The Housing Chronicles Blog: When boomers bust

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

When boomers bust

There's a theory abounding out there in the blogosphere that since the baby boom generation of 78 million drove the housing boom and the quest for larger homes in various suburbs, that their future retirement (which is starting now) and potential downsizing will mean a marked decline in future demand.

But it hasn't been until now that a detailed, state-by-state analysis has been done. As covered in USA Today, USC professor Dowell Meyers says that the midwest and the northeast will be the first casualties (2006-2010) with California avoiding the change in demand until 2021:

In the next two decades, as millions of aging baby boomers put their homes on the market, they'll put downward pressure on prices, and their exodus will reshape neighborhoods and cities coast to coast, according to research released Wednesday.

In some states, the trend has already begun, making it harder for areas to recover from the real estate recession, which isn't expected to bottom out until the second half of this year at the earliest.

There are already more sellers than buyers in six states: Connecticut, New York (excluding Manhattan), North Dakota, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Hawaii. The trend first hits areas with cold weather and traffic congestion, which tend to drive retirees away...

Last hit should be warm-weather states, such as Florida, Arizona and Nevada, where retirees usually sell late in life. That's good news for homeowners in those states, where prices and sales are reeling from the collapse of the real estate bubble...

"It's most pertinent to declining parts of the country," said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution who agrees with Myers' conclusions. "The glut of homes on the market from baby boomers will depress the housing market and have an impact on some suburban neighborhoods that will come to look like older city neighborhoods that have undergone blight and disrepair."

The math is simple: 79 million boomers have driven up housing demand. That trend will reverse itself when boomers are age 65 to 75; there will be three sellers for each buyer, Myers says.

REAL ESTATE CROSSOVERS
When selling will exceed buying for each state
2006-
2010
2011-
2015
2016-
2020
2021-2025
2026-
2030
2031-
later
CT
MA
IA
CA
AL
AK
HI

LA
IL
KS
AZ
NY

NE
ME
KY
AR
ND

NJ
MT
MD
CO
PA

OH
SD
MI
DE
WV

RI
VT
MS
FL



WY
NM
GA




OK
ID




WI
IN





MN





MO





NH





NV





NC





OR





SC





TN





TX





UT





VA





WA
Source: Dowell Myers, Sung Ho Ryu, Univ. of Southern Calif.

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