zillow, citing that Zillow needs to be a certified appraiser in order to offer up the information the site is known for. Zillow gets their information from public documents and offers property estimates accordingly. Many in the real estate industry, including Realtors and the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, have disliked Zillow from the start, insisting that the estimates provided is often incorrect. Zillow obviously throws a wrench in many Realtor’s plans, as they grant access to information that the average home buyer or seller would not look up for themselves. Relying on the experts is how many Realtors thrive, so tools that aim to level the disparity of knowledge are seen as bad; in this case, illegal.

Zillow has been growing since its onset, and they’ve recently added some social networking components to help users further understand the market from first hand accounts of other users. Others looking to make neighborhood knowledge more accessible to the public are YourStreet and StreetAdvisor.

Gov't Board rejects Grand Avenue project delay

The developers of the Grand Avenue project, The Related Companies, which had sought another 8-month delay for the $3 billion project in downtown Los Angeles, were recently rejected by the city-county government board overseeing the project and given a much shorter reprieve to August 15th. Expected to redefine the area surrounding downtown's Music Center and Disney Hall, apparently the board wants to explore its other options, including re-bidding the project out to another developer and scaling down the plans even though it hand-picked Related four years ago, in part due to its great success with the Time Warner headquarters near New York's Columbus Circle. So could this be a case of government not understanding economics and hoping for a magic wand solution? Possibly. Wouldn't it be better to delay the entire project and build it as planned rather than jump-start something boring? From an L.A. Times story:

The government board overseeing the $3-billion Grand Avenue project on Monday unexpectedly rejected the developer's request for an eight-month delay to begin construction on the development across from the Walt Disney Concert Hall. While both sides said they remain optimistic that the sprawling downtown Los Angeles development is on track, the vote is the strongest sign yet that government officials are growing concerned over repeated delays and hope to keep a tight rein on the developer they handpicked for the project almost four years ago.

Instead of approving developer Related Cos.' requested delay until February, the joint powers authority approved a motion by Los Angeles County Chief Executive William T. Fujioka giving the developer until Aug. 15. That's a much shorter period than expected, though one that could be extended when the authority -- made up of city and county officials -- meets in July...

...one county supervisor, Michael Antonovich, suggested that the Frank Gehry-designed project be scaled back because of real estate market conditions. "Given the stark economic climate," said Paul Novak, a planning deputy for Antonovich, "our best approach may be less of a 'grand' vision than the plan previously approved by the county and the city."

Novak suggested that the joint powers authority should revisit various components of the project, including the high-end retail stores and the five-star hotel.
Grand Avenue is the linchpin in the effort to revitalize downtown L.A. and to bring in more affluent residents and retailers.

The development would rise around some of the city's landmark cultural institutions, including Disney Hall, the Museum of Contemporary Art and the Music Center.
Related California President Bill Witte said after the meeting that his company would "just continue to work with the committee." The Grand Avenue project's first phase -- which includes a shopping center, hotel and two residential towers -- was once slated to be completed in 2009. But that date was shifted to 2011.

Now, Related wants to push the opening to 2012.
Witte has said the delay in beginning construction would allow Related to finalize thousands of pages of construction documents before work begins. Because nearly 70% of building costs for the project would be for concrete and steel, completion of those documents may allow the developer to avoid overruns later.

Related has struggled to find the funding to get the project off the ground. The California Public Employees' Retirement System pulled out of Grand Avenue last year, saying it had too much investment in downtown. But a fund controlled by Dubai's royal family has invested $100 million in Grand Avenue, and Related is seeking an additional equity partner for the project.
Grand Avenue is one of several major developments around the nation that have been delayed because of the credit crunch.

In Seattle, developers recently shelved plans for a $7-billion development, citing the poor economy. Huge projects in Las Vegas, Phoenix and New York City have also been scaled back or delayed, including part of the Gehry-designed Atlantic Yards in Brooklyn and a $14-billion development of the area around Penn Station on Manhattan.

Monday, June 9, 2008

Overstock.com adds real estate listings

Website Overstock.com has added real estate listings to its vast array of offerings, and apparently currently is listing nearly 3 million properties. From an Inman News story:

Overstock.com Inc., which sells excess inventory of consumer goods like clothing and furniture, has entered the real estate space with a dedicated listings channel that claims nearly 3 million properties, including distressed, foreclosure and auction homes.

The Overstock.com real estate channel claims 2.9 million properties, including 2.6 million residential listings. Of those, 1.96 million are single-family homes, 246,000 are condos and townhouses, and another 73,720 are multi-unit properties.

Nearly 300,000 properties are categorized as foreclosures, and another 7,000 as "distressed." The site lists more than 300 homes up for auction.

Some listings receive "O-HotValue" designations, indicating "property that may be a better relative value in this market." Clicking on a listing will often take users to the listing broker's site.

Celebrities endorsing Middle East developments

Apparently the allure of worldwide celebrity has been very successful for splashy projects in the Middle East, especially Dubai. While it's difficult to say if this trend will translate to the U.S. market (it's worked with both positive and negative results leveraging the names of George Clooney and Donald Trump), I could to see it working for certain types of projects. If anyone has a project and is seriously considering a celebrity endorser, let me know -- I have a friend who runs the commercials/endorsements division for one of major talent agencies. From a Wall Street Journal story:

Property developers in this Persian Gulf sheikdom, famous for its grandiose projects, are increasingly turning to American and European celebrities to help sell the properties to wealthy consumers. The latest luminary to lend his name to a development here is Hollywood star Brad Pitt, who will design a five-star hotel and resort for Zabeel Properties, a relatively new company in the lodging industry. The 800-room hotel will feature "environmentally friendly architecture," Mr. Pitt said in a prepared statement. The actor will work with Graft LLC, an architecture firm based in Los Angeles.

Mr. Pitt joins Wimbledon champion Boris Becker, fashion designer Giorgio Armani and golfers Greg Norman and Tiger Woods, among others, who have staked their reputations on helping Dubai property agents lure wealthy foreigners.

Mr. Armani's development, which includes condos and a hotel being built by Emaar Properties, will compete with Palazzo Versace, a hotel that will feature furniture and fittings selected by rival designer Donatella Versace.

"Real-estate branding involving global celebrities is here on a scale that doesn't happen in markets anywhere else," Blair Hagkull, managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle's Middle East unit, told Zawya Dow Jones. "Developers are going to huge extents to attract investors" as competition rises, he says.

Glitzy marketing that uses celebrities to sell homes and fill hotel rooms and office space is no guarantee that the developments will be successful -- and in some cases can even hint of problems ahead. A few years ago in Las Vegas, several splashy condominium projects associated with celebrities -- including Hall of Fame baseball slugger Reggie Jackson and actor George Clooney -- were canceled when it became clear that the market was overbuilt... Sales, so far, remain brisk. Villas attached to a golf course designed and endorsed by Mr. Norman sold out within a week, according to the project's developer. Prices ranged from $4 million to $8 million.

The obsession with celebrity in Dubai's real-estate industry is such that even B-list stars are in demand. The face of Niki Lauda, made famous by a near-fatal racing-car accident in 1976 on the Nurburgring in Germany, will be emblazoned across one of three office towers in Dubai planned by ACI Real Estate...

"Celebrity endorsements make sense where they clearly add value to a project and there's a direct correlation between the celebrity and the development," said LaSalle's Mr. Hagkull.

Lenders finally slashing prices, creating new bidding wars

After months of denying reality, lenders are finally slashing prices to the point that buyers are interested in buying -- in fact, interest has risen to the point that there are now bidding wars for some of these properties. Could that bring the end of the housing bust faster? From an AP story via MSNBC.com:

Lenders stung by the housing bust are slashing prices dramatically to rid themselves of an unprecedented number of foreclosed properties, sparking bidding wars in some places that harken back to the market's go-go years and may signal the bottom is near.

The trend is most dramatic in many parts of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, where prices skyrocketed during the housing boom and are now falling precipitously. Sales of foreclosures, vacant new homes and other distressed properties now dominate some markets, causing grief for individual homeowners who need to sell for other reasons, like a job in a new city.

Nationwide, one out of every four sales between January and March was a distressed sale, and that figure jumps to more than 50 percent in the hardest-hit areas like Las Vegas, Detroit and distant suburbs of Los Angeles, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. The number can be as high as 90 percent in some newly built subdivisions, where loose lending standards and speculation ran rampant, real estate agents say...

By setting prices at extraordinarily low levels, say, $175,000 for a house that sold for $350,000 three years ago, banks can spark multiple offers.

"It's not uncommon to have 10 to 20 offers on one house, and for the house to end up selling for more than its market price," said Erin Attardi, a Sacramento Realtor. The strategy, she said, allows the bank to be selective, picking buyers with solid financing or those able to pay in cash...

Investor demand could be swamped by the foreclosures expected to hit the market over the next year.

A record of almost 3 million American homeowners were at least one month late on their mortgages in the first quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday. And another record of almost 450,000 had entered the final stage of foreclosure...

Some in the real estate industry see such competition as a sign that the housing market's gloom is lifting...

For real estate agents, helping banks sell off properties is one of the only flourishing businesses these days. But it's not for everybody.

Agents can easily pay hundreds of dollars a month on upkeep — including utility bills, cleaning and lawn care — and must go through the hassle of getting reimbursed by the bank. They sometimes have to evict homeowners, tenants or squatters. And in many cases, they have to deal with vandalism or theft of everything from copper pipes to appliances and air conditioners.

Jeff Dolfinger, a broker in Poughkeepsie N.Y., who specializes in managing and selling foreclosed properties, estimates that about 90 percent of those homes in his market are being bought by investors.

"To them, this is the best real estate market ever," he said. "They'll wait for this turmoil to end and they'll put the properties right back on the market again"...

A quick way for a lender to dispose of properties is through an auction. However, lenders lose an average of 56 percent of a property's value through auctions, compared with a 40 percent loss for ordinary sales, according to a report last month by Fitch Ratings.

Nevertheless, the report found that the use of auctions has been rising as lenders try to cope with rising inventory.

Some are more hesitant to cut prices. Chris Bowden, vice president of HomeSteps, a division of Freddie Mac that handles foreclosure sales, says being too aggressive on price can affect the value of nearby properties, which sometimes are also owned by Freddie Mac.

Bargain hunters help push up pending sales index

It looks like prices have dropped enough in certain markets that bargain hunters are re-emerging, raising pending sales during April by 6.3% from the previous month. In the West, the news is even better: pending sales up by 8.3% from March and by 4.0% from April of 2007. From a Wall Street Journal story:

A forecasting gauge of home sales climbed to its highest level in six months during April, given a lift by bargain hunters.

The National Association of Realtors' index for pending sales of previously owned homes rose 6.3% to 88.2 from March, the industry group said Monday...

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said pending sales contracts picked up in areas where housing prices have dropped significantly.

"Bargain hunters have entered the market en masse, especially in areas that have experienced double-digit price declines, but it's unclear if they are investors or owner-occupants," he said.

In its monthly forecast on the industry, the NAR projected existing-home sales at 5.40 million this year and 5.74 million in 2009. That compares with 5.65 million in 2007.

The median price for an existing home is seen at $205,000 in 2008 and $213,900 in 2009. It was $218,900 in 2007.

A month ago, the NAR forecast 2008 sales at 5.39 million and 2009 sales at 5.72 million. The 2008 median price was projected at $213,700 and the 2009 price at $222,600.

The NAR pending sales index, based on signed contracts for previously owned homes, was 13.1% below the level of 101.5 in April 2007...

By region, pending sales in the Northeast decreased 1.9% in April from March; they had fallen 12.2% since April 2007. The Midwest rose 13.0% in April from March; it had dropped 13.1% since April 2007. The South increased 4.6% in April from March; it had fallen 22.5% since April 2007. The West increased 8.3% in April from March; it has gone up 4.0% since April 2007.

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Builders and developers asked to dig deeper to pay down loans

At creditors tighten up lending requirements to builders and developers, many are asking clients to pay down existing loans. For smaller, private builders, this can mean tapping personal assets such as savings accounts, 401k savings and even home equity lines. From a Nation's Building News story:

A recent snapshot of builders and developers in a special survey by the NAHB Economics Group has found that acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) credit has tightened since last year.

In addition, while not a majority, significant numbers of builders and developers have been asked to pay down outstanding construction and land acquisition or development loans, according to the study.

More than 80% of all the respondents reported that the availability of new credit for land acquisition and land development had tightened this year compared to the second half of 2007.

Sixty-nine percent of the respondents said that credit had become more constricted over that timeframe for single-family construction loans, while 29% responded that loan availability remained about the same.

On the multifamily production front, 78% reported worsening conditions for construction loans, and 20% said they had seen no change...

Of those who had been asked to pay down land acquisition or land development loans, personal savings was the source of the money for 54% of the respondents. Twenty-six percent took out equity from an investment property, 21% took out equity from their primary residence and 20% said they borrowed from an investor or sold personal assets.

About 8% of those buying down loans borrowed from their 401(k) accounts and 5% borrowed from a friend or relative.

California drought may put limits on development

The drought in California may soon begin to impact future development in the state, requiring developers to prove they have access to a 20-year supply of water. While some developers have made changes such as drought-tolerant landscaping or even buying future water from farmers, look for this to become an important issue in the years ahead. From a New York Times story:

As California faces one of its worst droughts in two decades, building projects are being curtailed for the first time under state law by the inability of developers to find long-term water supplies... California officials suggested that the actions were only the beginning, and they worry about the impact on a state that has grown into an economic powerhouse over the last several decades.

The state law was enacted in 2001, but until statewide water shortages, it had not been invoked to hold up projects.

While previous droughts and supply problems have led to severe water cutbacks and rationing, water officials said the outright refusal to sign off on projects over water scarcity had until now been virtually unheard of on a statewide scale.

“Businesses are telling us that they can’t get things done because of water,” Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, said in a telephone interview.

On Wednesday, Mr. Schwarzenegger declared an official statewide drought, the first such designation since 1991. As the governor was making his drought announcement, the Eastern Municipal Water District in Riverside County — one of the fastest-growing counties in the state in recent years — gave a provisional nod to nine projects that it had held up for months because of water concerns. The approval came with the caveat that the water district could revisit its decision, and only after adjustments had been made to the plans to reduce water demand...

Also in Riverside County, a superior court judge recently stopped a 1,500-home development project, citing, among others things, a failure to provide substantial evidence of adequate water supply.

In San Luis Obispo County, north of Los Angeles, the City of Pismo Beach was recently denied the right to annex unincorporated land to build a large multipurpose project because, “the city didn’t have enough water to adequately serve the development,” said Paul Hood, the executive officer of the commission that approves the annexations and incorporations of cities.

In agriculturally rich Kern County, north of Los Angeles, at least three developers scrapped plans recently to apply for permits, realizing water was going to be an issue. An official from the county’s planning department said the developers were the first ever in the county to be stymied by water concerns. Large-scale housing developments in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties have met a similar fate, officials in those counties said.

Throughout the state, other projects have been suspended or are being revised to accommodate water shortages, and water authorities and cities have increasingly begun to consider holding off on “will-serve” letters — promises to developers to provide water — for new projects.

“The water in our state is not sufficient to add more demand,” said Lester Snow, the director of the California Department of Water Resources. “And that now means that some large development can’t go forward. If we don’t make changes with water, we are going to have a major economic problem in this state.”...

An eight-year drought in the Colorado River basin has greatly impinged on water supply to Southern California. Of the roughly 1.25 million acre-feet of water that the region normally imports from that river toward the 4.5 million acre-feet it uses each year, 500,000 has been lost to drought, said Jeff Kightlinger, the general manager of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California.

Even more significant, a judge in federal district court last year issued a curtailment in pumping from the California Delta — where the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers meet and provide water to roughly 25 million Californians — to protect a species of endangered smelt that were becoming trapped in the pumps. Those reductions, from December to June, cut back the state’s water reserves this winter by about one third, according to a consortium of state water boards.

The smelt problem was a powerful indicator of the environmental fallout from the delta’s water system, which was constructed over 50 years ago for a far smaller population....

The 2001 state water law, which took effect in 2002, requires developers to prove that new projects have a plan for providing at least 20 years’ worth of water before local water authorities can sign off on them. With the recent problems, more and more local governments are unable to simply approve projects...

As the denied building permits indicate, the lack of sufficient water sources could become a serious threat to economic development in California, where the population in 2020 is projected to reach roughly 45 million people, economists say, from its current 38 million. In the end, as water becomes increasingly scarce, its price will have to rise, bringing with it a host of economic consequences, the economists said...

The water authority for Southern California recently issued a rate increase of 14.3 percent, when including surcharges, which was the highest rate increase in the last 15 years. In Northern California, rates in Marin County increased recently by nearly 10 percent, in part to pay an 11 percent increase in the cost of water bought from neighboring Sonoma County.

Interest groups that oppose development have found that raising water issues is among the many bats in their bags available to beat back projects they find distasteful.

“Certainly from Newhall Ranch’s standpoint, water was a key point that our opponents were focused on,” said Marlee Lauffer, a spokeswoman for Newhall Ranch, a large-scale residential development in the works is Santa Clarita, north of Los Angeles. The City of Los Angeles, among others, has opposed the development.

To get around the problem, Newhall Ranch’s planners decided to forgo water supplied through the state and turn instead to supplies from an extensive water reclamation plant as well as water bought privately. Other developers, like Mr. Jenkins, have changed their landscaping plans to reduce water needs and planned for low-flow plumbing to placate water boards.

The plans calls for water conservation and quality improvement programs, as well as a resource management plan for the delta. Among its most controversial components is $3.5 billion earmarked for new water storage, something that environmentalists have vehemently opposed, in part because they find dams and storage facilities environmentally unsound and not cost effective.

The critics also point out that the state’s agriculture industry, which uses far more water than urban areas, is being asked to contribute little to conservation under the governor’s plans. As more building projects are derailed by water requirements, the pressure on farmers to share more of their water is expected to grow.

Friday, June 6, 2008

Study shows higher gas prices helped bust the housing market

For several years I've been including the question of higher gas prices when studying new development in outlying areas, arguing that infill projects will hold up better in a downturn if they're located closer to employment centers and/or offer access to convenient public transit. A recent study by the group CEO for Cities and profiled on BuilderOnline.com has confirmed this, which I think will prove to be a huge trend for the homebuilding industry moving forward:

In a new study released by CEO for Cities, gas price increases in the last five years are cited as a factor in declining home values and loan defaults in distant suburbs and metropolitan areas with weak central cities.

The study, called “Driven to the Brink: How the Gas Price Spike Popped the Housing Bubble and Devalued the Suburbs,” measured the change in housing prices between the fourth quarter of 2006 and the fourth quarter of 2007, as well as foreclosures and delinquencies, in 20 major markets.

Five markets -- Los Angeles, Chicago, Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Portland, Ore. – were examined in detail. In all five markets, neighborhoods within three miles of the central business district held their home values better than neighborhoods that were 10 miles further out.

CEOs for Cities is a Chicago-based network of corporate, academic, civic, and philanthropic leaders focused on urban strategies for addressing societal issues...

The study also found a “very strong correlation between how strong central cities are and overall economic success,” Cortright says. Core vitality ratings use an index of the concentration of education levels of residents of close-in neighborhoods; a rating of 100 percent on the core vitality index means that the educational level of adults living in neighborhoods within five miles of the center of the central business distract was the same as the education level of the entire metropolitan area, according to the study. New York, Chicago, Seattle, and Portland, markets with strong central cities, were least affected by the housing downturn, with the lowest rate of price decline and delinquency, he says.

From a development perspective, Cortright says the study suggests that it will be much harder to turn a profit on projects in the distant suburbs, and conversely, there will be “much more consumer interest in those closer-in projects.”

Price declines and rising foreclosures now capturing prime borrowers

It looks like we're entering a phase of this housing cycle in which even the more conservative 'prime' borrowers -- those whom are able to document their assets and income and maintain higher credit scores -- are feeling the pain of declining home prices and even at an increasing risk of foreclosure. From a story in the Wall Street Journal:

Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures continued to surpass record levels in the first quarter, as the prolonged decline in home prices and shifting economic conditions trapped a growing number of prime borrowers.

Delinquencies and foreclosures increased at the fastest pace for borrowers with prime adjustable-rate mortgages, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, though borrowers with subprime ARMs still account for the largest share of troubled loans. The number of new prime ARM foreclosures increased by 29,000 to 117,000 in the first quarter, while the number of new subprime ARM foreclosures increased by 20,000 to 195,000. This is the first time prime foreclosures have grown faster than subprime foreclosures, the MBA said...

The increase in delinquencies has been highest in states where there has been a lot of overbuilding, said Jay Brinkmann, the MBA's vice president for research and economics. New subdivisions in those states have seen the biggest price drops, he said, as builders have cut prices to reduce inventories. That has made it more difficult for borrowers in the same or nearby subdivisions to sell or refinance if they get into trouble. About 10% of the homes built after 2000 are now vacant, according to the Census Bureau, compared with roughly 2% of homes built earlier...

Still, the rise in past-due loans was widespread, with delinquencies up year over year in every state except Louisiana. Thirty-nine percent of subprime ARMs and more than 10% of prime adjustables are at least one payment past due. Option ARMs, which carry a low introductory rate but can lead to a rising loan balance, account for much of the rise in delinquent prime ARMs, Mr. Brinkmann said.

The data provide little evidence things will improve soon. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, notes credit-bureau data from April show delinquencies have become "measurably worse" in the second quarter. "The problem now is negative equity combined with a weakening job market," he said, rather than resetting adjustable-rate mortgages.

Falling home prices have exacerbated the problems in the mortgage market by making it more difficult for borrowers who run into trouble to refinance or sell their homes. "The only alternative for them is foreclosure," says Paul Willen, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. "That accounts for a lot of what we are seeing."...

Falling home prices are also making it more difficult for borrowers to tap their equity to pay bills. At LSS Financial Counseling Service, based in Duluth, Minn., the average borrower seeking foreclosure counseling had nearly $17,000 in credit-card debt, compared with about $13,000 two years ago.

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Ouch! KBHome sues investor McFarlane Partners

According to an AP story, homebuilder KBHome has sued real estate investment firm McFarlane Partners over suspended payments at several Southern California area condominium projects. And to think the building industry used to be somewhat friendly to one another (at least in the press):

Homebuilder KB Home sued real estate investment firm MacFarlane Partners LLC for failing to contribute some $52 million toward the development of three condominium complexes, according to court papers obtained Thursday. MacFarlane and KB Home had agreed to share the construction bill for the complexes in Anaheim, Irvine and the San Fernando Valley, but the investment firm ceased payments in late 2007, leaving the homebuilder to cover the shortfalls, according to the Superior Court lawsuit filed last week.

The lawsuit, which claims MacFarlane and its affiliates failed to honor contractual and fiduciary obligations, lists compensatory damages totaling more than $100 million.

San Francisco-based MacFarlane spokesman Doug Holm did not immediately return a call seeking comment.

KB spokeswoman Lindsay Stephenson said the Los Angeles-based company is working on a strategy to complete the projects, which are in various stages of construction, without MacFarlane as a partner.

Banks about to face the real estate music

According to a story in the Wall Street Journal, the second phase of financial pain from the real estate bust is about to begin: whereas phase one was focused on the 'demand' side (i.e., homebuyers & mortgages), phase two will be centered on the 'supply' side (i.e., banks forced to mark their real estate collateral to current pricing). As Ivy Zelman concludes, "...this period of procrastination is nearly over."

Federal regulators warned Thursday that banking-industry turmoil would continue as financial institutions come to terms with piles of bad loans they made to finance the construction of homes and condominiums.

Until now, most of the damage to banks from the housing crisis has come from homeowners defaulting on their mortgages. But amid a dismal spring sales season for new homes, loans to home and condo builders are looking increasingly shaky. Banks have begun to dump them at what will likely be steep discounts, setting the stage for billions of dollars in fresh losses...

The surprisingly gloomy outlook is at odds with the sentiment of investors, who appear to have moved on from worrying about the health of the financial system to obsessing about gasoline prices and consumer spending. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 213.97 points, or 1.7%, on Thursday on the back of surprisingly strong retail-sales data.

The health of the economy is heavily dependent on the willingness of banks and other financial institutions to lend to consumers and businesses. Many banks have already taken substantial losses, and either will have to pare their lending or raise new capital to rebuild their safety nets. The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department have been pressing banks to raise capital so as not to further reduce lending.

Banks with swelling portfolios of troubled loans tied to land and housing are struggling to unload some of their real-estate debt. IndyMac Bancorp Inc., a Pasadena, Calif., lender, is trying to sell $540 million in loans made to finance land purchases and housing construction projects. Winning bids on many of the loans were, on average, about 60 cents on the dollar, according to people familiar with the matter. But some winning bids were only about 20 cents on the dollar...

The sales are a response to a growing problem: Home builders are falling behind on loan payments, and the value of the land and housing developments that serve as loan collateral is plummeting. Over the next five years, U.S. banks could "charge off" as bad debt between 10% and 26% of their loans tied to residential construction and land assets, which would amount to about $65 billion to $165 billion, according to a report sent to clients Thursday by housing research firm Zelman & Associates. That compares with charge-offs of about 10% of construction-related bank assets, totaling $31.6 billion, when adjusted for inflation, during the last housing downturn in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In 2007 and the first quarter of this year, banks wrote down just 0.7% of such assets, according to Zelman...

The prospect of a new wave of losses worries federal regulators, given the large proportion of loans to housing developers held by many banks and thrifts. The problems are worse at small banks that can't easily absorb losses, and at banks with big exposure in states hit hard by the housing crisis. Banks in Arizona have 36% of their total loans tied to construction and development. In Georgia that number is 34%, and in North Carolina it's 28%. Zelman said construction and development loans, as a percentage of total loans, are at their highest levels since at least 1975.

IndyMac is trying to sell debt backed by a grab bag of assets, including partially built subdivisions, condo buildings and large parcels of raw land covered in sagebrush in parts of California, where the housing crisis is acute, according to people familiar with the offering.

Selling real-estate loans could help larger lenders like IndyMac shore up their balance sheets. But such sales, by setting a market value for distressed real-estate loans, could trigger problems at smaller banks with real-estate exposure, which might have a difficult time absorbing such losses...

Real-estate lenders had been hoping for a decent spring sales season for new homes, which would have helped builders stay current on their loans. But the selling season has been a bust. The rate of foreclosures on homeowners hit a record, as did the rate at which they fell behind on their mortgage payments. In the first quarter, 6.35% of mortgages were at least 30 days delinquent, not including those already in foreclosure, a rise of 1.51 percentage points from the year-earlier period.

"We've seen a real change in the market," says Ricardo Chance, a managing director at KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, who is helping troubled builders restructure their businesses. "Finally the banks are capitulating and saying, 'Let's mark to market and flush this all out.' The market is going to get worse. We don't want to hold on to this stuff."

KBHome returning to its roots

There's a very interesting (and lengthy) story in the current issue of Fortune magazine (and available at CNNMoney.com) about homebuilder KBHome and how it, like other builders, rode the wave of the housing bubble by building increasingly pricey homes. In the process, however, it moved away from its core product, namely entry-level and first-time-move-up homes that were affordable enough to often compete with the rental housing stock. There are also a lot of swipes at former CEO Bruce Karatz, so it'll be interesting to hear what former KB alum have to say about this article:

During the bubble, KB Home (KBH, Fortune 500), like many other big builders, blew up its old-line business by going ritzy and building expensive houses. Now KB is among the first homebuilders to recognize the error of its ways, and it is returning to its roots as a purveyor of low-cost, smaller homes. In some cases KB is even using the same façades from the go-go years and then shrinking the house that lurks behind them to be half as deep - and about half as expensive. "If I had to write a headline for housing, it would be back to basics," says Broad. "The right thing to do is just what KB is doing: build starter homes that compete with rentals."

KB's recovery plan is not just a tale of two houses. It is a tale of two CEOs. During the bubble Bruce Karatz, a flamboyant marketer, believed that the public's hunger for McMansions would keep the good times rolling for years to come. It was his successor, Jeff Mezger, a hammer-and-studs operator, who recognized that the world had gone mad and steered KB back to first-time buyers. That strategy shift may prove to be a primer on how the housing market rejuvenates itself after a boom and a bust...

In hindsight, the reason for the current malaise is simple: too few buyers. By 2007 more and more people were frozen out of the market - especially the entry-level buyers, who now account for as much as 30% of new-home sales. They're the twentysomething young professionals who rent until they get married or the first child arrives, and then reach for the American dream of homeownership. From 2005 to 2006 some first-timers rushed to purchase homes they couldn't afford with the help of exotic loans. But another big group of young consumers steered clear and are finally looking to buy. Now that prices of new houses have fallen as much as 30% in areas including the Inland Empire and the outskirts of Phoenix, they are returning- prompting a turning point in the housing cycle. Call it the New Affordability...

Today seven in ten KB customers are getting financing from the FHA. The current rates are below 6%, more than 100 basis points under those on jumbo mortgages not backed by the FHA or Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. (Fannie and Freddie lend less readily to people with past credit problems and hence aren't as crucial to the entry-level market as FHA financing.) Congress has raised the FHA limit to $729,750 in high-cost areas like Los Angeles through the end of 2008. But even if the limits aren't extended, virtually all the houses KB sells are priced for an FHA loan...

Bargain-hunters are drawn to these small houses, which look just like the behemoths built in 2005 and 2006. In Beaumont, a community of tract homes 70 miles east of Los Angeles, the Seneca Springs community is dotted with 4,000-square-foot, seven-bedroom Mediterranean homes that KB built at the peak. But right next to them the company is erecting new houses with exactly the same 50-foot façades- and a big difference you don't notice from the street: They're about half as deep and roughly 2,000 square feet. Those homes preserve the community's curb appeal by keeping the façades looking similar and sumptuous...

During the bubble KB lost its way. Building big, pricey homes wasn't a mistake- that's what the public wanted. The real problem was that management misread the future: It bought the illusion that the frenzy would last, and gorged on overpriced land. Management's grandiose thinking also pushed KB into splashy new businesses far from its traditions...

Market forces were partly to blame for KB's detour in 2005 and 2006. Builders could sell all the $400,000 homes they wanted, and the margins on those McMansions were a lot fatter than on small houses, chiefly because they could build them on virtually the same small lots as the old-fashioned starter houses. Still, some of the blame for KB's losing its way belongs to the CEO who succeeded Broad, his protégé Bruce Karatz...

In November 2006, KB also promoted its longtime COO, Jeff Mezger, to CEO. In contrast to the flashy Karatz, Mezger is a brick-and-mortar operator...It was Mezger who shifted KB's focus back to the customer who built the franchise, the first-time homebuyer. His coup was making the turn to affordability before such competitors as Centex (CTX, Fortune 500) and Ryland Homes (RYL). "By late 2005 we could see credit was tightening and investors were no longer buying," says Mezger. So he pitched his strategy toward producing the old KB product. "We needed to build houses priced for the median incomes of our communities," says Mezger. "We got away from that in 2004 to 2006." He also strove to build big financial reserves to provide KB with the staying power to weather the stricken market, for several years if needed. Hence, KB sold off huge landholdings and thousands of homes at a loss...

KB is booking those losses because it's been selling homes and lots at well below the amount it spent to build or buy them. But it put out that cash years ago. Now Mezger is building fewer homes and acquiring less land than in the past. So despite the accounting losses, KB is taking in far more cash than it's putting out. As a result, it has increased its cash hoard from $700 million to $1.3 billion and has reduced debt by almost $1 billion, or 33%, in the past 18 months...

Today both land and construction costs are falling rapidly. In California's Inland Empire, the price per finished lot has collapsed, plunging from $150,000 at the peak to about $50,000. Labor costs, the single biggest expense after land, are also dropping as construction trades look for work. In Florida, construction costs for a 2,000-square-foot home have dropped to $80,000, vs. $100,000 at the peak, a 20% reduction. The result is that the average sales price there has fallen from $275,000 to $215,000. In the inland areas of Southern California it has dropped from $350,000 to $260,000. Additionally, KB is cutting costs by assembling homes from prefabricated 12- and 16-foot panels that are hoisted into place with cranes. That wasn't possible when buyers coveted fancier houses with custom elements.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

'Shadow' rental market now accounts for 50% of vacancies?

A few months ago, I wrote about the future 'shadow' rental market in my column for Builder & Developer magazine and the impact it would have on the traditional apartment market -- namely higher vacancies and a squeeze on rental rates that would see a return of lease incentives.

I recently lived through this 'shadow' market with a small income property I have in Long Beach, CA, which has been in my family since 1980. Located within two miles of both CSULB (30,000 students) and the beach, the occasional vacancy would never take more than a couple of weeks to fill. But when a couple of failed conversion projects hit the market, they suddenly unloaded scores of recently upgraded apartment units -- including granite countertops and new appliances -- onto the marketplace. Suddenly that two-week vacancy turned into over two months, and to fill it I had to forget about any price hike from the previous lease.

Similar stories are now hitting other markets throughout the country -- generally where the housing market was the frothiest. From an MSNBC story:

Renters may be the biggest winners in the current housing slump, especially in places like Florida, Las Vegas and Southern California, that have thousands of vacant for-sale and foreclosed homes and condos on the market.

Apartment vacancies are edging up in many areas of the country as frustrated sellers instead try to rent out their homes and condos in once red-hot housing markets. And that is making it harder for landlords to raise rents. In the toughest markets, apartment owners are even offering lease incentives to snag renters.

This "shadow market" of investor-owned homes and condos accounts for almost half of the rental stock, and attracts displaced homeowners more often than your typical apartment renter...

After staying relatively flat last year, apartment vacancies bumped up in the first quarter from the end of last year, the research showed. The vacancy rate is expected to rise by a half-percent this year to 6.1 percent as the market absorbs about 3.3 million more rental home and condo units...

The national trend, however, belies what's happening in the country's most beleaguered housing markets. Areas that experienced explosive condo development and conversions of apartments into condos for sale are finding those units unloaded onto the rental market because developers can't sell them.Sharp increases in vacancy rates plague most Florida markets where condo development was rampant. In Jacksonville, for example, rental vacancies spiked to more than 10 percent in the first quarter, up from 5.8 percent in the prior year. Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale had the next biggest gains in vacancies..

In San Diego, single-family homes being placed on the rental market are hurting luxury apartment communities, said Rick Snyder, president of the California Apartment Association.

The new supply is preventing some landlords from increasing rents, and other are even being forced to offer freebies like one free month with a one-year lease or upgraded unit fixtures...

But there could be some unseen risks behind these bargain shadow rentals. Renters who got homes or condos on the cheap may find a sheriff knocking at the door with an eviction notice if their landlord fails to pay the mortgage...

Meanwhile, renters in some of the costliest cities aren't getting any relief, to their dismay. Rents in pricey San Francisco surged 11.5 percent last year, while New York rents shot up 9 percent and rents in San Jose, Calif., climbed 8.7 percent, Marcus & Millichap said.

Las Vegas developer blogs back with "Frothing Developer"