The Housing Chronicles Blog: Case-Shiller numbers by metro area

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Case-Shiller numbers by metro area

The Developments blog at the Wall Street Journal has summarized the most recent changes in the Case-Shiller index by metro area. I've sorted them by level of pain below:

Metro Area May 2008 Change from April YOY Change
Las Vegas 161.04 -2.90% -28.40%
Miami 193.19 -3.60% -28.30%
Phoenix 157.32 -2.50% -26.50%
Los Angeles 198.59 -1.90% -24.50%
San Diego 178.03 -1.40% -23.20%
San Francisco 162.7 -1.20% -22.90%
Tampa 177.14 -0.80% -20.20%
Detroit 92.61 -1.20% -17.40%
Washington 199.23 -1.00% -15.40%
Minneapolis 140.12 0.60% -14.80%
Chicago 150.03 -0.30% -9.40%
Cleveland 108.88 -0.60% -8.00%
Atlanta 124.41 0.60% -7.90%
New York 193.88 -0.50% -7.90%
Seattle 178.67 -0.50% -6.30%
Boston 160.35 1.00% -6.20%
Portland 175.53 0.40% -5.20%
Denver 129.72 1.00% -4.80%
Dallas 121.61 1.00% -3.10%
Charlotte 133.16 1.00% -0.20%

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, a closely watched gauge of U.S. home prices, show price declines continued to worsen in May, with every region measured showing year-over-year drops for the second straight month.

According to the indices, home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell by a record 17% from a year earlier and 1% from April. In 20 major metropolitan areas, home prices dropped 16% from a year earlier — another record drop — and 0.9% from April.

Seven areas managed to avoid price declines for the month, with the Boston, Charlotte, Dallas and Denver regions all posting 1% increases. Charlotte and Dallas are the only areas to have three consecutive months of month-to-month growth. Boston, Portland and Denver have had two straight months of increases.

Year-over-year, Las Vegas and Miami were again the weakest markets, each posting 28% declines. They were also the worst performers month-to-month, with Las Vegas down 2.9% and Miami dropping 3.6%.

Here in L.A., the annual drop was 24.50%. There are some theories abounding that we may hit a bottom in pricing earlier than in previous housing busts and then bump along the bottom before slowly rising after 2010 to 2012.

I also keep seeing comments on blogs that renting is much cheaper than buying, etc., and how smart people were early in the decade to wait this cycle out. But in my case, I'd spend 42% more to RENT my own home today than what I currently pay for my mortgage, taxes and HOA fees -- and that's before factoring in the tax advantages of homeownership.

Of course I bought in 2003, so that makes a big difference, but I'd still argue that once home prices offer cash-flow neutrality for income property investors, that should help create some type of pricing floor, so it's hard for me to imagine falling to 2001 prices without investors rushing in to take advantage much earlier. The wild card? Lack of credit, which could likely lead to an over-correction in income property prices and reward cash buyers.

2 comments:

utahdave said...

So interesting seeing things up..and now down.

Salt Lake Real Estate Blog - Tony Fantis said...

And now, we're just starting to see the activity pick up in some of those cities. Most people will wait until its too late to get the real deals. But savvy buyers are moving into these markets with guided caution. Excellent opportunities!